MBG Markets：新西兰联储加码宽松，避险资产迎狂欢夜

　　
油价走低影响经济前景，加央行降息概率上升(USD/CAD)
　　
Technical aspect:美元兑加元上一交易日震幅达75Individual points, closing up0.25%。 Daily lineBOLL(20)趋于开口，布林中轨趋于上行，汇价持续于中轨上方运行；日线MA5,10,20Construct multi period golden fork resonance,MA5,10双线趋于上行，汇价运行于MA5上方；日线MACD(12,26,9)阳柱势能较前一交易日缩减；日线RSI(14)短暂上探超买区域后回落，于64-65一线运行，运行斜率较大趋于进一步下行。短期或有技术修复需求，但回撤突破10日均线前，整体多头形态稳固。上方阻力关注1.3350Below support attention10日均线得失。
　　
Fundamentals:Canada7monthIveyAfter seasonal adjustmentPMIRecorded54.2，优于市场预期53及前值52.4。但经济数据的强劲并未让市场机构放弃对加央行的鸽派预期。加拿大帝国商业银行称，将加拿大央行降息的预期由2020年第二季度提前至2020年第一季度。德意志银行同样认为，加拿大近来异常强劲的数据表现很有可能会反转，加拿大央行降息预期将升温。受全球经济前景低迷、需求预期下降以及季节性影响，油价持续深跌。低迷油价将拖累加拿大通胀上行动能及经济前景。据悉，加拿大为发达经济体中最大的crude oil出口国；每年的出口贸易中，原油及其制品占有很高的权重。
　　
新西兰联储加码宽松，纽元单日大跌(NZD/USD)
　　
Technical aspect:纽元兑美元上一交易日震幅达180Points, closing down1.25%。 Daily lineBOLL(20)趋于开口，布林中轨趋于下行，汇价短暂刺破布林下轨后触发低位买盘，日线收出较长下影线；日线MA5,10,20Construct multi period dead fork resonance,MA5,10Double track trend downward, exchange rate under pressureMA5Below; Daily lineMACD(12,26,9)阴柱势能较大，势能无明显增减；日线RSI(14)to27-28一线运行，跌至超卖区间。上方阻力关注0.6500整数关口，下方支撑关注昨日低点0.6375。
　　
Fundamentals:昨日亚盘时段，新西兰联储降息50个基点至纪录新低1%，鸽派程度远超市场预期。消息发布后，NZDUSD短线崩跌100余点并持续下挫，创出2009年以来新低。新西兰联储声明称：预计2020年第四季度官方现金利率（OCR）跌至0.91%（大幅低于上期的1.36%），预期显示，存在进一步降息25个基点的可能性。西太平洋银行、新西兰ASB银行均预计新西兰联储将于11Monthly interest rate reduction25Bps to0.75%。凯投宏观预计新西兰联储将于在明年2月将降息25Basis points.
　　
避险资产狂欢夜，金价上测1510position(XAU/USD)
　　
Technical aspect:goldThe previous trading day's amplitude reached359Individual points, closing up1.68%，探及1510位置后回落。日线BOLL(20)趋于开口，布林中轨趋于上行，汇价连续三个交易日于布林上轨上方极端超买位置运行；日线MA5,10,20Construct multi period golden fork resonance,MA5,10双线趋于上行，汇价运行于MA5上方；日线MACD(12,26,9)阳柱势能较大，势能较前一交易日增大；日线RSI(14)to69-70一线运行，运行斜率较大趋于下行。上方阻力关注1510前高位置，下方支撑关注5Daily moving average position1477Near.
　　
Fundamentals:Panic indexVIX指数上一交易日收跌3.37%, closing on19.49； Forward looking gold price indicator Barrick Gold Company(NYSE:ABX)The stock price closed up on the previous trading day2.73%, closing on18.05；全球最大的黄金ETFFund: United StatesSPDR Gold Trustto8month8日增持8.50吨黄金，连续三日增持，净持仓量增至845.42吨。隔夜，因长期国债收益率大跌，美债收益率倒挂程度再次飙升，现接近73%，与科技股和楼市泡沫破灭时一样高。机构分析称，目前全球范围利率低企，美元走软、贸易紧张局势、波斯湾地区地缘政治冲突等，均使黄金价格得到支撑。
　　
　　
　　
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