MBG Markets：澳联储按兵不动澳元仍低迷，黄金多头情绪高涨

　　
澳联储按兵不动，澳元投机者信心仍低迷(AUD/USD)
　　
Technical aspect:澳元兑美元上一交易日震幅达48个点，日线收平，今日亚盘时段延续此前跌势。日线BOLL(20)趋于开口，布林中轨趋于下行，汇价持续贴近布林下轨，未见任何筑底迹象；日线MA5,10,20Construct multi period dead fork resonance,MA5,10The double track tends to decline; Daily lineMACD(12,26,9)The potential energy of the Yin column is relatively large, and the potential energy is reduced compared to the previous trading day; Daily lineRSI(14)to19-20一线运行，运行斜率较大趋于下行。AUDUSD在破位D点水平位置后加速下行，此前震荡上行形态正式告破。建议以连续两日收于5日均线上方为短期止跌信号，下方关注前低0.6740。
　　
Fundamentals:澳洲联储昨日维持利率水平不变，声明中强调：为了在降低失业率并在实现通胀目标的进程中确保取得更多的进展，在更长一段时间内保持低利率是合理的；若有必要将进一步宽松。机构普遍预期澳洲联储下次“放松”不会太远。根据摩根士丹利仓位追踪报告：AUD空仓规模迅速增大，近一周以来情绪指标的下挫程度在G10货币中最为严重，AUD短期内有进一步下行风险。德银发布报告称，过去20年，按月度表现计，AUD/JPYstay8月表现最差。这种季节性的强弱规律会加剧当前短期局势和风险资产价格变化所带来的冲击。
　　
市场敏感度下降，英镑低位盘整(GBP/USD)
　　
Technical aspect:英镑兑美元上一交易日震幅达72Individual points, closing up0.12%。 Daily lineBOLL(20)布林中轨趋于下行，汇价持续承压于中轨下方；日线MA5,10,20Construct multi period dead fork resonance,MA5趋于走高；日线MACD(12,26,9)阴柱势能较小，势能较前一交易日缩减；日线RSI(14)to30-31一线运行，艰难自超卖区间向上抬升。上方阻力关注5日均线得失（较长时间横盘后5日均线趋平有望告破），下方关注下图所示ABC段斐波那契拓展线100%position1.2115。
　　
Fundamentals:欧盟外交人员称，英国首相约翰逊表示，不打算重新协商脱欧协议，无协议脱欧是其核心设想。但另有一名英国政府高级官员透露，英国希望达成脱欧协议，欧盟不愿意和英国在脱欧协议上协商。在脱欧进程消息持续轰炸后，市场投机者对脱欧信息敏感度明显下滑。富国银行：由于英国无协议脱欧风险上升，本行有可能会放弃此前对英央行于明年加息的预期。并预计英央行在2020年底前将维持关键利率在0.75%水平不变。据CME“英国央行观察”：英国央行9Monthly interest rate maintained at0.75%The constant probability is93%Interest rate reduction25Bps to0.5%的概率为7%。
　　
多头情绪坚决，gold涨势不休(XAU/USD)
　　
Technical aspect:黄金上一交易日震幅达209Individual points, closing up0.19%。 Daily lineBOLL(20)趋于开口，布林中轨趋于上行，金价于布林上轨上方极端超买位置运行；日线MA5,10,20Construct multi period golden fork resonance,MA5,10双线趋于上行，金价运行于MA5上方；日线MACD(12,26,9)阳柱势能较大，势能较前一交易日增大；日线RSI(14)to70-71一线运行，贴近超买区域。如下图所示以AB点构筑斐波那契回调线，反向外部-27.0%Location is1502，贴近1500整数关口。下方支撑关注1452Attention to resistance above1500-1502Location.
　　
Fundamentals:Panic indexVIX指数上一交易日大幅收跌17.97%, closing on20.17； Forward looking gold price indicator Barrick Gold Company(NYSE:ABX)股价上一交易日收跌0.11%, closing on17.57；全球最大的黄金ETFFund: United StatesSPDR Gold Trustto8month7日增持1.76吨黄金，净持仓量增至836.92吨。美银美林在一份报告中表示，对明年第二季度的黄金价格预期相对保守，预计为1500dollar/盎司，但有上涨至2000dollar/盎司的空间；该行指出，连续几轮的货币政策宽松产生了一系列负作用，除了不断下降的利率，约有14万亿的债务收益率目前为负，这是近期黄金价格上涨的主要推动因素。
　　
　　
　　
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