MBG Markets：风险厌恶情绪席卷市场，避险资产表现亮眼

　　
7月非制造业指数爆雷，降息概率骤升美指连跌(DXY)
　　
Technical aspect:美元指数上一交易日震幅达70Points, closing down0.61%，收出日线三连阴。日线BOLL(20)布林中轨趋于走平，汇价隔夜一度上破中轨后回落，收于中轨下方；日线MA5,10双线趋黏合，MA5趋于下行，汇价承压于MA5Below; Daily lineMACD(12,26,9)DIFFOffline threadingDEA构死叉，阳柱翻阴；日线RSI(14)to48-49一线运行，运行斜率较大趋于下行。构筑自6month25日起的本轮反弹的斐波那契回调线。日内阻力关注布林中轨位置，下方支撑关注61.8%Callback position97.15。
　　
Fundamentals:U.S.A7monthISMNon manufacturingPMIIndex recorded53.7, refresh from2016year8月以来最低水平。表明制造业的疲软状况有进一步向更核心的服务业蔓延的趋势。随着美国各项经济指标持续走恶，市场对美联储9月再次降息的预期升温。据CME“美联储观察”显示，市场预计美联储9月降息概率为100%Federal Reserve9Monthly interest rate reduction50个基点的概率从昨日早间的2.7%Ascend to28.1%。顶级评级机构穆迪认为，美国的关税将对包括电脑和电子、制造业、服装和皮革在内的美国行业产生负面影响；贸易紧张局势将使得美联储进一步降息变得更有可能。
　　
风险厌恶情绪升温，全球资金跑步避险(XAU/USD)
　　
Technical aspect:goldThe previous trading day's amplitude reached360Individual points, closing up2.38%, Chuangjin6年新高。日线BOLL(20)趋于开口，布林中轨趋于上行，金价升破信赖区间，于布林上轨上方极端超买位置运行；日线MA5,10,20Construct multi period golden fork resonance,MA5,10双线趋于上行，金价运行于MA5上方；日线MACD(12,26,9)DIFFOnline threadingDEA构金叉，阳柱势能较前一交易日增大；日线RSI(14)to63-64一线运行，接近超买区间。上方阻力关注1500整数关口，下方支撑关注前期震荡区间上沿1452。
　　
Fundamentals:Panic indexVIX指数上一交易日收涨39.64%, closing on24.59； Forward looking gold price indicator Barrick Gold Company(NYSE:ABX)The stock price closed up on the previous trading day4.08%, closing on17.60；全球最大的黄金ETFFund: United StatesSPDR Gold Trustto8month6日增持4.40吨黄金，净持仓量增至835.16吨。隔夜，国债收益率曲线传递危机信号，美国3Month period and10年期国债收益率倒挂程度为2007year4月来最大，德国、新西兰、韩国、英国等多国债券收益率跌至纪录新低。市场风险厌恶情绪骤升，全球资金自股市出逃，国债、黄金等避险资产表现亮眼。
　　
避险买需对抗宽松预期，日元大涨稍显后继乏力(USD/JPY)
　　
Technical aspect:The USD/JPY experienced a significant fluctuation in the previous trading day110Points, closing down0.9%。 Daily lineBOLL(20)趋于开口，汇价短暂跌至布林下轨下方但迅速回升；日线MA5,10,20Construct multi period dead fork resonance,MA5,10Double track trend downward, exchange rate under pressureMA5Below; Daily lineMACD(12,26,9)阴柱势能较大，势能较前一交易日增大；日线RSI(14)to35-36一线运行，运行斜率较大趋于走高。包括BOLL、RSI等主流指标在内，出现了极为短暂的“超卖”信号，今日亚盘时段美元兑日元的走高基本收复昨日跌幅，若今日收于日内高位，可视作短期止跌依据。上方阻力关注5日均线位置，下方支撑关注昨日低点105.50。
　　
Fundamentals:日本财务省官员称，当前市场趋势似乎显示日元强势，若市场波动对经济产生负面影响，将采取行动，不排除干预foreign exchange市场的可能性（日本央行及财务省官员普遍认为过于强势的日元不利于经济发展）。北欧联合银行发布报告称：日本央行的收益率曲线控制已经成了一个大问题；由于其他主要的央行纷纷倾向于宽松政策，鸽派氛围无形中使得日本央行的政策显得相对鹰派。据悉，日本央行已在7month30日货币政策会议上指出，经济前景和实现物价稳定目标的势头被损害的风险提高之际，将“毫不犹豫”地追加货币宽松措施。
　　
　　
　　
Risk Statement and Important Notes
交易外汇保证金和差价合约交易涉及高风险，未必适合所有投资者。阁下可能会在交易时遇到损失超过本金的情况。
The above content is general information and does not take into account your investment objectives, financial condition, or other needs; It does not constitute any invitation to invest or buy or sell financial products. Before you make an investment decision,MBG MarketsWe suggest that you seek independent financial advice. Meanwhile,MBG MarketsWe shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses arising from the use of this review/Liability or obligation resulting from or damage.
You are making a decision to selectMBG MarketsPlease read carefully before providing the financial productsMBG MarketsAnd confirm full understanding of the transaction in accordance with the terms and conditions and product disclosure statementMBG Markets金融产品的相关风