MBG Markets：美国二季度GDP意外利好，美元走强非美承压

　　
二季度GDP好于预期，美元涨势不休(DXY)
　　
Technical aspect:美元指数上一交易日震幅达43Individual points, closing up0.11%。 Daily lineBOLL(20)布林中轨趋于上行，汇价连续4个交易日贴近布林上轨运行；日线MA5,10,20Construct multi period golden fork resonance,MA5,10双线趋于上行，汇价运行于MA5上方；日线MACD(12,26,9)阳柱势能较前一交易日增大；日线RSI(14)to64-65一线运行，运行斜率较大趋于走高。上方关注前期高点98.50Below support attention5日均线得失，短期滞涨建议以回撤突破5日均线为信号。
　　
Fundamentals:US Q2 ActualGDPRecorded initial value of annualized quarterly rate2.1%，显著优于市场预期1.8，且优于亚特兰大联储、纽约联储GDPNowcast模型的评估。评论认为，美国经济在二季度运行良好，但不会缓解市场对贸易紧张或全球经济放缓的担忧，也不会改变美联储在7月会议上降息的决定。美国第二季度实际个人消费支出季率初值录得4.3%，优于市场预期且较前值0.8%大幅增长，为2017年第四季度以来最大增幅，消费支出大幅上升抵消了出口下滑带来的负面影响，助力整体GDP数据录得亮眼表现。
　　
经济及通胀前景预期遭削，欧元延续跌势(EUR/USD)
　　
Technical aspect:The previous trading day saw a significant fluctuation in the euro against the US dollar39Points, closing down0.16%。 Daily lineBOLL(20)趋于开口，布林中轨趋于下行，汇价持续贴近布林下轨走低；日线MA5,10,20Construct multi period dead fork resonance,MA5,10The double track tends to decline; Daily lineMACD(12,26,9)The potential energy of the Yin column has decreased compared to the previous trading day; Daily lineRSI(14)to33-34一线运行，运行斜率较小趋于走平。周内欧元唯一一次上探，小幅破位5日均线后重回跌势。在汇价企稳5日均线上方之前，行情难言见底。下方支撑关注前低1.1100Integer level.
　　
Fundamentals:欧洲央行：前瞻经济学家确认2019年欧元区经济增速预期为1.2%，下调2020yearGDP增速预期至1.3%（此前预计为1.4%）；削减欧元区通胀前景，下调欧元区长期通胀预期为1.7%。主流观点认为，欧元区有望在未来几月推出的宽松计划，将使EURUSD持续承压。丹斯克银行观点相对乐观，认为如果欧央行在9月份降息的同时实施分层利率，将能减轻欧元的负面影响；在其它条件相同的情况下，美联储降息和下半年周期性企稳也将构成欧元兑美元的支撑因素。
　　
仓位数据显支撑，日元震荡收平(USD/JPY)
　　
Technical aspect:The USD/JPY experienced a significant fluctuation in the previous trading day27个点，日线收平。日线BOLL(20)布林中轨趋于上行，汇价于中轨上方运行；日线MA5,10构金叉，MA5,10双线趋于上行，汇价于今日亚盘回测5日均线位置；日线MACD(12,26,9)阳柱势能较前一交易日缩减，DIFF、DEA双线持续走高；日线RSI(14)to53-54一线运行，稍高于荣枯线但斜率趋于下行。下方支撑关注布林中轨位置108.20Attention to resistance above109.00前高及整数关口。
　　
Fundamentals:Japan6月季调后零售销售环比持平，同比增长0.5%，双双优于市场预期，但逊于前值读数。日本内阁官房长官菅义伟26日称，日方正推进把韩国排除出贸易“白色清单”（视为安全保障层面的“友好国家”）的程序。日韩贸易争端或将进一步升级。野村证券称，美国债市、股市积累了大量多头头寸；认为随着投资者调整仓位，美股和美债市场整体将偏向卖出（理论上这种情形将利多日元）。据CFTC持仓报告，截止至7month17Solstice7month23日当周：投机者持有的日元投机性净空头减少2003Hand contract, to9377手合约，表明投资者看空日元的意愿降温。
　　
　　
　　
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