一周后,美联储可能会宣布自2008年以来的首次降息。鉴于市场的预估,此举实际上已成定局。futures交易员给出了100%的降息概率。争论的焦点是降息幅度:标准降息25The probability of one basis point is76.5%Interest rate reduction50The probability of one basis point is23.5%。由于鲍威尔没有采取任何行动来改变这些预期,如果美联储不想扰乱金融市场的话,那么降息可能势在必行,然而,降息50个基点听起来有点过头了,因为经济还没有陷入衰退。
Federal Open Market Committee(FOMC)的非对称做法现在应该很明显了。大衰退结束后,美联储官员花了6年时间才开始正常化进程。他们是否回到了危机前的状态?他们设法将利率提高到2.4%,低于金融危机前5.25%的一半,如下表所示。更不用说庞大的美联储的资产负债表了!美联储的鸽派倾向现在是很明显了,实际上,这对黄金来说并不太坏。
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