MBG Markets：约翰逊入主唐宁街十号，强势美指杀跌非美货币

　　
疲软数据难敌市场情绪，美指收出三连阳(DXY)
　　
Technical aspect:美元指数上一交易日震幅达48Individual points, closing up0.4%，日线收出三连阳。日线BOLL(20)布林中轨趋于上行，汇价贴近布林上轨；日线MA5,10,20Construct multi period golden fork resonance,MA5,10双线趋于上行，汇价运行于MA5上方；日线MACD(12,26,9)阳柱势能较前一交易日增大，DIFF、DEA双线走高至0轴上方；日线RSI(14)to61-62一线运行，运行斜率较小趋于走平。上方阻力关注前期高点97.75，下方支撑关注布林中轨97.15Gains and losses.
　　
Fundamentals:U.S.A7Monthly Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index Record-12，远逊于市场预期5, Previous value3Downward revision to2；分项数据中，7月里奇蒙德联储工厂指数下跌至2013year1月以来新低，制造业前景又添阴霾。美国6月成屋销售总数年化报527万户，逊于预期及前值；成屋销售同比下滑2.2%, for consecutive16个月同比下跌，表明美国楼市在去年疲软期之后仍在苦苦挣扎。今日数据面建议关注美国7monthPMI读数，近几月美国产业扩张速度放缓明显，若manufacturingPMI数据跌破50荣枯线，将加大美联储降息的压力。
　　
鸽派政策预期发酵，欧元跌破前低(EUR/USD)
　　
Technical aspect:The previous trading day saw a significant fluctuation in the euro against the US dollar62Points, closing down0.48%, falling below6month18日低点。日线BOLL(20)布林中轨趋于下行，汇价跌至布林下轨下方极端超卖位置运行；日线MA5,10,20Construct multi period dead fork resonance,MA5,10Double track trend downward, exchange rate under pressureMA5Below; Daily lineMACD(12,26,9)阴柱势能较前一交易日增大；日线RSI(14)to33-34Running on the front line, with a small slope and tending to flatten out. Attention to resistance above1.1180的前低位置，下方支撑关注1.1115frontline.
　　
Fundamentals:当前仓位数据来看，杠杆化基金在近两周平掉部分欧元空仓（尽管幅度不大），资管经理继续清掉欧元多仓，整体而言欧元被交易员看衰的程度仅次于英镑。仓位因素和悲观情绪都暗示，如果欧央行本周未能符合市场预期放鸽，欧元可能大涨。摩根士丹利发布预估性报告称，如果欧央行在7月直接宣布降息，或宣布11月前启动QE，将被市场视作鸽派信号，欧元短线将现大跌。如果政策声明并无太多变化，仅仅对前瞻性指引进行调整，欧元可能不跌反涨，涨幅或接近1%。
　　
约翰逊入主唐宁街十号，内阁再掀辞职浪潮(GBP/USD)
　　
Technical aspect:英镑兑美元上一交易日震幅达64Points, closing down0.28%。 Daily lineBOLL(20)趋于收口，布林中轨趋于下行，汇价贴近布林下轨走低；日线MA5,10,20Construct multi period dead fork resonance,MA5,10Double track trend downward, exchange rate under pressureMA5Below; Daily lineMACD(12,26,9)阴阳柱势能不显，但DIFF、DEA双线持续承压0轴下方；日线RSI(14)to38一线运行。技术指标仍构成空头格局，未见明显筑底信号。上方关注布林中轨位置得失，下方关注前低1.2380Location.
　　
Fundamentals:鲍里斯约翰逊以绝对优势成功当选英国保守党新党魁、英国新首相。结果公布后，约翰逊重新强调了竞选承诺，将实现“脱欧”、团结全国、击败工党党魁杰里米·科尔宾。英国内阁再掀辞职浪潮，副外交大臣邓肯、教育大臣弥尔顿两人已提交辞呈。财政大臣哈蒙德和司法大臣高克已明确表示将要辞职。甚至有传闻英国央行行长人选有更替可能。主流观点认为，辞职潮将加大“无协议脱欧”的可能，因其为约翰逊组建“强硬脱欧”派内阁提供了便利。仓位数据来看，英镑仍被大量沽空，情绪指标进一步恶化，但暂未到极端水平。这也意味着一旦有积极消息传来，英镑有望迎来空头回补。
　　
　　
　　
Risk Statement and Important Notes
transactionforeign exchangeMargin and contract for difference trading involve high risks and may not be suitable for all investors. You may encounter losses exceeding the principal amount during trading.
The above content is general information and does not take into account your investment objectives, financial condition, or other needs; It does not constitute any invitation to invest or buy or sell financial products. Before you make an investment decision,MBG MarketsWe suggest that you seek independent financial advice. Meanwhile,MBG MarketsWe shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses arising from the use of this review/Liability or obligation resulting from or damage.
You are making a decision to selectMBG MarketsPlease read carefully before providing the financial productsMBG MarketsAnd confirm full understanding of the transaction in accordance with the terms and conditions and product disclosure statementMBG MarketsRisks related to financial products.