MBG Markets：零售数据爆雷加元骤跌，布拉德意外发言推涨美指

　　
布拉德站队25bp降息，美元重返97Above the checkpoint(DXY)
　　
Technical aspect:美元指数上一交易日震幅达56Individual points, closing up0.37%，重返97关口上方。日线BOLL(20)三轨上行区域构筑多方通道线；日线MA5,10双线趋黏合走高，汇价运行于MA5上方；日线MACD(12,26,9)阳柱势能较小，势能较前一交易日稍有增大，DIFF、DEABilinear to0轴上方以小斜率走高；日线RSI(14)to54一线运行。上方阻力关注前期高点97.75，下方支撑关注回撤新低96.80。
　　
Fundamentals:美联储两大鸽派之一的布拉德讲话称，并不认为需要提前结束美联储的缩表；倾向于在接下来的议息会议中降息25个基点；并不认为美联储进入了“降息周期”。由于布拉德以传统鸽派委员身份，强调了美联储降息的预防性而非周期性，市场对美联储7Monthly interest rate reduction50bp的预期迅速消解。美联储传统鹰派罗森格伦称，美国经济表现相当不错，并未出现经济放缓的情况；近期的通胀数据显示今年早些时候的疲弱可能只是暂时现象。
　 　
市场看空情绪升温，日元面临考验(USD/JPY)
　　
Technical aspect:The USD/JPY experienced a significant fluctuation in the previous trading day65Individual points, closing up0.31%。 Daily lineBOLL(20)三轨趋于走平，似暂缺乏形成单边趋势的市场强度及潜在波动率；日线MA5,10,20构多周期死叉共振；日线MACD(12,26,9)阴柱势能较小，DIFF、DEABilinear to0轴下方运行；日线RSI(14)to47-48一线运行，运行斜率较大趋于走高。上方阻力关注布林中轨位置约为108.10一线，下方关注前期反弹阴阳柱转换区域107.30frontline.
　　
Fundamentals:Japan6Monthly nationwideCPI环比录得0增长，同比增速报0.7%，均维持前值水平；6Monthly National CoreCPIYear-on-year growth0.6%Compared to previous values0.8%水平有所降温。尽管市场对日本低通胀已司空见惯，6月通胀读数仍称得上“令人失望”。日本央行行长黑田东彦周六讲话称：必须寻求在没有政治压力的情况下维持物价稳定；日本经济当前已经不再存在通缩。据CFTCstay7month19日发布的最新报告显示，截止至7month10Solstice7month16日当周，日元投机性净空头增加7729Hand contract, to11380手合约；表明市场对日元看空情绪急剧升温。
　　
零售数据爆雷，强势加元遇威胁(USD/CAD)
　　
Technical aspect:美元兑加元上一交易日震幅达84Individual points, closing up0.17%。 Daily lineBOLL(20)布林中轨趋于下行，汇价持续承压于中轨下方；布林三轨收口明显，表明单边趋势暂时有所缓解。日线MA5,10双线趋黏合，MA5Tending towards a downward trend; Daily lineMACD(12,26,9)阳柱势能较前一交易日增大，DIFF、DEA双线自0轴下方极端低位不断抬升；日线RSI(14)to40-41一线运行，长期承压50荣枯线下方。指标层面仍未空头占优。日内建议先行观察布林中轨得失。上方阻力关注双顶平台位置1.3145，下方支撑关注前低1.3020。
　　
Fundamentals:Canada5月零售销售环比缩减0.1%，核心零售销售环比缩减0.3%，数据读数显著逊于市场预期及前值，食品与饮料销售的大幅下滑拖累了整体数据表现。零售数据发布后，美元兑加元急速拉升，创出一周新高。加拿大皇家银行：5月零售数据的走软属于异常情况，这一趋势可能会在未来得到扭转。据CFTCstay7month19日发布的最新报告显示，截止至7month10Solstice7month16日当周，加元投机性净多头增加11738Hand contract, to20964Hand contract.
　　
　　
　　
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