MBG Markets：通胀回暖提振欧元信心，硬脱欧风险威胁英镑前景

　　
降息力度预期仍存争议，美元隔夜回落(DXY)
　　
Technical aspect:美元指数上一交易日震幅达30Points, closing down0.17%。 Daily lineBOLL(20)The Bolin track tends to rise, and the exchange rate continues to operate above the track; Daily lineMA5,10构死叉，MA5稍趋走平；日线MACD(12,26,9)The potential energy of the positive column is relatively small, and the potential energy is reduced compared to the previous trading day; Daily lineRSI(14)to52-53一线运行，运行斜率较大趋于下行。美元交易者多空博弈激烈，在利率前景明确前料较难有单边趋势突破。上方阻力关注前高97.75，下方支撑关注布林中轨96.87。
　　
Fundamentals:美联储公布经济状况褐皮书称，经济近几周继续以“温和”的步伐增长，消费者支出保持强劲，整体前景“基本乐观”，通胀保持稳定但略有下降，物价动能整体疲软。褐皮书公布后，美元指数DXY下行，接近日低。市场当前基本充分计价了美联储在7Raising interest rates at monthly meetings25个基点的状况，但对于会否加息50个基点仍存一定争议。截至今日亚盘前，据CMEFederal Reserve Observation: The Federal Reserve7Monthly interest rate reduction25Bps to2.00%-2.25%的概率为61.0%（前一交易日为66.2%），降息50The probability of a basis point is39.0%（前一交易日为33.8%）。
　　
通胀前景存下行风险，强势加元暗藏威胁(USD/CAD)
　　
Technical aspect:美元兑加元上一交易日震幅达58Points, closing down0.24%。 Daily lineBOLL(20)趋于收口，反映汇价可能来到趋势反转节点；日线MA5,10,20Construct multi period dead fork resonance,MA5,10双线稍趋走平；日线MACD(12,26,9)阳柱势能虽无明显增减，但DIFF、DEA双线走高；日线RSI(14)to37-38一线运行，运行斜率较小趋于走平。日内建议关注布林中轨得失，短期止跌可以上破布林中轨为信号。下方支撑关注前低1.3020。
　　
Fundamentals:Canada6monthCPI环比缩减0.2%, year-on-year growth2%，自前值读数显著降温。分项数据来看，通胀下滑主要受能源价格，尤其是汽油价格下跌的拖累。汽油价格季节性波动引发的油价基数效应料将在夏季以后，给加拿大cpi带来更为严峻考验，通胀存在客观下行风险。惠誉：贸易政策进展为加拿大出口与北美供应链带来国际需求方面的风险；贸易紧张已经损伤了加拿大的制造业与货物贸易，若出现进一步恶化，将会不利于加拿大经济增长前景。
　　
无协议脱欧风险酝酿，谨慎黑天鹅振翅(GBP/USD)
　　
Technical aspect:英镑兑美元上一交易日震幅达74Individual points, closing up0.2%。在连续大跌后稍获喘息。日线BOLL(20)布林中轨趋于下行，汇价持续承压于中轨下方；日线MA5,10,20构多周期死叉共振，汇价承压于MA5Below; Daily lineMACD(12,26,9)DIFF、DEA双线重归下行；日线RSI(14)to35-36一线运行，接近超卖区间上沿位置。当前英镑反弹力度明显偏弱，并未构明确的筑底信号。上方阻力关注1.2580位置，下方支撑关注2017year4月时的二次起涨点1.2360Location.
　　
Fundamentals:随着争夺首相之位的两位竞选者都在脱欧问题上放狠话，英镑兑美元周三短暂跌破1.24美元，创两年新低。英国首相候选人约翰逊称：整个英国脱欧协议已经“死了”；北爱尔兰担保协议不会起作用；首要任务是在10month31日前脱欧。另一位候选人亨特同样被反复要求证明，将在10month31日带领英国退出欧盟。摩根士丹利称，无协议脱欧的风险正在升高，一旦无协议脱欧，英镑会在市场最坏情形下跌至历史低点；英镑兑美元可能跌至1.00USD to1.10USD.
　　
　　
　　
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