MBG Markets：零售数据回暖推升美指，十月脱欧承诺击溃英镑

　　
零售数据回升，美元强势上行(DXY)
　　
Technical aspect:美元指数上一交易日震幅达54Individual points, closing up0.44%。 Daily lineBOLL(20)布林中轨趋于走平，汇价贴近布林上轨；日线MA5,10双线趋黏合，MA5,10双线趋于上行，汇价运行于MA5上方；日线MACD(12,26,9)阳柱势能无明显增减；日线RSI(14)to57-58一线运行，运行斜率较小趋于走平。
上方阻力关注前高97.75，下方支撑关注布林中轨96.85。
　　
Fundamentals:U.S.A6Monthly retail sales rate recorded0.4%，显著优于预期0.1%，前值由0.5%Downward revision to0.4%；6月核心零售销售月率录得0.4%，显著优于预期0.1%。机构评论称，6月份核心零售销售在4-5月的亮眼表现后继续强劲增长，表明第二季度消费者支出大幅增长；零售销售数据可能对美联储本月进行十年来首次降息的市场预期影响不大，只是进一步排除了7Interest rate reduction at monthly meetings50个基点的可能。美联储埃文斯：预计降息50个基点能够推升通胀；仅仅基于通胀，认为2019年美联储将加息数次。
　　
悲观情绪蔓延，欧元重返跌势(EUR/USD)
　　
Technical aspect:The previous trading day saw a significant fluctuation in the euro against the US dollar62Points, closing down0.43%。 Daily lineBOLL(20)布林三轨趋近构筑下行通道线，汇价持续承压于中轨下方；日线MA5趋于下行，汇价跌回MA5Below; Daily lineMACD(12,26,9)DIFF、DEA双线下行，阴柱势能较前一交易日增大；日线RSI(14)to40-41一线运行。构筑6month25日起的本轮下跌的斐波那契回调线，汇价连续三个交易日盘整于38.2%回调位下方后，现大阴回落。上方关键阻力为38.2%Callback bit1.1276，下方关注前低1.1192。
　　
Fundamentals:Germany7monthZEWEconomic prosperity index recorded-24.5，逊于前值-21.1And expectations-22.3； eurozone7monthZEWEconomic prosperity index recorded-20.3，逊于前值读数；反映当前机构分析师及投资者对欧元区中期(6Months)经济活动及资本市场前景展望再度恶化。今日数据面建议关注欧元区6monthCPI数据，近期欧央行的货币政策声明中强调了对疲软通胀的关注，若通胀数据进一步疲软，将加大欧央行进行货币政策调整的压力。标普在研究报告中指出，欧洲央行目前除了进一步放松货币政策以外几乎没有其他选择。预计2019年中期欧洲央行将会调整前瞻指引，从而为降息铺路。
　　
约翰逊强调十月脱欧承诺，英镑隔夜跌势惨烈(GBP/USD)
　　
Technical aspect:英镑兑美元上一交易日震幅达123Points, closing down0.85%。 Daily lineBOLL(20)The Bolin middle track tends to decline, and the exchange rate is close to the Bolin lower track; Daily lineMA5,10双线黏合下行；日线MACD(12,26,9)DIFFOffline threadingDEA构死叉，阳柱仅维持两日，再度翻阴；日线RSI(14)骤跌至31-32位置，贴近超卖区间上沿。1.2400关口为整数位心理关口，且为今年1月由算法交易错误触及的极端低点。截至今日午盘前，汇价距1.2400仅一线之隔。日内建议关注1.2400得失，若跌破1.2400，下方支撑为2017year4月时的二次起涨点1.2360Location.
　　
Fundamentals:UK as of5Three months in a monthILO失业率仍处于1975年初以来的最低水平。英国5月三个月剔除红利的平均工资年率录得逾十年来的最大增幅。有评论认为，如果英国可以避免无协议脱欧，基于薪资数据的走强，英国央行可能需要采取加息行动作为回应。据天空新闻：若英国前外交大臣约翰逊赢得英国首相职位，他将会在10月让所有议员放假，并阻止他们妨碍可能出现的无协议脱欧情景。此前，约翰逊已不止一次强调他将让英国在10月脱欧截至日期之前成功脱欧。西太平洋银行：英国央行行长卡尼明显转向鸽派，且英国首相候选人约翰逊当选的可能性上升，加剧了英镑的悲观情绪。
　　
　　
　　
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