MBG Markets：美联储官员密集发声，欧央行纪要强调宽松

　　
美联储官员密集发声，降息25bp仍为主流预期(DXY)
　　
Technical aspect:美元指数上一交易日震幅达36Individual points, closing up0.02%。 Daily lineBOLL(20)布林中轨趋于走平，汇价隔夜回测中轨后企稳回升；日线MA5,10,20Construct multi period golden fork resonance,MA5趋于下行，汇价连续两日收于MA5下方，可视作短期滞涨信号；日线MACD(12,26,9)阳柱势能较前一交易日缩减；日线RSI(14)回测50荣枯线。构筑自4month25日起的本轮下跌的斐波那契回调线，38.2%Callback bit96.88当前同布林中轨高度重合。上方阻力关注前高97.70Below support attention96.88。
　　
Fundamentals:得益于商品和服务行业成本稳定增长，美国6Monthly CoreCPIMonth on month growth0.3%，创一年半以来最大涨幅，同比增速2.1%亦好于市场预期。美国至7month6Record of initial claims for unemployment benefits for the current week20.9Ten thousand people, down to3个月低位，反映劳动力市场状况走强。昨日美联储多位官员发声，部分观点有所碰撞——卡什卡利：降息25个基点不足以缓解冲击，需要降息50个基点。巴尔金：大幅度的利率行动将带来通胀升至4%的风险。据CMEFederal Reserve Observation: The Federal Reserve7Monthly interest rate reduction25The probability of a basis point is81.7%Interest rate reduction50The probability of a basis point is18.3%；7Monthly interest rate reduction25个基点的押注仍是市场主流。
　　
欧央行纪要强调宽松，欧元震荡微跌(EUR/USD)
　　
Technical aspect:The previous trading day saw a significant fluctuation in the euro against the US dollar41Points, closing down0.08%。 Daily lineBOLL(20)布林中轨趋于上行，汇价持续承压于中轨下方；日线MA5,10,20构多周期死叉共振，汇价连续两个交易日收于MA5上方，可视作短期止跌信号；日线MACD(12,26,9)The potential energy of the Yin column has decreased compared to the previous trading day; Daily lineRSI(14)to47-48一线运行，有望测试50荣枯线。构筑自6month25日起的本轮下跌的斐波那契回调线。上方阻力关注38.2%Callback bit1.1276，下方支撑关注前低1.1244。
　　
Fundamentals:欧央行昨日发布6月会议纪要：同意需要为政策宽松做好准备，可能采取的措施包括延长和加强前瞻性指引，恢复资产购买计划和降低利率。北欧联合银行认为，在当前宏观经济存在大量不确定性，通胀远低于目标的情况下，欧洲央行料将在9月份推出新一轮刺激措施。今日数据面建议关注欧元区5月工业产出。欧元区工业产出同比增速已连续6个月下滑；环比增速来看，二季度欧元区工业产出状况相较一季度更加恶化。5月读数若走软，或对欧元构成短线压力
　　
风险偏好升温，日元稍有承压(USD/JPY)
　　
Technical aspect:The USD/JPY experienced a significant fluctuation in the previous trading day75Individual points, closing up0.24%。 Daily lineBOLL(20)布林中轨趋于走平，汇价持续于中轨上方运行；日线MA5,10,20Construct multi period golden fork resonance,MA5,10双线稍趋走平；日线MACD(12,26,9)阳柱势能持续缩减；日线RSI(14)to50荣枯线附近运行。美元兑日元在构成对下行趋势线的有效破位后，形态层面多头占优，但较窄的布林信赖区间显然限制了行情走势。上方阻力关注前高109.00，下方支撑关注布林中轨108.00Location.
　　
Fundamentals:据市场消息，韩国与日本将在7month12日举行贸易磋商。此前日本宣布对出口韩国的半导体材料进行严格审查，还将取消对于韩国的安全保障上的友好国家认定。外媒称中美将进行新一轮贸易谈判，但当前暂无具体安排的细节。市场风险情绪大幅好转，道指历史首次涨破27000关口，恐慌指数VIX走低，传统避险资产下跌，日元、瑞郎等避险货币亦承压下行。
　　
　　
　　
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