MBG Markets：欧美央行鹰鸽声交织，多重利空施压英镑

　　
联储官员再放鹰声，美指延续日线连阳(DXY)
　　
Technical aspect:美元指数上一交易日震幅达25Individual points, closing up0.13%。 Daily lineBOLL(20)The Bolin track tends to rise, and the exchange rate continues to operate above the track; Daily lineMA5,10构金叉，MA5,10双线趋于上行，汇价运行于MA5上方；日线MACD(12,26,9)阳柱势能持续增大；日线RSI(14)to59-60一线运行，距超买区间下沿仍有一定空间。上方阻力97.75, lower support97.35。
　　
Fundamentals:美国费城联储主席哈克称，尽管近期下行风险有所增加，但当前并未看见经济走弱的情况，并不认为需要降息。据CME“美联储观察”，市场仍预计美联储在7Monthly interest rate increase at least25bp的概率为100%。晚间，美联储官员密集讲话。鲍威尔将在众议院金融委员会就半年度货币政策报告作证词陈述；货币政策立场偏鸽派的博斯蒂克，偏鹰派的梅斯特将发表讲话。
　　
欧央行鸽声不断，欧元低位承压(EUR/USD)
　　
Technical aspect:The previous trading day saw a significant fluctuation in the euro against the US dollar25Points, closing down0.1%。 Daily lineBOLL(20)布林中轨趋于走平；日线MA5,10,20Construct multi period dead fork resonance,MA5,10双线趋于下行，汇价持续承压于MA5Below; Daily lineMACD(12,26,9)阴柱势能较大；日线RSI(14)to37-38一线运行。鉴于汇价技术形态近似变形后的上升Gartley图形，建议以5month30日低点、6month25日高点构筑斐波那契回调线，下方潜在反转点（即支撑位）建议观察78.6%Callback bit1.1180and88.6%Callback bit1.1150。
　　
Fundamentals:欧洲央行首席经济学家连恩称：欧洲央行准备好采取行动，仍需要大量宽松；欧洲央行执委科尔：如果情况允许，可以恢复净资产购买。野村证券：预计欧洲央行将于9月降息，并重启量化宽松。摩根士丹利：目前，欧元区经济增长低于平均水平，通胀也不及目标，这可能意味着欧洲央行会重启资产购买计划；预计欧央行在9月份宣布，自第四季度起以约450100 million euros/月的速度购债。
　　
英镑跌势惨烈，日内关注GDPdata(GBP/USD)
　　
Technical aspect:英镑兑美元上一交易日震幅达79Points, closing down0.46%。 Daily lineBOLL(20)趋于开口，布林中轨趋于下行，汇价持续贴近布林下轨；日线MA5,10,20Construct multi period dead fork resonance,MA5,10Double track trend downward, exchange rate under pressureMA5下方未见明显反弹；日线MACD(12,26,9)阴柱势能较大，势能无明显增减；日线RSI(14)to27-28一线运行，已跌至超卖区间。上方关注5日均线得失，下方潜在支撑为斐波那契拓展线61.8%position1.2370。
　　
Fundamentals:近几周，政治风险的上升、经济数据的黯淡令英镑持续下行。在英国下任首相竞选接近尾声之际，处于领先地位的约翰逊尽管多次声明并不追求无协议脱欧，但市场认为他仍留有无协议脱欧的可能。今日建议关注英国5monthGDP数据，英国4monthGDP环比萎缩0.4%, for2016year3月以来的最大月度跌幅，二季度经济恐面临急剧恶化的风险。若关键的5monthGDP数据再度走软，将加大英国加入央行宽松潮的概率。
　　
　　
　　
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