MBG Markets：非农数据缓解降息预期，非美货币全线下行

　　
非农报告意外强劲，降息预期显著缓解(DXY)
　　
Technical aspect:美元指数上一交易日震幅达74Individual points, closing up0.51%。 Daily lineBOLL(20)The Bolin track tends to rise, and the exchange rate continues to operate above the track; Daily lineMA5,10构金叉，MA5,10双线趋于上行，汇价运行于MA5上方；日线MACD(12,26,9)阳柱势能较前一交易日增大；日线RSI(14)to55-56一线运行，运行斜率较小趋于走平。汇价反弹幅度已超过5month23日所开启下跌浪的61.8%，多空力量有翻转趋势。上方阻力97.75, lower support97.00。
　　
Fundamentals:U.S.A6月季调后新增非农就业人口22.4万人，远高于前值和预期，除零售业、采掘业仍录得负增长外，几乎所有行业都出现反弹；美国6月就业参与率与失业率同步上行，表明有更多人进入劳动力市场寻找工作；唯一负面拖累为薪资增速疲软，这是近几月非农报告的通病。6月平均每小时工资月率、年率均不及市场预期。非农发布后，10年期美国国债收益率快速反弹，重回2%之上，美元指数迅速走高逾40Points.
　　
鸽派预期强烈，欧元弱势难返(EUR/USD)
　　
Technical aspect:The previous trading day saw a significant fluctuation in the euro against the US dollar79Points, closing down0.53%。在关键的布林中轨争夺中，多头遭空方压制，连续三日震荡后汇价续跌。本轮下跌汇价持续承压于日线MA5下方，可以连续两个交易日收盘于MA5上方为短期企稳信号。日线MACD(12,26,9)阴柱势能持续增大，表明跌势加速。日线RSI(14)to50荣枯线下方运行，距超卖区间上沿仍有一定距离，表明汇价仍有潜在下行空间。上方阻力关注50%Callback position1.1260，下方潜在支撑观察76.4%（61.8%Add38.2%and23.6%的差值）回调位1.1185Location.
　　
Fundamentals:摩根大通：预计德国经济在第二季度萎缩。如果出现这种情况，这将是欧洲最大经济体在一年内第三次没有录得增长。德商银行：欧洲央行或在7月会议上将存款利率下调20个基点（此前为下调10个基点），继续保留市场对进一步降息的猜测，且不会否认恢复资产购买的可能性。此外，欧洲央行可能引进分层利率体系，以此来缓和减低存款利率的负面影响。欧洲央行管委维勒鲁瓦周六驳斥了特朗普有关操纵欧元的指控，强调对欧元区的目标是中期通胀率接近2%（当前通胀水平为1.2%）。
　　
就业市场增长趋缓，美加低位震荡(USD/CAD)
　　
Technical aspect:美元兑加元上一交易日震幅达88Individual points, closing up0.19%。 Daily lineBOLL(20)趋于收口，布林中轨趋于下行，汇价持续承压于中轨下方；日线MA5,10,20Construct multi period dead fork resonance,MA10为较清晰的多空分水岭指标；日线MACD(12,26,9)DIFFOnline threadingDEA构金叉，阴柱翻阳；日线RSI(14)to33-34一线运行，运行斜率较小趋于走平，持续贴近超卖区间上沿。上方关注10日均线得失，下方支撑1.3000Integer level.
　　
Fundamentals:Canada6月就业人数缩减0.22万人，不及市场预期，且大幅逊于前值；就业参与率、失业率等关键数据维持前值水平；就业市场增长放缓趋势有所显现。7month1-4日期间受访的近40名经济分析师称，受近来国内乐观的经济活动支撑，加拿大央行至少在今年底之前都将维持指标利率在1.75%不变。但随着增长受到打击，这种倾向料将在明年发生转变。加拿大央行今明两年放松政策的可能性已上升。
　　
　　
　　
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