MBG Markets：经济前景抑制欧元走势，风险情绪助力商品货币

　　
戴利强调数据走软，美元指数延续偏强震荡(DXY)
　　
Technical aspect:美元指数上一交易日震幅达26Individual points, closing up0.04%，日线三连阳但涨幅均较小。日线BOLL(20)趋于收口，布林中轨趋于下行，汇价此前触及下轨位置后，持续回升；日线MA5,10,20Construct multi period dead fork resonance,MA5稍趋走平，汇价运行至MA5上方；日线MACD(12,26,9)The potential energy of the Yin column has decreased compared to the previous trading day; Daily lineRSI(14)to37-38一线运行，运行斜率较小趋于走平。美元指数处低位弱反弹阶段，多头势能稍显匮乏，需慎待其下跌可能。上方阻力96.50, lower support95.85。
　　
Fundamentals:US Q1 ActualGDP年化季率终值持平初值，为3.1%；分项当中，消费者支出增幅有所下调。但出口和库存提振掩盖了国内需求疲弱的事实。市场对美国二季度经济展望仍较为悲观。今日凌晨时段，美联储旧金山联储主席戴利发表讲话，强调美联储将继续关注经济数据传递出来的信号。同时提到通胀数据和就业报告有所走软，不确定性正抑制经济增速。发言基调较前一交易日更偏鸽派。
　　
经济景气指数萎靡，欧元盘整微跌(EUR/USD)
　　
Technical aspect:The previous trading day saw a significant fluctuation in the euro against the US dollar34Points, closing down0.02%。 Daily lineBOLL(20)The Bolin track tends to rise, and the exchange rate continues to operate above the track; Daily lineMA5,10,20构多周期金叉共振；日线MACD(12,26,9)阳柱势能持续缩减；日线RSI(14)to61-62一线运行，运行斜率较小趋于走平。截至今日亚盘EURUSD的回调仍未构成对23.6%斐波那契回调线的破位，属极弱回调，并未出现多空力量反转迹象。上方阻力1.1410, lower support1.1355。
　　
Fundamentals:Germany6monthCPI月率初值录得0.3%，6monthCPIAnnual rate recorded1.6%，双双优于前值及预期。欧元区6The monthly economic prosperity index fell to103.3, for2016year8月来最低水平；工业景气指数持续为负值；服务业景气指数持续走低。前景展望悲观。最大经济体德国和第三大经济体意大利的信心降幅最大。分析认为，海内外高端汽车市场的饱和、全球贸易环境的恶化持续威胁德国经济。而债务危机阴影令意大利前景蒙尘。
　　
避险情绪缓和推升加元，聚焦日内利率决议(USD/CAD)
　　
Technical aspect:美元兑加元上一交易日震幅达46Points, closing down0.22%。 Daily lineBOLL(20)趋于开口，布林中轨趋于下行，汇价贴近布林下轨；日线MA5,10,20Construct multi period dead fork resonance,MA5,10双线趋于下行，汇价持续承压于MA5Below; Daily lineMACD(12,26,9)The potential energy of the Yin column is relatively large, and the potential energy is reduced compared to the previous trading day; Daily lineRSI(14)to27-28一线运行，运行斜率较小趋于走平。在基本面因素主导下USDCAD跌势迅猛，技术面传递的超卖信号基本遭无视。上方阻力关注MA5位置，下方支撑1.3060。
　　
Fundamentals:G20峰会前陆续传出的中美领导人或于G20期间谈判、美俄谈判削减战略武器等消息，极大缓解了市场紧张情绪。受此影响，澳元、加元、纽元三大商品货币全线走高。当前美国和加拿大的货币政策分歧存在较大分歧，市场普遍预计美联储年内降息1-2次，同时预计加拿大央行年内按兵不动，这是近期USDCAD下跌的主因。今日数据面建议关注加拿大4monthGDP数据，鉴于加拿大3月设备和机械的商业投资增长8.7%Create23年来最大的增长，表明经济存在较大潜在增长动能，市场对4monthGDP读数抱有高度期望。
　　
　　
　　
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