MBG Markets：布拉德讲话修正降息预期，美元逆袭收阳加元坚挺

　　
布拉德讲话修正降息预期，美元终结四日连阴(DXY)
　　
Technical aspect:美元指数上一交易日震幅达51Individual points, closing up0.18%。 Daily lineBOLL(20)布林中轨趋于下行，汇价自布林下轨下方回升至三轨信赖区间；日线MA5,10,20构多周期死叉共振，今日亚盘DXYyesMA5构成上测，日内建议关注MA5得失；日线MACD(12,26,9)阴柱势能无明显增减；日线RSI(14)to37-38一线运行，运行斜率较大趋于走高。上方阻力96.50, lower support95.85。
　　
Fundamentals:U.S.A6The Consumer Confidence Index of the Monthly Consultation Chamber recorded121.5, falling to2017year9月以来最低水平；美国5月新屋销售意外录得62.6万户，连续第二个月下滑。美国经济疲势继续。美联储主席鲍威尔及圣路易斯联储主席布拉德的最新讲话，依然为7月降息做铺垫，表明美联储正处在宽松政策的边缘。但布拉德补充称，如果美联储确在7月降息，不觉得有必要同时结束缩表；7Monthly interest rate reduction50个基点可能太过了。考虑到布拉德为美联储决策层内的传统鸽派官员，这一表态极大打击了市场对美联储7Monthly interest rate reduction50点的预期，助力美指盘中迅速走高。
　　
CBI零售销售差值爆雷，英镑未破关键阻力(GBP/USD)
　　
Technical aspect:英镑兑美元上一交易日震幅达112Points, closing down0.38%。 Daily lineBOLL(20)布林中轨稍趋上行，汇价隔夜回踩中轨企稳，布林中轨仍有较显著的多空分水作用；日线MA5,10构金叉，但MA5Tending towards a downward trend; Daily lineMACD(12,26,9)阳柱势能较大，势能较前一交易日缩减；日线RSI(14)fall drastically50多空分水岭，于47-48一线运行。GBPUSD尽管未有效破位前期1.2765双顶平台位置，但只需汇价守于1.2500上方，仍保留构筑低位头肩底看涨形态的可能。上方阻力1.2765, lower support1.2500。
　　
Fundamentals:britain6monthCBI零售销售差值录得-42，显著逊于预期值-10及前值-27, creating2009year3月以来最低水平；create2016year8月以来最低。有评论称，脱欧不确定性对英国经济的影响比市场预期的还要严重，英国央行将不得不延迟加息计划。巴克莱银行对英镑展望悲观：英国脱欧和选举风险继续在历史低位施压英镑，而来自欧洲的风险进一步拉低英镑兑世界其它地区货币，预计英镑兑美元在2020年第二季度跌至1.20。
　　
强劲数据提供信心，加元多头坚挺(USD/CAD)
　　
Technical aspect:美元兑加元上一交易日震幅达56Points, closing down0.05%。 Daily lineBOLL(20)趋于收口，布林三轨下行构筑下行通道线，汇价持续贴近下轨附近运行；日线MA5,10,20Construct multi period dead fork resonance,MA5稍趋走平，汇价承压于MA5Below; Daily lineMACD(12,26,9)The potential energy of the Yin column has decreased compared to the previous trading day; Daily lineRSI(14)to30-35区间运行较长时间，长期贴近超卖区间上沿。USDCADsince6month21日开启的低位反弹始终未突破此前下跌浪23.6%弱反弹阻力位，加元多头较为坚挺。上方阻力1.3215, lower support1.3150。
　　
Fundamentals:受益于汽车及汽车零部件销售强劲,Canada4月批发销售月率录得1.7%, higher than expected0.2%及前值1.4%。评论认为，此项数据显示该国制造业强劲发展，加拿大央行无需效仿其它央行降息。上周，荷兰国际集团曾发布报告称，

以加拿大央行(Bank of Canada)三项关键指标的平均水平衡量的核心通胀率，达到2012The highest level since the beginning of the year

，

加上今年晚些时候国内增长前景好转，这表明加拿大央行目前不太可能采取宽松政策

。

　　
　　
　　
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