Industrial Investment: Supply Concerns Continue to ferment American Oil Four Links Yang

Industrial Investment: Supply Concerns Continue to ferment American Oil Four Links Yang
2019year6month24day
International oil prices continued to fluctuate and rise last Friday, as Iran shot down a US drone and Trump announced more sanctions against Iran, escalating tensions in the Middle East and triggering tensions in the regioncrude oilConcerns about interruptions in transportation routes. However, the uncertainty of the China US trade dispute will continue to suppress the outlook for crude oil demand, putting downward pressure on oil prices. As of closing, United StatesWTIcrude oil8monthfuturesIncome increase0.24USD, or0.42%Report57.64dollar/Bucket, highest reach57.96dollar/Bucket, lowest drop to56.64dollar/bucket;Brent crude oil8Monthly futures up0.65USD, or1.01%Report65.32dollar/Bucket, highest touch in tray65.74element/Bucket, lowest drop to63.97dollar/Bucket.
After Iran shot down a US drone and Trump's intention to launch a military strike against Iran was abruptly terminated at the last minute, people speculated about what kind of retaliation the US would make. Suddenly, Trump announced that he would once again use his effective "trump card" - economic sanctions.
According to Bloomberg, Trump will impose new sanctions on Iran on Monday and tweeted that the nuclear agreement reached between the US and Iran during Obama's presidency is "terrible", emphasizing that Iran must not have nuclear weapons. US Secretary of State Pompeo said that a "series of significant new sanctions measures" against Iran will be introduced on Monday, and he is preparing to visit Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to convene a "global anti Iran alliance". approximately80%The Iranian economy has already been sanctioned, and new sanctions will ensure that Iran's economic development becomes increasingly difficult. Regarding the threat from the United States, Iran angrily accuses it of playing a "word game", stating that Trump's new sanctions will not help ease the current tension.
In addition, Saudi Energy Minister Al Falih's latest speech indicates thatOPECThe alliance's plan to extend the crude oil production reduction agreement, as well as the recent weekly crude oil inventory report from the United States, have had a positive impact on oil prices. However, investors do not attach much importance to the message conveyed by the increase in the number of Baker Hughes US oil drilling platforms, which does not hinder the stability of oil prices.
According to the latest data from American oil service company Baker Hughes, as of6month21During the current week, the number of active oil wells in the United States increased1Seat to789Seat, first growth recorded in three weeks;The total number of active oil and gas drilling in the United States has decreased2Seat to967seat;Reduction in active drilling of natural gas3Seat to177Seat.
Last Friday, the US Department of Commerce, citing national security concerns, announced that companies such as Zhongke Shuguang and Jiangnan Institute of Computing Technology would5Chinese entities are included in the export control "entity list" and are prohibited from purchasing components from US suppliers. Related decisions are made6month24Effective on [date]. This is another unilateral sanction action taken by the United States against Chinese companies, following the inclusion of Huawei in the "Entity List". It can be seen that the competition between China and the United States is becoming increasingly evident in the field of supercomputers, which promotes industrial development and gives birth to a series of high-end technologies. The purpose of this move is to cut off the supply chain of Chinese enterprises, thereby weakening China's technological and economic development strength. One week later, the heads of state of China and the United States will meet again during the G20 Summit in Osaka. The US side's actions at this time have the intention of further pressuring China and obtaining more bargaining chips in economic and trade negotiations.
In an editorial on Saturday, People's Daily said that the United States should not engage in a trade war with China, but should abandon the mentality of winning at all costs and consider the interests of its own people and the international community. The editorial urges the United States to lift all tariffs on Chinese goods, stating that the only way to solve trade issues is through "equal dialogue".
The Office of the United States Trade Representative is holding a seven day hearing to hear potential implications for Trump's values3000The opinions of manufacturers and other enterprises affected by the new round of tariffs on Chinese imported goods worth billions of dollars. All previous hearings have shown overwhelming opposition from various industries to raising tariffs, but it has had no impact. White House Trade Advisor Peter?Navarro said on Friday that they have not yet decided how much tariffs to impose on Chinese imports.
According to the American Broadcasting Corporation(NBC)Reported in Philadelphia, USAEnergy Solutions IncA sudden fire broke out in the refinery, leading to a series of explosions. This refinery processes crude oil33.510000 barrels/It is expected that crude oil demand will be suppressed in the short term.
USD Index
The US dollar index briefly rebounded to96.673Continuing the previous decline after reaching a certain level, touching3month21The lowest level since the beginning of the day96.108For three consecutive trading days, it has closed significantly lower, mainly due to the dovish signals released by the Federal Reserve at last week's policy meeting, followed by moderate remarks from Fed officials. In addition, the United States6monthMarkitThe lower than expected Purchasing Managers' Index has also put pressure on the US dollar.
Market research institutions(Markit Economics)According to the published data,6Monthly Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)Since last month's50.5lower50.1Expected to be50.4;Service industryPMISince last month's50.9lower50.7Less than expected51.0This is another clear proof of the slowdown in the growth rate of the US economy.
With the decline in mortgage interest rates and the increase in the number of mortgage applications, the sales situation of second-hand houses continues to gradually improve. According to data released by the National Association of Realtors,5Monthly sales growth of existing homes2.5%, converted to an annual rate of534Ten thousand sets, expected for growth1.2%or525Ten thousand sets.
In an interview with Bloomberg, Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Clarida said, "In the past6 - 8The uncertainty of the week has increased, and it is widely believed that the reasons for the Federal Reserve to relax its policy have increased. Given that interest rates are far from the zero lower bound, it is necessary for the Federal Reserve to have flexibility in taking action when necessary. ”
St. Louis Federal Reserve President Brad announced on Wednesday at the Federal Open Market Committee(FOMC)Defend the decision to vote for a rate cut at the meeting. It expressed a different opinion at the Federal Reserve meeting because it felt that the factors behind weak inflation were "unlikely" to be temporary. The Federal Reserve hopes to cut interest rates as an "insurance" against further expected inflation rate decline and economic growth slowdown exceeding expectations.
Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari stated on Friday on the official website that theFOMCAt the meeting, I advocated lowering interest rates50Bps to1.75%-2.00%And promise to achieve sustained core inflation2%Do not raise interest rates before the target.
technical analysis
American crude oil
Daily chart: Poly+channel spreads, oil prices closely follow the upward trend;14and20Daily moving average bullish;The random indicator continues to steadily rise in the overbought area.
4Hour chart: Poly+channel rises, oil prices develop between the upper and middle tracks;14and20Bullish moving average;After the random indicator adjustment, it rose again, indicating that oil prices may adjust.
1Hour chart: Poly+channel converges, oil prices fall from the upper track;14The hourly moving average has turned flat,20The upward slope of the hourly moving average is slowing down;The random indicator has declined from the overbought area.
Overview: It is expected that oil prices will decrease within the next few days56.60-59.25Within the range of fluctuations, one can try to sell high and buy low. Attention to resistance above6month21Near the daily high point58.00Pass, after breaking through, we will explore upwards5month28Daily low point58.60And then5month29Daily high point59.25, and5month30Daily high point59.65and60.00Psychological checkpoint;And the following supports attention6month21Daily low point56.60Falling below will lead to exploration5month31Daily high point56.20And then6month20Daily low point54.50and6month19Daily low point53.25, and6month4Daily low point52.40and6month17Daily low point51.55。
Brent crude oil
Daily chart: Poly+channel converges, oil prices move closer to the upper track;14The daily moving average is rising,20The downward slope of the daily moving average is slowing down;The random indicator continues to rise in the overbought area.
4Hour chart: Poly+channel rises, oil prices follow the upward trend;14and20Bullish moving average;Random indicator adjusted to rise again;Indicating a possible adjustment in oil prices.
1Hour chart: Poly+channel convergence, oil prices retrace from the upper track;14The hourly moving average has turned downward,20The upward slope of the hourly moving average is slowing down;The random indicator has declined from the overbought area.
Overview: It is expected that oil prices will decrease within the next few days64.00-67.00Within the range of fluctuations, one can try to sell high and buy low. Attention to resistance above6month21Daily high point65.75Breakthrough will be explored5month30Daily low point66.30And then5month23Daily low point67.00, and5month29Near the daily low point68.00Gateway and5month30Daily high point69.90level;And the following supports attention6month21Daily low point64.00Falling below will lead to exploration6month18Daily high point62.80And then6month20Daily low point62.35and6month19Daily low point61.35, and6month17Daily low point60.70and6month19Daily low point60.20。
Follow on Monday:
U.S.A5Monthly Chicago Federal Reserve National Activity Index
U.S.A6Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Index for the Month
US short-term treasury bond bond auction