Analyst Dong Mingyan: Deep thinking after the surge in gold prices!

客观的来看goldAfter the sharp rise, there will be a relatively optimistic situation in the market, where both individual investors and institutions will experience a collective bullish trend, speculating that a bull market will come and gold will continue to rise. We can even think of watching1500Even at higher levels of analysis, as for whether the price can rise so high, no one can know or predict at present. However, one thing we need to know is that when everyone unanimously believes that the price will continue to rise or even rise higher, perhaps when risks come, at least we will not be crazy enough to think that the rise will not stop and the rise will not stop. On Friday, we also saw that the price rose in the morning, fell after the European market, rose before the US market, washed back and forth one after another, followed by a large retracement, all of which were knocked out to stop losses. The first rebound of the US market was short selling, but the result of a wave of rise was that the short selling was knocked out again, indicating that the lower and higher the price, the more the market. If the trading activity increases, there will be more opportunities for later trading. The trading we do is two-way trading, notAStocks can only be long, short selling is generally not something that retail investors can participate in, so we need to pay attention to the trajectory of the market before participating.

现在我们来简单说一下主观的问题，如果现在你说要大跌，或者会在不断拉升中黄金又见顶，最起码突破1400After the first line, it can be considered as opening up the space for operation, but when there is a sharp decline in the later stage, it will be even crazier. Now, even a fool or a nobody can tell that it is an upward trend. Should we face this problem seriously? Nowadays, long positions are considered to be clockwise participation. If one day the trend ends, how will it go clockwise? Will it go in the opposite direction instead of continuing to rise.

我们看看顶部出现的时候表现，第一，市场一致看多，不会出现看空的声音，而且会上涨的更加的疯狂，把前期参与的空头全部打掉踢出局，收割参与空头的资金！第二，成交量的放大，大的你没有办法想象的情况！第三，媒体会出现不断报道金价继续上行，媒体给机构做一个掩护作用，机构慢慢在通过不断拉升过程中逃离，也就是获利之后出逃，散户进一步的入场，2019The same is true of the stock market in4month20After the peak, there was a drop! Fourthly, institutional position data becomes extreme, meaning that the more the price rises, the larger the long position will be, while the short position will gradually decrease to a historical low. This is when the long position basically reaches a high and slowly forms a short position. Position data can explain all the results. Fifthly, short-term trends are definitely lured by continuous upward movements to attract more expectations for the long position and continue to advance, and then slowly wash out the market to form a new round of trend.

以上不管客观还是主管的思维，我们都认为价格会在不断拉升过程中尤其是加速突破新高之后到达顶部，能否形成下跌需要看市场的跟随性和机构空头进场的情况，其次就是多头绝对不会拉升之后瞬间结束，机构也需要稳住盘面，来完成多空仓位的转换，机构所具有持仓心态，以及持仓周期是常人难以实现的。

现在回归到技术面我们来看看，周五第一次触及黄金月线级别的压制位置，也就是2013It is normal and not surprising for a significant pullback to occur at the high point of the further downward trend formed after the New Year. The question is whether this can be considered a peak or whether it will face a pull-out, washout, and surge. However, the possibility of continuing to reach new highs for a while will decrease, and a sharp drop will not happen for a while, because after all, among bulls, there is a direct one180It is not very realistic for the market to turn from a sharp turn to a major drop. Institutions will not make a big move and kill the bulls when they have not completed their position conversion and bearish formation. They must create an illusion in the market that the bulls will continue to move forward without ending.

黄金周线以及日线都出现了超买区域，也就是我们所谓的技术指标，显示超买区域，不过有些走势是技术面没有办法解释和分析，只有消息面走完，回归正常走势当中，才是技术面起到效果的时候，但是历史当中走过的大顶部和大底部都是值得关注的位置。

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对于下周走势的我们是这样看的，周五出现了冲高回落的走势，并且美盘在一次测试1400At the critical level, not standing above indicates that the momentum for continued upward movement has decreased, and the market has emerged from a large range of high volatility. It will continue to revolve around early next week1400Make a battle for the pass, continue to fluctuate at high levels, and always pay attention to the upper level1400Frontline suppression, if touched, can participate in short positions, depending on the target1390to1384The position of the front line, and1380The region is also a defensive position for bulls, so there will be high-level fluctuations next week, with a trend of constantly rising and falling to wash the market back and forth. It is recommended to strictly control the risk when chasing after bulls, and remember not to be trapped by high positions. After being trapped, it may take several months to form a temporary or even falling market, and it may not be resolved until after the Spring Festival. For short positions, it is necessary to control the risk and not trade heavily. The medium-term layout needs to wait for bulls to completely stagnate before layout, otherwise it will experience a roller coaster trend, making you unable to guard against it. Specific operations will be analyzed in the market and corresponding strategies will be made. Strategies are not dead, but the formation of market trends is always dead and will not change instantly after the trend is formed. Change also requires a transition