Xingye Investment: Caught in a tug of war between long and short positions International oil prices fluctuate

Xingye Investment: Caught in a tug of war between long and short positions International oil prices fluctuate
2019year6month20day
International oil prices fluctuated on Wednesday, with a long short tug of war being the main reason for the fluctuations in oil prices. Concerns over global economic slowdown and trade tensionscrude oilThe bleak demand outlook is the main obstacle to the upward trend of oil prices, butOPEC+The expectation of extending the production reduction agreement and the geopolitical risks in the Middle East have raised concerns about tight crude oil supply, limiting the downward space for oil prices. In addition, the Federal Reserve's signal of interest rate cuts has stimulated risk appetite sentiment and provided some support for risky assets such as crude oil. As of closing, United StatesWTIcrude oil7monthfuturesIncome increase0.18USD, or0.33%Report54.37dollar/Bucket, highest reach54.46dollar/Bucket, lowest drop to53.27dollar/bucket;Brent crude oil8Monthly futures closed lower0.06USD, or0.10%Report62.19dollar/Bucket, highest touch in tray62.52element/Bucket, lowest drop to61.37dollar/Bucket.
Given that most manufacturing and freight indicators have further weakened since the beginning of this year,2019Global crude oil consumption growth may slow down in the coming year, creating2014The lowest level since the beginning of the year. A comprehensive global economic recession is clearly expected to further reduce growth, possibly far below the daily average100Ten thousand barrels and causing severe oversupply in the market. In contrast, according to the US Energy Information Administration(EIA)Assessment and prediction, United States2019Increase in annual production of materials20010000 barrels/On a daily basis, the consumption level pales in comparison.
US Trade Representative Lighthizer told the media on Wednesday that the event is expected to take place in Osaka, Japan20Group of Nations(G20)Prior to the summit, US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin will meet with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He. It is currently unclear when trade negotiations between the United States and China will resume, and it has been reiterated that the United States is "definitely willing" to engage in trade negotiations with China. Cancelling China's retaliatory tariffs and adding new purchases are important components of trade negotiations. A successful trade agreement between China and the United States is in the interests of both parties. If they cannot reach a trade agreement with China, they will have to look for other ways to help the wine industry and other industries that have been hurt by retaliation.
Iraqi officials reported that the oil business in southern Iraq, including exports, was not affected by the Basra rocket incident. According to reports, a rocket hit a foreign oil company in Basra, Iraq, injuring over two staff members.
Reuters cites Iranian news agency Tasnim(Tasnim)A report from the Iranian Atomic Energy Organization stated that Tehran will not extend60The deadline of the day is to no longer fulfill some key commitments in the nuclear agreement. Iranian President Rouhani responded to the statement from the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, stating that withdrawing from some of the commitments under the nuclear agreement is a "minimum" measure. Iran has been protecting the Strait of Hormuz.
Reuters quoted informed sources as saying,OPECAgree to proceed with the original plan6month25day-26The policy meeting held on the day has been postponed to7month1day-2Day.OPECMember states will7month1Hold talks on the day,7month2Day will be with nonOPECMember states hold meetings.
UAE Energy Minister Mazruy stated that,OPECThere will be no difficulty in extending the production reduction agreement, but7The focus of the monthly meeting discussion will be on the duration of the production reduction agreement. Due to the increasing inventory, it is necessary to continue reducing production.OPEC+The scale of production reduction should be maintained at the current level.
US Energy Information Administration(EIA)The latest data shows that as of6month14During the current week, US crude oil inventories decreased310.610000 barrels to4.824Billion barrels, with a record decrease in price5month10The largest decrease in market expectations since the beginning of the week48.110000 barrels;Cushing crude oil inventory increases64.2Ten thousand barrels, continuous3Weekly growth;Reduced inventory of refined oil55.1Ten thousand barrels, market expectations increase71.210000 barrels;Reduced gasoline inventory169.2Ten thousand barrels, continuous4The first decline after weekly growth, and4month26The largest decline since the beginning of the week, with increased market expectations93.510000 barrels;In addition, the domestic crude oil production in the United States decreased last week1010000 barrels to122010000 barrels/Day, continuous2Zhou recorded a decline.
USD Index
The US dollar index rose slightly on Wednesday97.64After the level fluctuated and declined, the Federal Reserve then6The decision to lower the economic balance forecast at the monthly policy meeting, with a dovish shift in the dot matrix and the removal of the word 'patience' from the forward guidance on interest rates, seems to indicate a readiness to take action when necessary. The US dollar index was affected and expanded its decline, hitting97.049Low point within the week, then slightly rebounded and closed at97.198Horizontal.
The Federal Reserve stated in a post meeting statement that it will "take appropriate action to maintain economic expansion" and will "closely monitor the impact of upcoming information on the economic outlook". Chairman Powell stated at a subsequent press conference that since the last meeting, there has been an increase in the reasons for easing policies and uncertainty surrounding the baseline outlook. The dot plot shows that Federal Reserve officials have divergent views on the outlook,17Among the officials, there are8Officials expect2019We will cut interest rates this year, and there will be other8Officials expect to remain inactive this year1People support raising interest rates. Powell admitted that the dot matrix had sent out a signal of interest rate cuts for the first time.
Trump once again expressed his dissatisfaction with Federal Reserve Chairman Powell. After the Federal Open Market Committee meeting, Trump responded to Powell's "I have a four-year term and I hope to complete it," stating that he believes he has the power to replace Federal Reserve Chairman Powell.
US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin passed on WednesdayCNBCIn a phone interview, he stated that he is holding a meeting with White House officials and leaders of both parties in Congress to discuss a spending increase agreement. If Congress and the White House cannot reach a spending agreement, the White House will propose a one-year ongoing resolution and raise the debt ceiling. He also stated that US President Donald Trump?Trump hopes to avoid the risk of default or another government shutdown.
technical analysis
American crude oil
Daily chart: Poly+channel converges, oil prices approach upward trajectory;14The daily moving average is rising,20The downward slope of the daily moving average is slowing down;Random indicators enter the overbought zone.
4Hour chart: Poly+channel spreads, oil prices closely follow the upward trend;14and20The upward slope of the moving average is becoming steeper;After adjusting the random indicators, it once again entered the overbought zone, indicating that oil prices may adjust.
1Hour chart: Poly+channel spreads, oil prices fall from the upper track;14and20The upward slope of the hourly moving average is becoming steeper;The random indicator is rapidly declining.
Overview: It is expected that oil prices will decrease within the next few days53.25-55.80Within the range of fluctuations, one can try to sell high and buy low. Attention to resistance above55.00Psychological barrier, breaking through will lead to exploration5month30Daily low point55.80And then5month31Daily high point56.20, and5month23Daily low point57.30and5month27Daily low point58.10;And the following supports attention6month19Daily low point53.25Falling below will lead to exploration6month4Daily low point52.40And then6month17Daily low point51.55and6month13Daily low point50.90, and6month5Daily low point50.60and1month9Daily low point49.90。
Brent crude oil
Daily chart: Poly+channel converges, oil prices move closer to the central track;14The daily moving average has turned flat,20The downward slope of the daily moving average is slowing down;Random indicators enter the overbought zone.
4Hour chart: Poly+channel flattens, oil prices approach upper limit;14and20Moving averages interweave and rise;Random indicator adjusted to rise again;Indicating a possible adjustment in oil prices.
1Hour chart: Poly+channel spreads, oil prices closely follow the upward trend;14Over the hourly moving average20Hourly moving average;Random indicators withdraw from overbought areas.
Overview: It is expected that oil prices will decrease within the next few days61.35-63.80Within the range of fluctuations, one can try to sell high and buy low. Attention to resistance above6month18Daily high point62.80Breakthrough will be explored6month10Daily high point63.80And then5month31Daily high point64.85, and5month30Daily low point66.30and5month23Daily low point67.30;And the following supports attention6month19Daily low point61.35Falling below will lead to exploration6month17Daily low point60.70And then6month19Daily low point60.20and6month13Daily low point59.75, and6month5Daily low point59.40and1month14Daily low point58.85。
Follow on Thursday:
US Q1 Current Accounts
Weekly unemployment claims in the United States
U.S.A6Monthly Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index