Industrial Investment: Draghi's dovish words strangle the euro Focus on Federal Reserve Resolutions

Industrial Investment: Draghi's dovish words strangle the euro Focus on Federal Reserve Resolutions
2019year6month19day
euro/dollar
On Tuesday, European Central Bank President Draghi said in a speech in Sintra, Portugal that the ECB can still cut interest rates, adjust its guidance, provide relief measures to cope with the negative impact of negative interest rates, and has "considerable room" to purchase more assets. This is the clearest signal that Draghi has sent so far, indicating that stimulus measures are being considered. Draghi's remarks are dovish, and the market expects the European Central Bank to12Reduce interest rates before the end of the month10One basis point. Subsequently, Italian Finance Minister Tria admitted for the first time that the country's economic situation was "not ideal". Under the pressure of both factors, the euro plummeted during trading60Point to1.1180Refresh to a two-week low. In addition, the volatility curve of the euro has become steeper, and the yield of European bonds has fallen,10Yields on 3-year German treasury bond hit a record low;France10The yield of the one-year treasury bond bond fell to zero for the first time. Before the announcement of the Federal Reserve's decision, cautious sentiment in the market limited the decline of the euro, recording a heavy drop and closing at1.1197Maintain a downward trend. Today's focus is on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, which is expected to remain unchanged, but the Fed's guidance on future interest rate cuts is expected to cause a huge stir.
The further rebound of the daily chart overnight is hindered, and it has fallen back again, with significant downward pressure.4Hour chart falls below1.12Guankou materials maintain a downward trend.1The hourly chart has maintained a stable downward trend with recent fluctuations. Be cautious during the day and take advantage of the situation after the Federal Reserve's decision.
Support position:1.1170/1.1140/1.1100
Resistance level:1.1245/1.1300/1.1415
pound/dollar
The second round of the UK Prime Minister election has begun, and former Foreign Secretary Johnson, who strongly supports Brexit, has gained the endorsement of his party colleagues who had previously withdrawn, further increasing his chances of winning and making the risk of a hard Brexit even higher. In addition, the intraday drop in the euro also dragged down the pound. On Tuesday, the pound continued to fluctuate downwards during the Asia Europe session, hitting its lowest point1.2504Create this year1month2The lowest since the beginning of the day. However, after the pound1.25Finding support on the front line, oscillating and rising at low levels, and achievingVType rebound, recorded a moderate increase, closed at1.2565Still below the bottom of the low-level consolidation range. Today you can follow the UK5A series of inflation data for the month, if the data performs well, the pound is expected to return to the range. Vice versa.
Technically, the overnight rebound on the daily chart is relatively mild and still at the bottom of the range1.2575Below the line, pay attention to whether we can break through this resistance within the day.4The hourly chart remains below the moving average system, maintaining a volatile downward trend.1The current rebound on the hourly chart is relatively mild, or the upward momentum is weak, and random indicators suggest a risk of decline. Be cautious during the day and do not break1.2575One line can short below this level.
Support position:1.2500/1.2450/1.2400
Resistance level:1.2600/1.2640/1.2700
dollar/Japanese yen
On Tuesday morning in the Asian market, due to the news of the earthquake in Niigata, Japan, the safe haven surge briefly affected the US dollar/The Japanese yen experienced a short-term plunge and further fluctuated and declined during the Asia Europe session, approaching108Da Guan. But the rise in the US stock market eased risk aversion, and President Trump's speech raised hopes in the market that the trade dispute would soon end. Risk appetite sentiment rebounds, driving the US dollar/The Japanese yen once rose sharply, approaching60At the end of the trading session, the trend fluctuated and eventually recorded a small candlestick with a longer lower shadow, closing at108.57Maintain a low level of organization. Pay attention to trade news and Federal Reserve resolutions within the day.
The daily chart is expected to continue to maintain a weak consolidation at a low level in the short term.4The overall downward trend of the hourly chart remains intact and is currently affected by fluctuationsMA100The suppression is more obvious.1Above the hour chart108.70The front line has been obstructed multiple times, but the material at that location continues to be under pressure. Suggestions for the day can be made on108.80Short selling in nearby light positions.
Support position:108.00/107.70/106.60
Resistance level:109.00/109.65/110.00
AUD/dollar
On Tuesday morning in the Asian market, the Reserve Bank of Australia announced6Monthly meeting minutes. Specifically, the labor market will be particularly important in determining further policy relaxation, and the likelihood of further policy relaxation in the future is greater than the likelihood of no policy relaxation. The dovish Australian Reserve Fund is expected to cause a sharp drop in the Australian dollar in the short term, with the lowest possible dip0.6831Refresh again this year1month2Low levels since the beginning of the day. However, safe haven assets weakened, emerging markets, stock markets, and commodity prices soared, and the Australian dollar quickly fluctuated and rebounded from the low of the day, ultimately recording a significant rebound and closing at0.6880To ease the long-term decline. Today, pay attention to market sentiment and the trend of the US dollar.
The long-term downward trend of the daily chart remains good.4The current rebound momentum on the hourly chart is relatively small, and there is still significant downward pressure.1Hour chart0.6831Supported by nearby fluctuations and rising, but further rebound is currently under pressureMA100The suppression is more obvious. Suggestions for the day can be made on0.69Short selling at the checkpoint.
Support position:0.6800/0.6730/0.6700
Resistance level:0.6935/0.7000/0.7050