兴业投资：空头再度发力 油价暴跌超3%

兴业投资：空头再度发力 油价暴跌超3%
2019year6month13day
国际油价周三继续承压，一度接近一周前触及的近5个月低位，主要受美国crude oil库存继续攀升和贸易争端令全球原油需求前景黯淡的影响。不过，OPEC+减产协议有望在6月底到期后延长，甚至有成员呼吁扩大减产规模，对油价提供一些支持。截止收盘，美国WTIcrude oil7monthfuturesClosing down1.59USD, or3.01%Report51.21dollar/Bucket, highest reach52.82dollar/Bucket, lowest drop to50.71dollar/bucket;Brent crude oil8Monthly futures closed lower2.30USD, or3.71%Report59.74dollar/Bucket, highest touch in tray61.68element/Bucket, lowest drop to59.53dollar/Bucket.
US Energy Information Administration(EIA)The latest data shows that as of6month7During the current week, US crude oil inventories increased220.610000 barrels to4.855Billion barrels, creating2017year7New monthly high, market expectations decrease48.110000 barrels;Cushing crude oil inventory increases209.6Ten thousand barrels, creating2month22The largest increase since the beginning of the week;Reduced inventory of refined oil100Ten thousand barrels, market expectations increase113.810000 barrels;Increase in gasoline inventory76.4Ten thousand barrels, continuous4Weekly growth leads to increased market expectations74.310000 barrels;In addition, the domestic crude oil production in the United States decreased last week1010000 barrels to123010000 barrels/Day, previously continuous3周增长。
全球投资者不再为美墨协议欢呼，因为中美之间的贸易角力再度升温，双方都在积极(indirect)威胁对方。华为再次计划以国家安全为由质疑美国的禁令，该公司援引一些美国政府官员的言论称，美国可能出于经济动机实施了这一禁令，同时中国媒体则不断指责美国总统的行为不公正。另一方面，美国总统特朗普准备对中国额外价值3250亿美元的出口商品征收新关税，如果在20国集团会议没有解决方案或讨论的话。
“能源市场依然低迷，原因是全球增长担忧加剧了人们对美国库存膨胀导致供应过剩的担忧。然而，我们继续强调，全球供应面临的风险仍然特别高，委内瑞拉的石油产量正在崩溃，利比亚陷入动荡，海湾地区的紧张局势正处于白热化状态。我们怀疑我们已经达到了‘法力赫看跌option’的执行价格，最近能源价格的大幅下跌，增加了欧佩克在即将召开的会议上决定延长减产协议的可能性，”道明证券分析师解释道。
路透援引熟悉谈判的OPEC消息人士的话称，预计OPEC+stay6月后仍将延续当前每日120万桶的减产协议。其中一名消息人士表示，现在OPEC之间的所有谈判都是延期减产协议。目前还没有官方提议，只是讨论了更大幅度削减的想法。阿尔及利亚已提出将减产量升至每天18010000 barrels(Improved from the current level6010000 barrels/day)的想法，不过还没有正式讨论过。
另外，路透社援引伊朗官员的话说，伊朗将要求日本首相在德黑兰和华盛顿之间进行斡旋，以减轻美国对伊朗实施的石油制裁。一名伊朗高级官员指出：“日本可以帮助缓解伊朗和美国之间持续的紧张局势。作为一种善意的姿态，美国要么取消不公正的石油制裁，要么延长豁免期，要么暂停制裁。”另一位官员说：“安倍可以成为促成这一目标的伟大调解人。”安倍星期三早些时候离开东京，前往伊朗进行为期两天的访问。
今天晚些时候OPEC将公布原油市场月报，其看点集中在减产协议的执行情况。
USD Index
美元指数周三早盘触及96.5446低点后反弹，纽约开盘前公布的美国通胀数据不及预期，拖累美元指数自高位96.728回撤，不过随后由于美国总统特朗普的制裁威胁引发了美元的避险需求，推动美元指数自接近日内低点快速上扬，一度接近97.00Pass, highest touch96.982水平，随后收于96.964Horizontal.
美国劳工部最新数据显示，5Monthly consumer price index(CPI)Month on month increase0.1%, for1月以来最小增幅，预期值为0.1%, previous value is0.3%;Year-on-year increase1.8%Expected value is1.9%, previous value is2%。 coreCPIMonth on month increase0.1%Expected value is0.2%, previous value is0.1%;Year-on-year increase2%，预期值和前值为2.1%。5monthCPI数据全线不及预期，暗示通胀压力温和，联邦基金利率期货显示美联储7月降息概率上升。目前市场预期美联储7月降息概率超过80%。
美国总统特朗普周三威胁制裁德国，指责默克尔政府继续支持来自俄罗斯的天然气管线项目。特朗普称他正在考虑制裁措施，以阻止可能让柏林受制于莫斯科的Nord Stream 2天然气管线项目。
technical analysis
American crude oil
日图：保利加通道下滑，油价向下轨回落;14and20日均线下行斜率趋陡;Random indicators decline.
4Hour chart: Poly plus channel diffusion, oil prices closely following the downward trend development;14Mean Square and20Bearish moving average;随机指标自超卖区回升，预示油价可能调整。
1小时图：保利加通道下滑，油价向下轨靠近;14and20Hourly moving average bearish;随机指标调整后再度走低。
Overview: It is expected that oil prices will decrease within the next few days49.90-52.80Within the range of fluctuations, one can try to sell high and buy low. Attention to resistance above52.00心理关口，突破将上探6month12Daily high point52.60And then6month11Daily high point54.00and6month3Daily high point54.60, and5month30Daily low point55.80and5month31Daily high point56.20;And the following supports attention6month5Daily low point50.60Falling below will lead to exploration1month9Daily low point49.90And then49.00Psychological barriers, and1month8Daily low point48.30and1month3Daily high point47.50。
Brent crude oil
日图：保利加通道下滑，油价向下轨靠近;14and20日均线下行斜率趋陡;Random indicators decline.
4Hour chart: Poly Plus channel is declining, and oil prices are closely following the downward trend;14Mean Square and20Bearish moving average;随机指标在超卖区震荡走低;Indicating a possible adjustment in oil prices.
1Hour chart: Poly Plus channel is declining, and oil prices are approaching a downward trend;14and20Hourly moving average bearish;随机指标回升。
Overview: It is expected that oil prices will decrease within the next few days58.85-61.65Within the range of fluctuations, one can try to sell high and buy low. Attention to resistance above6month12Daily high point61.65Breakthrough will be explored6month11Daily high point62.85And then6month10Daily high point63.80, and5month31Daily high point64.85and5month30Daily low point66.30;And the following supports attention6month5Daily low point59.40Falling below will lead to exploration1month14Daily low point58.85And then1month4Daily high point58.25，1month8Daily low point57.10and1month2Daily high point56.50。
Follow on Thursday:
OPEC原油市场月报
Weekly unemployment claims in the United States
U.S.A5月进出口物价指数