兴业投资：美国原油产量下降，油价连续两日收高

Industrial Investment: United Statescrude oil产量下降，油价连续两日收高
2019year5month16day
国际油价周三大幅上扬，连续第二个交易日收高，因美国原油产量连续两周下降，以及地缘政治风险令原油供应趋紧的担忧加剧为油价提供支持，但全球宏观经济形势相对薄弱，尤其是贸易争端的不确定性，将抑制原油需求，这对油价上行构成压力。截止收盘，美国WTIcrude oil6monthfuturesIncome increase0.94USD, or1.53%Report62.22dollar/Bucket, highest reach62.32dollar/Bucket, lowest drop to60.83dollar/bucket;Brent crude oil7Monthly futures up0.99USD, or1.40%Report71.92dollar/Bucket, highest touch in tray72.20dollar/Bucket, lowest drop to70.38dollar/Bucket.
International Energy Agency(IEA)在月报中下调了全球石油需求预测，这是自去年10月以来首次，将亚洲经济停滞列为下调需求的主要原因之一。IEA将一季度全球石油需求预估下调4010000 barrels/天，全年预估下调2010000 barrels/Days.2019年的原油需求增长预估下调了910000 barrels/天，至13010000 barrels/天。预计伊朗的产量本月可能降至1980年代两伊战争以来的最低水平。
美国财长努钦周三对媒体讲话中重申他们在与中国的贸易谈判上有很多工作要做，并表示可能在不久的将来的某个时候前往北京参加新一轮谈判。与此同时，彭博社援引知情人士的话说，美国总统特朗普计划将推迟实施汽车关税6个月，暂时缓解了全球贸易冲突进一步扩大的担忧。市场情绪随即好转，这在一定程度上推动了油价走高。
US Energy Information Administration(EIA)The latest data shows that as of5month10During the current week, US crude oil inventories increased543.110000 barrels to4.72Billion barrels, creating2017year9月以来最高水平，市场预期减少8010000 barrels;Cushing crude oil inventory increases180.5Ten thousand barrels, continuous4Weekly recorded growth and created12The largest increase since the beginning of the week;Refined oil inventory increase8.4万桶，此前曾连续8Weekly decline, reduced market expectations100.610000 barrels;Reduced gasoline inventory112.3Ten thousand barrels, market expectations decrease29.910000 barrels;In addition, the domestic crude oil production in the United States decreased last week1010000 barrels to121010000 barrels/Day.EIA报告公布后，美油和布油短暂下滑后随即持续走高。
USD Index
美元指数周三早盘小幅回撤至97.392低点后企稳回升，尽管美国经济数据不佳，但由于意大利预算风波死灰复燃和英国脱欧谈判继续无果导致欧系货币承压，提振了一篮子加权计算下的美元指数，触及97.662日内高点，不过美债收益率下降限制了美元指数涨势，最终小幅收于97.539Horizontal.
美国公布的经济数据喜忧参半。4The manufacturing index of the New York Fed for the month is17.80，好于预期。但零售销售和工业生产数据却差强人意。美国人口普查局发布的报告显示，4月零售销售环比下降0.2%Expected growth0.2%，上月增幅由1.6%Upgraded to1.7%。这是三个月中第二次走低，暗示本季度消费者支出将保持低迷。与此同时，美联储公布的数据显示，4月份工业生产环比下降0.5%，预期持平，前值下跌0.1%。第一季度的产出按年率计算下降了1.9%。制造业生产继3月份持平后，4Monthly decline0.5%，为四个月内第三次录得下跌。4月产能利用率从3Of the month78.5%lower77.9%。这表明经济出现减速的迹象。数据后，亚特兰大联储GDPNowcast模型将美国第二季度GDP预期从1.6%Down to1.1%。
美国国债收益率持续下滑，10年期国债收益率最低触及2.3662, creating2017year12月中旬以来最低水平。而2年期国债收益率已经低于联邦基金利率，暗示市场对于美联储降息已经进一步定价，这对美元构成压力。
里奇蒙特联储主席巴尔金在曼哈顿纽约商业经济学家协会的一项活动中发表讲话称，鉴于当前美国的经济环境，美联储对前景保持耐心是有道理的。在通胀得到控制的情况下，没有充足的理由推高利率;而当经济增长保持健康时，没有充足的理由降低利率。
technical analysis
American crude oil
日图：保利加通道收敛，油价上测中轨;14Daily moving average and20日均线适度下滑;Random indicators are rising.
4小时图：保利加通道扩散，油价跟随上轨发展;14The moving average is attempting to cross20average;随机指标进入超买区后上行势头趋缓;Indicating a possible adjustment in oil prices.
1小时图：保利加通道扩散，油价自上轨回落，14Hourly moving average and20The upward slope of the hourly moving average is becoming steeper;随机指标震荡下滑。
Overview: It is expected that oil prices will decrease within the next few days60.80-63.30Within the range of fluctuations, one can try to sell high and buy low. Attention to resistance above5month13Daily high point63.30Breakthrough will be explored5month2Daily high point63.65And then5month1Daily high point63.90, and4month30Daily high point64.75and4month26Near the daily high point65.00Gateway;And the following supports attention5month15Daily low point60.80Falling below will lead to exploration5month6Daily low point60.00And then3month29Daily low point59.40, and3month27Daily low point58.80and3month28Daily low point58.20。
Brent crude oil
日图：保利加通道略微上扬，油价升穿中轨;14Daily moving average and20日均线转向上行;Random indicators are rising.
4小时图：保利加通道扩散，油价跟随上轨发展;14Mean Square and20均线交织上行;随机指标试图自超买区回撤;Indicating a possible adjustment in oil prices.
1Hour chart: Poly Plus channel up, oil prices falling from the upper track;14Hourly moving average and20The upward slope of the hourly moving average is becoming steeper;随机指标试图回落。
Overview: It is expected that oil prices will decrease within the next few days70.40-74.40Within the range of fluctuations, one can try to sell high and buy low. Attention to resistance above5month13Daily high point72.55Breakthrough will be explored4month30Daily high point72.75And then4month26Daily high point74.40;And the following supports attention5month14Daily high point71.60Falling below will lead to exploration5month13Daily low point69.70And then5month8Daily low point69.30, and5month6Daily low point68.85and3month26Daily high point68.20。
Follow on Thursday:
U.S.A4月新屋开工和营建许可
Number of weekly unemployment benefit applicants in the United States
U.S.A5Monthly Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index
明尼阿波利斯联储主席卡什卡利发表讲话
Federal Reserve Governor Brainard delivers a speech