兴业投资原油周评：贸易争端和地缘局势主导 油价陷入震荡行情

Industrial Investmentcrude oil周评：贸易争端和地缘局势主导 油价陷入震荡行情
2019year5month14day
上周初由于美国宣布对中国进口商品关税从10%Up to25%，令贸易争端骤然升级，刺激市场担忧原油需求下降，国际油价大幅下挫，美油一度逼近60美元关口，布油跌破69美元，纷纷创下4month1日以来新低。但随着美国和伊朗紧张局势日益加剧致伊朗原油出口进一步受阻，同时，俄罗斯原油出口因油管污染问题而下降，令全球原油供应趋紧趋势加剧，油价因此触底震荡回升。截至收盘，美国WTI 6Monthly crude oilfuturesAccumulated decline throughout the week1.39%Report collection61.31dollar/Bucket, highest touch of the week62.93dollar/Bucket, lowest drop to60.03dollar/Bucket. Brent7Monthly crude oil futures have accumulated a decline throughout the week0.08%Report collection70.65dollar/Bucket, highest touch of the week71.77dollar/Bucket, lowest drop to68.85dollar/Bucket.
中美贸易争端加剧了人们对全球经济放缓的担忧，尽管中美双方在最后时刻努力挽救贸易协议，但投资者担心两国可能会陷入一场旷日持久的痛苦贸易争端。美国财政部长努钦表示，“目前”双方不计划进行进一步的贸易谈判。中国副总理刘鹤也列出了下一轮会谈前必须解决的三个关键问题：美国必须取消所有额外关税;制定符合中国实际需求的商品采购目标;确保协议文本“平衡”，以确保两国的“尊严”。
此外，美国总统特朗普威胁要对所有来自中国的进口产品提高关税，并设定了一个月的最后期限来签署协议。美国贸易代表罗伯特?莱特海泽上周五发布了关于1974年贸易法301条款额外行动的声明：“今天早些时候，在总统的指示下，美国针对约价值2000亿的中国进口将关税自10%Increase to25%。总统也指示我们开始对其他来自中国的进口提高关税的程序，其价值约3000亿。”公众通知和评论的程序将在不久之后公布于联邦公报。细节将于周一公布在美国贸易代表办公室网站上。
自特朗普宣布不延长伊朗原油出口制裁豁免，美国和伊朗之间的紧张局势日益加剧，这令该国的原油产量进一步下滑，提升市场担忧原油供应趋紧。从5月起，伊朗石油日出口量可能降至70万桶，甚至低至50万桶。而另一位OPEC消息人士称，伊朗石油日出口量可能仅维持在40-60About ten thousand barrels.
美国已经向中东部署一个航母打击群和一个轰炸机特遣部队，向伊朗发出明确威慑信号。而伊朗方面也毫不示弱，革命卫队航空部门负责人阿米拉利?哈吉扎德表示，美国在海湾地区的军事力量现在是“目标”，不再是“威胁”。如果美国采取行动，他们将“击中他们的要害”。
此外，特朗普政府周三对伊朗最大的非石油相关出口收入来源的工业金属出口实施新的制裁，并威胁称，除非德黑兰“从根本上”改变其行为，否则将采取进一步行动。而伊朗随后表示将会对此做出部分反制措施，且伊朗总统鲁哈尼发表电视讲话，宣布伊朗中止履行伊核协议部分条款，不再对外出售重水和浓缩铀。
Despite opposition from the United Nations and the international community, the Libyan National Army led by Haftar launched an attack on the capital, Tripoli, and made little progress after more than a month, leading to a stalemate in the war. The longer the war lasts, the greater the possibility of a disruption in Libya's oil supply. Oil supply decreases year-on-year in Iran and Venezuela19010000 barrels/On a daily basis, the interruption of Libyan oil supply may further increase the supply gap10010000 barrels/Day.
由于原油污染致使德鲁兹巴管道关停和主要原油出口港口的中断，俄罗斯原油出口连续受损，降幅达到逾10010000 barrels/Day.
Commodity Futures Trading Commission of the United States(CFTC)5month10According to the report released on the day, as of5month1Solstice5month7The speculative net long position of crude oil for the current week has decreased29767Hand contract, to494336手合约，连续第二周下降，表明投资者看多原油的意愿继续降温。
In terms of inventory, major institutions unexpectedly increased their inventory data last week, but the number of oil drilling in the United States sharply decreased. American Petroleum Institute(API)The latest data shows that as of5month3During the current week, US crude oil inventories increased28110000 barrels to4.692Billion barrels, market expectations increase74.410000 barrels;Cushing inventory increase61.810000 barrels;Reduced gasoline inventory283Ten thousand barrels, market expectations decrease91.710000 barrels;Reduced inventory of refined oil83.4Ten thousand barrels, market expectations decrease113.5Ten thousand barrels. US Energy Information Administration(EIA)The latest report shows that as of5month3During the current week, US crude oil inventories unexpectedly decreased396.310000 barrels to4.666Billion barrels, creating7The largest decline since the beginning of the week, with increased market expectations121.510000 barrels;Cushing crude oil inventory increases82.110000 barrels/Day, continuous3Weekly growth and innovation9The largest increase since the beginning of the week;Reduced inventory of refined oil15.9Ten thousand barrels, continuous8Weekly decline, reduced market expectations109.610000 barrels;Reduced gasoline inventory59.6Ten thousand barrels, market expectations decrease43.410000 barrels;In addition, the domestic crude oil production in the United States decreased last week1010000 barrels to122010000 barrels/日。美国油服公司贝克休斯最新数据显示，截至5month10During the current week, the number of active oil wells in the United States decreased2Seat to805座，四周内有三周录得下降;The total number of active oil and gas drilling in the United States has decreased2Seat to988seat;天然气活跃钻井数持平于183Seat.
Looking ahead to this week, crude oil traders will continue to monitorAPIandEIAIn addition to crude oil inventory data, it is also important to pay attention to Tuesday'sOPEC和周三的国际能源署(IEA)Monthly oil report,OPECThe focus of the monthly report is on the implementation of the production reduction agreement,IEA月报则关注全球原油需求展望，这些月报都将不同程度影响油价。经济数据方面，值得关注的是4Monthly import and export price index4Monthly retail sales5The New York Fed Manufacturing Index for the month4Monthly industrial production5Monthly Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index4月新屋开工和营建许可及5月密歇根大学消费者信心指数。其中周三20:30发布的零售销售数据将格外吸引全球眼球。由于消费占美国经济整体70%份额，因此零售数据不佳，表明民众消费意愿下降，将导致市场对美国经济前景恶化预期升温。HYCMIndustrial Investment(britain)分析师预期4Monthly retail sales increased month on month0.2%, much lower than the previous value1.6%，若果真如此，将是2019年以来最低水平，这将施压美元。周内多位美联储官员将发表讲话，其中包括：波士顿联储主席罗森格伦、美联储副主席克拉里达、纽约联储主席威廉姆斯、堪萨斯城联储主席乔治、美联储理事夸尔斯、里奇蒙德联储主席巴尔金、明尼阿波利斯联储主席卡什卡利。这可能会让市场重新关注美联储的操作框架评估。罗森格伦和克拉里达可能会对通胀的“弥补”政策给予一些支持，而乔治应该发出更严厉的声音，巴尔金最近尚未对前景或评估发表看法，而卡什卡利应该是美联储最温和的声音。另外，还需关注特朗普或在5month18日前就汽车关税前景作出决定，一旦其作出激进选择，本已经疲弱的欧盟经济将继续首当其冲，而这也将对原油需求构成影响。
技术面上看，美油周图保利加通道收敛，油价回撤至14周均线处获得支持，14Weekly moving averages and20周均线看涨，慢步随机指标仍然下滑。美油上周企稳回升，技术指标涨跌不一，预计本周油价将区间震荡。支撑分别位于60.65、59.40、58.20The resistance in order is62.50、63.65、64.75。
布油周图保利加通道收敛，油价暂在14周均线处获得支持，14Zhou He20周均线上行斜率趋缓，慢步随机指标下滑。布油上周触底回升，技术指标涨跌不一，预计本周油价或区间震荡。支撑分别位于70.00、68.65、67.80The resistance in order is71.50、72.75、74.00。