Industrial Investment: Inventory reduction and tense US Iran situation Oil prices rise moderately

Industrial Investment: Inventory reduction and tense US Iran situation Oil prices rise moderately
2019year5month9day
International oil prices closed moderately higher on Wednesday due to the United Statescrude oilThe unexpected decrease in inventory and production, as well as the escalating tensions between Iran and the United States, have provided support for oil prices. However, concerns about a possible breakdown in US China trade negotiations and news of Saudi Arabia increasing production have limited the upward trend in oil prices. As of closing, United StatesWTIcrude oil6monthfuturesIncome increase0.4USD, or0.65%Report61.94dollar/Bucket, highest reach62.35dollar/Bucket, lowest drop to61.35dollar/bucket;Brent crude oil7Monthly futures up0.48USD, or0.69%Report70.29dollar/Bucket, highest touch in tray70.66dollar/Bucket, lowest drop to69.30dollar/Bucket.
Iranian state media quoted Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif as saying that Iran will not withdraw from the nuclear agreement, but will reduce some of the "voluntary" commitments in the agreement. Iranian President Rouhani also issued a statement regarding the Iran nuclear agreement, stating that Iran will suspend some of its commitments to the agreement and give the remaining signatories to the agreement - the United Kingdom, France, Germany, China, and Russia——60Time to fulfill their commitments and protect Iran's oil and banking industries from US sanctions if signatory countries do not comply2015Under the commitments of the nuclear agreement, Iran will cease to fulfill further commitments and resume high-level uranium enrichment activities, no longer selling enriched uranium and heavy water to other countries.
2019year5month8On the first anniversary of the US withdrawal from the Iran nuclear agreement, Trump announced new sanctions against Iran, banning the trade of Iranian metals. Trump's new sanctions on Iranian industrial metals cover the country's steel, aluminum, and copper industries, which are Iran's largest non oil related export revenue sources.
US Energy Information Administration(EIA)The latest data shows that as of5month3During the current week, US crude oil inventories unexpectedly decreased396.310000 barrels to4.666Billion barrels, creating7The largest decline since the beginning of the week, with increased market expectations121.510000 barrels;Cushing crude oil inventory increases82.110000 barrels/Day, continuous3Weekly growth and innovation9The largest increase since the beginning of the week;Reduced inventory of refined oil15.9Ten thousand barrels, continuous8Weekly decline, reduced market expectations109.610000 barrels;Reduced gasoline inventory59.6Ten thousand barrels, market expectations decrease43.410000 barrels;In addition, the domestic crude oil production in the United States decreased last week1010000 barrels to122010000 barrels/Day.EIAAfter the report was released, US oil and Brent crude rose.
On Wednesday, the Federal Register published a notice stating that the United States will5month10From now on, the value will be enhanced2,000The tariffs on Chinese imported goods worth billions of dollars10%Increase to25%The Chinese side immediately responded, with a spokesperson for the Ministry of Commerce stating that escalating trade frictions is not in the interests of the people of both countries and the world. China deeply regrets this and will have to take necessary countermeasures if the US tariff measures are implemented. This has raised concerns about the possibility of a complete breakdown in negotiations. The focus of the market is now shifting towards the actual outcome of the meeting between US China trade negotiators in Washington. If the negotiations break down, it is expected to have a significant impact on oil prices.
Faced with the tight supply environment caused by Trump's sanctions on Iran, although Saudi Arabia will not violate its commitment to reduce production, it may moderately expand exports. According to sources in the Gulf region cited by Reuters, Saudi Arabia is expected to do so this year6The monthly oil output will still be lower thanOPEC+Target for reducing oil supply to Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia has received proposals from oil consuming countries6Saudi Arabia will meet all the "moderate requirements" for expanding exports on a monthly basis.
USD Index
The US dollar index remained stable on Wednesday97.372-97.639Narrow fluctuations within the range, the current focus of the market is the China US trade dispute, and investors' concerns about the collapse of trade negotiations are temporarily prevailing. On the other hand, the lack of momentum in US inflation and concerns from Federal Reserve members are currently challenging the recent rise of the US dollar index. However, the decline in the US dollar index should be limited due to weak overseas growth, safe haven appeal, and the relative strength of US bonds to others10The favorable yield difference of the bonds of the member countries of the Group of Nations and the position of the global reserve currency make the prospect of the US dollar still constructive.
Federal Reserve Governor Brainard stated during the Richmond community hearing that the Fed should consider targeting long-term interest rates in the event of future economic downturns and adjust policies in a timely manner based on demand. At the same time, Richmond Fed Chairman Tom?Barkin said in a speech at an event of the Richmond Fed that it is "difficult" for the United States to fall into recession due to historically low unemployment and interest rates. He is satisfied with financial stability and believes that the economy will maintain strong growth.
On Wednesday, the auction scale of the US Treasury Department was270Billion dollar United States103-year treasury bond, with bid multiples falling to more than11The lowest in years. One reason for the dismal US bond auction may be that the decline in US bond yields this week has curbed investors' demand for new bonds, which has put some pressure on the auction of US long-term treasury bond bonds.
technical analysis
American crude oil
Daily chart: Poly+channel spreads, oil prices develop between the middle and lower tracks;14The downward slope of the daily moving average is becoming steeper,20The daily moving average is moderately declining;Random indicators are attempting to decline.
4Hour chart: Poly+channel flattens, oil prices develop near the mid track;14The moving average has turned downward,20The moving average has slightly increased;Random indicator decline;Indicating a possible adjustment in oil prices.
1Hour chart: Poly+channel declines, oil prices develop below the medium track;14Hourly moving average and20The hourly moving average has turned downward;The random indicator is close to the overbought area.
Overview: It is expected that oil prices will decrease within the next few days60.00-62.90Within the range of fluctuations, one can try to sell high and buy low. Attention to resistance above5month7Rihe8Daily high point62.35/45Breakthrough will be explored5month2Daily high point63.65And then5month1Daily high point63.90, and4month30Daily high point64.75and4month26Near the daily high point65.00Gateway;And the following supports attention61.00Pass, if it falls below, it will explore downwards5month7Daily low point60.65And then5month6Daily low point60.00and3month29Daily low point59.40, and3month27Daily low point58.80and3month28Daily low point58.20。
Brent crude oil
Daily chart: Poly+channel spreads, oil prices are developing towards the lower track;14Daily moving average and20The daily moving average has turned downward;Random indicators decline.
4Hour chart: Poly+channel slightly down, oil price rise constrained by medium track;14Mean Square and20Bearish moving average;Random indicator decline;Indicating a possible adjustment in oil prices.
1Hour chart: Poly+channel declines, oil prices follow downward trend;14Hourly moving average and20The hourly moving average remains unchanged;Random indicators enter the oversold zone.
Overview: It is expected that oil prices will decrease within the next few days68.85-71.30Within the range of fluctuations, one can try to sell high and buy low. Attention to resistance above5month8Daily high point70.65Breakthrough will be explored5month7Daily high point71.30And then5month6Daily high point71.75and5month2Daily high point72.15, and4month30Daily high point72.75and11month8Daily high point73.05;And the following supports attention5month8Daily low point69.30Falling below will lead to exploration5month6Daily low point68.85And then3month26Daily high point68.20, and4month1Daily low point67.85and3month29Daily low point67.10。
Follow on Thursday:
U.S.A4Monthly Producer Price Index
U.S.A3Monthly trade account
Number of weekly unemployment benefit applicants in the United States
U.S.A3Monthly wholesale inventory rate
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Atlanta Fed President Bostic delivers speech
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