Industrial Investment: Trade disputes and growth concerns, oil bears regain dominant position

Industrial Investment: Trade Disputes and Growth Concerns,crude oilBears regain dominant position
2019year5month8day
International oil prices fell again on Tuesday due to increased uncertainty in the US China trade dispute and concerns about global economic growth suppressing market sentimentAPICrude oil inventories continue to rise. However, the geopolitical tensions in Iran have limited the downward trend of oil prices. As of closing, United StatesWTIcrude oil6monthfuturesClosing down0.72USD, or1.20%Report61.54dollar/Bucket, highest reach62.48dollar/Bucket, lowest drop to60.65dollar/bucket;Brent crude oil7Monthly futures closed lower1.11USD, or1.57%Report69.81dollar/Bucket, highest touch in tray71.30dollar/Bucket, lowest drop to69.35dollar/Bucket.
Although US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin and Trade Representative Lighthizer confirmed that they will meet on Friday Eastern Time12:01Regarding value2000Billion dollar tariffs on Chinese goods10%Ascend to25%However, Beijing will not make concessions in trade negotiations. Chinese official media stated in a commentary that "we will do what we believe is beneficial to us, even if no one demands it. We will not take a step back on what is detrimental to us, no matter how you demand it. Don't even think about it!”The fact that China will not succumb to Trump's tariff threat has laid the foundation for a prolonged negotiation. In addition, next Friday, US President Trump will decide whether to impose higher tariffs on European and Japanese car imports. The uncertainty of trade disputes is likely to continue putting pressure on oil prices and commodity markets.
According to the Russian news agencyRIAAccording to reports, Iran and the European Union are about to reach an agreement allowing Iran to sell crude oil to the EU. The market immediately reacted to this news, with US oil and Brent crude expanding their downward trend during trading. If this news is confirmed to be true, the United States may react and we can see a new wave of safe haven sentiment.
Russian Energy Minister Novak said in a phone interview on Tuesday that clean oil is expected to5month8Arrived in Ust on a daily basis-Luga Port, Russia's oil production and exports are not affected by pollution issues. Reuters quoted some sources as saying that recent tests have shown that Russia's Ust-The organic chlorine content in Luger crude oil has decreased to parts per million60to75However, Russia's oil supply to Poland and Germany through the Druzbar pipeline is still suspended, and the plan to resume supply is still unclear.
In addition, the US Energy Information Administration(EIA)In the short-term energy outlook report released on Tuesday2019Expected decrease in global crude oil demand growth rate in210000 barrels/Solstice13810000 barrels/Day, will2020Expected decrease in global crude oil demand growth rate in810000 barrels/Solstice15310000 barrels/day;And increase it2019Year and2020Annual US crude oil production to124510000 barrels/Rihe133810000 barrels/The previous expectations were123910000 barrels/Rihe131010000 barrels/day;However, it will2019Year and2020The annual US oil prices are from58.80and58.00Up to62.80and63dollar/The prices of barrels and cloth oil are respectively from65.15and62.00Up to69.65and67.00dollar/Bucket.
On Tuesday, the European Commission lowered its overall growth expectations and considered the economic outlook pessimistic, which put significant downward pressure on oil prices. The European Commission has raised Germany's economic growth forecast for this year from earlier estimates1.1%Cut to the waist0.5%This is the second time this year that the European Union has lowered Germany's standardsGDPThe expected growth rate for the Eurozone this year will also be revised from earlier expectations1.3%reduce to1.2%Far below2018Of1.9%。
The escalation of geopolitical tensions is providing partial support for oil prices. Amid ongoing pressure from the United States on Iran's oil exports, Iran has threatened to take reciprocal action.
In addition, the American Petroleum Institute(API)The latest data shows that as of5month3During the current week, US crude oil inventories increased28110000 barrels to4.692Billion barrels, market expectations increase74.410000 barrels;Cushing inventory increase61.810000 barrels;Reduced gasoline inventory283Ten thousand barrels, market expectations decrease91.710000 barrels;Reduced inventory of refined oil83.4Ten thousand barrels, market expectations decrease113.5Ten thousand barrels.
USD Index
The US dollar index touched early Tuesday97.343After the low point, the volatility rose. The overall optimistic tone of the Federal Reserve officials' speech and the sharp drop in the yield of German treasury bond bonds led to the widening of the interest rate gap between German and US treasury bond, which provided support for the higher dollar. In addition, the risk aversion stemming from the US China trade dispute has also supported demand for the US dollar. However, the US dollar index hit97.705After reaching a high point, it was blocked and fell back, eventually closing slightly higher than97.556Horizontal.
Earlier on Tuesday, Dallas Fed President Kaplan(2020Year with voting rights, a dovish figure)The speech stated that the economy is expected to remain healthy, ruling out the possibility of a recent economic downturn or recession.
Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Clarida stated in an interview with Bloomberg that the US economy is in a good state, and the economic slowdown is caused by temporary factors. The focus is on restoring the inflation rate to2%The target level will be set and policies will be adjusted as necessary.
At the same time, Federal Reserve Governor Quarles stated that the current inflation level is in line with the Fed's goals, overall financial stability risks remain moderate, and central bank independence is beneficial for the United States.
technical analysis
American crude oil
Daily chart: Poly+channel spreads, oil prices are developing towards the lower track;14Daily moving average and20Daily moving average down;Random indicators are rising.
4Hour chart: Poly+channel flattens, oil prices develop near the mid track;14The moving average remains flat,20The moving average has slightly increased;Random indicators rise;Indicating a possible adjustment in oil prices.
1Hour chart: Poly plus channel convergence, oil prices developing above the mid rail;14The hourly moving average is approaching upward20Hourly moving average;Random indicators continue to rise in the overbought area.
Overview: It is expected that oil prices will decrease within the next few days60.00-62.90Within the range of fluctuations, one can try to sell high and buy low. Attention to resistance above5month7Daily high point62.50Breakthrough will be explored5month2Daily high point63.65And then5month1Daily high point63.90, and4month30Daily high point64.75and4month26Near the daily high point65.00Gateway;And the following supports attention5month7Daily low point60.65Falling below will lead to exploration5month6Daily low point60.00And then3month29Daily low point59.40, and3month27Daily low point58.80and3month28Daily low point58.20。
Brent crude oil
Daily chart: Poly+channel slightly expands, oil prices close to the lower track development;14Daily moving average and20The daily moving average has turned downward;Random indicators are rising.
4Hour chart: Poly+channel flattens, oil prices rise close to the medium track;14The moving average is declining,20Flat moving average;Random indicators rebound from oversold areas;Indicating a possible adjustment in oil prices.
1Hour chart: Poly+channel convergence, oil prices rise to medium track;14The hourly moving average has turned flat,20The downward slope of the hourly moving average is slowing down;Random indicators enter the overbought zone.
Overview: It is expected that oil prices will decrease within the next few days69.35-71.75Within the range of fluctuations, one can try to sell high and buy low. Attention to resistance above5month7Daily high point71.30Breakthrough will be explored5month6Daily high point71.75And then5month2Daily high point72.15, and4month30Daily high point72.75and11month8Daily high point73.05;And the following supports attention5month7Daily low point69.35Falling below will lead to exploration5month6Daily low point68.85And then3month26Daily high point68.20, and4month1Daily low point67.85and3month29Daily low point67.10。
Follow on Wednesday:
Federal Reserve Governor Brainard delivers a speech
U.S.AEIAChanges in crude oil inventory