兴业投资：特朗普呼吁OPEC降价 油价暴跌逾3%

兴业投资：特朗普呼吁OPEC降价 油价暴跌逾3%
2019year4month29day
国际油价上周五大幅下挫，主要受累于特朗普呼吁OPEC+增产以填补美国对伊朗和委内瑞拉收紧制裁导致的crude oil供应缺口，此外，技术上的超买状况令投资者出脱多头也令油价承压。不过，伊朗可能采取的报复行动、利比亚的地缘政治问题以及贝克休斯美国石油活跃钻井数锐减的数据，限制了油价的进一步跌势。截止收盘，美国WTIcrude oil6monthfuturesClosing down2.09USD, or3.22 %Report62.87dollar/Bucket, highest reach65.04dollar/Bucket, lowest drop to62.26dollar/bucket;Brent crude oil6Monthly futures closed lower2.68USD, or3.61%Report71.61dollar/Bucket, highest touch in tray74.39dollar/Bucket, lowest drop to71.27dollar/Bucket.
上周五美国总统特朗普再度发声，要求石油输出国组织(OPEC)提高产量从而降低汽油价格。“汽油价格正在下降。我给OPEC打了电话。我说，‘你们必须把油价降下来，’”特朗普在前往印第安纳波利斯参加全国步枪协会活动途中对记者说。而华尔街日报消息称，OPEC秘书长巴尔金多、沙特王储及能源部长都未与特朗普谈话。国际油价一度收窄跌幅。但稍后特朗普发推称，他和沙特等方谈到了石油流增加，各方都一致认同。油价再度扩大跌势。
另有传闻称，美国方面可能会给予中国进口伊朗原油的豁免权，从而保证中国能在当前的豁免权到期后继续从伊朗购买原油，这也加大了油价的下行压力。
据伊朗国家通讯社IRNA报道，伊朗能源部长赞加内称，美国的行为和石油制裁不是虚张声势，而是对伊朗非常暴力敌意的结果;沙特阿拉伯和阿联酋夸大了他们的石油产能。
其他方面，利比亚国内武装冲突持续升级，委内瑞拉的停电事故仍未解决。这些因素也削减了全球石油供应。
According to the latest data from American oil service company Baker Hughes, as of4month26During the current week, the number of active oil wells in the United States decreased20Seat to805座，创逾三个月最大单周降幅;The total number of active oil and gas drilling in the United States has decreased21Seat to991seat;Reduction in active drilling of natural gas1Seat to186Seat.
USD Index
美元指数上周五早盘小幅反弹至98.193回补稍早前缺口后震荡走低，但守稳98.00关口，而后纽约开盘前美国公布的第一季度GDP数据强劲，推动美元指数飙升至98.292盘中高点，但由于同时公布的个人消费支出(PCE)物价指数疲软及库德洛再度敦促美联储降息，美元指数因此受累走低，触及97.813盘中低点，随后略有反弹，收于98.005Horizontal.
美国商务部经济分析局上周五公布的报告显示，美国一季度实际GDP年化季率初值为3.2%, creating2018年第三季度以来新高，远高于市场预期的2.0%And before value2.2%。不过，经济增长的构成并不特别稳固。在3.2%ofGDP增长中，超过一半来自于净出口的大幅增长和库存的增加——这两项都不太可能在短期内持续发力。
同时公布的美国第一季度个人消费支出(PCE)物价指数悲观，个人消费支出(PCE)物价指数年化季率初值为0.6%Less than expected1.3%And before value1.5%;corePCE年化季率初值为1.3%, creating2017年第三季度以来新低，低于市场预期的1.6%And before value1.8%。
美国数据公布后，白宫首席经济顾问库德洛向CNBC表示，即使美国GDPwith3.2%的增速增长，美联储仍然应当降息。目前市场预计美联储9个月内降息概率升至70%。
technical analysis
American crude oil
日图：保利加通道收敛，油价逼近下轨;14日均线试图下穿20Daily moving average;Random indicators enter the oversold zone.
4小时图：保利加通道扩散，油价靠近下轨发展;14Mean Square and20均线下行斜率趋陡;Random indicators rebound from oversold areas;Indicating a possible adjustment in oil prices.
1小时图：保利加通道下滑，油价自下轨回升;14Hourly moving average and20Hourly moving average bearish;Random indicators fluctuate upwards.
Overview: It is expected that oil prices will decrease within the next few days61.80-63.75Within the range of fluctuations, one can try to sell high and buy low. Attention to resistance above4month15Daily high point63.75Breakthrough will be explored4month17Daily high point64.60And then4month26Near the daily high point65.00关口，以及4month25/24Daily high point66.25/40and4month23Daily high point66.60;And the following supports attention4month26Daily low point62.25，跌破将下探然后是4month5Daily low point61.80And then4month2Daily low point61.55, and3month29Daily high point60.70and4month1Daily low point60.30。
Brent crude oil
日图：保利加通道收敛，油价下测中轨;14The daily moving average has turned flat,20日均线上行斜率趋缓;Random indicators decline.
4小时图：保利加通道扩散，油价靠近下轨发展;14Mean Square and20均线下行斜率趋陡;Random indicators rebound from oversold areas;Indicating a possible adjustment in oil prices.
1小时图：保利加通道下滑，油价自下轨回升;14Hourly moving average and20Hourly moving average bearish;Random indicators are rising.
Overview: It is expected that oil prices will decrease within the next few days70.70-73.05Within the range of fluctuations, one can try to sell high and buy low. Attention to resistance above4month22Daily low point72.40，突破将上探去年11month8Daily high point73.05And then4month26Daily high point74.40, and4month23/24Daily high point74.70and4month25Daily high point75.55;And the following supports attention4month26Daily low point71.25Falling below will lead to exploration4month16Daily low point70.70, and70.00Psychological barriers and4month5Daily low point68.90。
Follow on Monday:
U.S.A3月个人收入和支出
美国个人消费支出物价指数
U.S.A4Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Index for the Month