兴业投资：多重利好提振多头信心，油价再创4个多月新高

兴业投资：多重利好提振多头信心，油价再创4个多月新高
2019year4month1day
internationalcrude oil上周五继续强势走高，主要受俄罗斯否认仅同意延长减产协议三个月、原油看多意愿升温、伊朗和委内瑞拉原油出口因美国制裁而受阻，以及美国石油活跃钻井平台连续6周下降等多重利好因素支持，不过中美贸易谈判仍存在分歧，对油价上行构成一定压力。截止收盘，美国WTIcrude oil5monthfuturesIncome increase0.64USD, or1.08%Report60.14dollar/Bucket, highest reach60.71dollar/Bucket, lowest drop to59.41dollar/bucket;Brent crude oil6Monthly futures up0.32USD, or0.48%Report67.56dollar/Bucket, highest touch in tray68.28dollar/Bucket, lowest drop to67.13dollar/Bucket.
俄罗斯能源部长诺瓦克在接受塔斯社(TASS)采访时否认了有关俄罗斯只会同意将原油减产协议延长3个月的报道。“我们没这样说，”诺瓦克称，“俄罗斯、伊朗讨论延长欧佩克+协议的可能性。延长全球原油产量削减协议的讨论将从5月份开始。”
据日经新闻亚洲评论报道，上周在北京进行了两天的讨论，但未能弥合分歧，这引发了一些担忧，尤其是来自中国习近平的担忧。由于难以达成妥协，习近平对与特朗普举行峰会持谨慎态度。
Commodity Futures Trading Commission of the United States(CFTC)最新报告显示，截止3month20Solstice3month26日当周，原油投机性净多头增加33873Hand contract, to448619Hand contracts indicate an increasing willingness among investors to be bullish on crude oil.
美国官员上周五表示，华盛顿非常希望马来西亚、新加坡和其他国家充分了解伊朗的非法石油出口，以及伊朗逃避制裁的策略。美国本周对伊朗又施加了“巨大压力”;与此同时，三名知情人士称，美国已指示全球石油贸易公司和炼油厂，进一步减少与委内瑞拉的石油贸易，否则将面临制裁。
According to the latest data from American oil service company Baker Hughes, as of3month29During the current week, the number of active oil wells in the United States decreased8Seat to816座，连续六周录得下降，3月活跃钻井数累计减少37Seat2016year4月以来最大单月降幅，当时减少了40seat;The total number of active oil and gas drilling in the United States has decreased10Seat to1006seat;Reduction in active drilling of natural gas2Seat to190Seat.
USD Index
美元指数上周五早盘震荡上扬至97.303盘中高点后受阻回落，纽约市场开盘前，美国公布的美联储青睐的通胀数据不及预期以及白宫首席经济顾问库德洛呼吁美联储降息，拖累美元指数触及96.967盘中低点，不过新屋销售强劲以及英国首相特雷莎?梅提出的脱欧协议再遭否决重击英镑，支持美元指数反弹，最终收高于97.227。
美国商务部公布数据显示，美国1Monthly core personal consumption expenditure(PCE)Price index increased month on month0.1%，不及预期和前值的0.2%;The year-on-year growth rate is1.8%, less than expected1.9%The previous value is from1.9%Revised to2%;1monthPCE物价指数环比下滑0.1%, less than expected0%, Previous value0.1%. Additionally,1月个人消费支出环比上升0.1%, less than expected0.3%，前值由下降0.5%进一步向下修至下降0.6%。 U.S.A2月个人收入环比上升0.2%, less than expected0.3%The previous value is a downward trend0.1%。疲软的消费者支出报告延续了从新屋开工到制造业等一系列数据的疲弱走势。这些数据显示，美国经济在一季度初大幅放缓。由于1.5万亿美元减税政策和政府开支增加所带来的刺激效应消退，美国经济正在失去动力。
美国商务部数据显示，美国2月份新屋销售季调后环比增长4.9%, to66.7Ten thousand households, creating2018year3月份以来新高，高于此前经济学家预期的增长2.1%，意味着住房抵押贷款利率的降低开始利好美国住房市场。
明尼阿波利斯联储主席卡什卡利在讲话中表示，美国经济陷入衰退的可能性已经上升，但基本假设仍然是不会在可预见的未来陷入衰退。如果经济增速出现实质性地放缓，将支持降息，不过现在谈论降息前景还为时过早。
美联储理事，金融监管副主席夸尔斯在纽约发表讲话表示，不认为近期出现的美债收益率曲线倒挂意味着美国经济会陷入衰退，而美联储资产负债表的规模等因素倒是可能会造成衰退。对美国经济前景持乐观态度，随着经济的改善，未来在某个时点加息是必要的。
特朗普上周五再次在推特上对美联储主席鲍威尔进行指责。“如果美联储没有错误地升息，尤其是在通胀非常低的情况下，若他们没有在可笑的时间内实施量化紧缩，3.0%ofGDP和美国股市本来可以进一步走高，世界市场本会更好!”特朗普在推文中称。早些时候，白宫首席经济顾问库德洛呼吁美联储立即降息50个基点，此举加剧了特朗普政府与美联储之间的不和谐关系，并挑战了美联储的独立性。
technical analysis
American crude oil
日图：保利加通道略微收敛，油价靠近上轨发展;14Daily moving average and20日均线适度上行;Random indicators enter the overbought zone.
4Hour chart: Poly+channel spreads, oil prices closely follow the upward trend;14均线试图上破20average;随机指标调整后试图再度转向上扬;Indicating a possible adjustment in oil prices.
1Hour chart: Poly Plus channel rising, oil prices approaching the upper track development;14小时均线上行斜率趋缓，20The upward slope of the hourly moving average is becoming steeper;The random indicator has declined from the overbought area.
Overview: It is expected that oil prices will decrease within the next few days58.80-61.25Within the range of fluctuations, one can try to sell high and buy low. Attention to resistance above3month29Daily high point60.70，突破将上探去年11month12Daily high point61.25，然后是去年11month8Daily high point62.40和去年11month7Daily high point63.15;And the following supports attention3month,9Daily low point59.40Falling below will lead to exploration3month27Daily low point58.80And then3month28Daily low point58.20, and3month15Daily low point57.75and3month13Daily low point57.00。
Brent crude oil
日图：保利加通道走势平稳，油价靠近中轨上方发展;14Daily moving average and20日均线适度走高;Random indicators are rising.
4小时图：保利加通道似有扩散迹象，油价在中轨上方发展;14均线轻微上扬，20Flat moving average;随机指标转向上扬;预示油价可能继续震荡。
1小时图：保利加通道上扬，油价紧随上轨发展;14Hourly moving average and20小时看涨;Random indicators enter the oversold zone.
Overview: It is expected that oil prices will decrease within the next few days66.50-69.65Within the range of fluctuations, one can try to sell high and buy low. Attention to resistance above3month27Daily high point68.30Breakthrough will be explored3month21Daily high point68.65，然后是去年11month9Daily low point69.10和去年11month13Daily high point69.65;And the following supports attention3month29Daily low point67.10Pass, if it falls below, it will explore downwards3month28Daily low point66.50And then3month22Daily low point66.15, and3month11Daily low point65.60and3month5Daily low point65.00。
Follow on Monday:
U.S.A2Monthly retail sales
U.S.A3monthMarkitManufacturing Purchasing Managers Index
U.S.A3monthISMManufacturing Index