DeWei Securities Xiaokai:3month26Suggestions and opinions on making single sheets of Japanese rubber thread coke

DeWei Securities Xiaokai:3month26Suggestions and opinions on making single sheets of Japanese rubber thread coke


　
　今日商品将表现如下：


　　一、螺纹：1905rbToday's meeting will be held3710Will be there3690-3745Running between them. On Monday night, the futures market opened slightly higher than expected3699, stopped falling and rebounded slightly, returning to3700Above the integer level, close at3710Compared to the daily closing price3692Closing Up18A point, but still lower than the settlement price21Points or0.56%.


　　周一螺纹钢现货市场情况，早盘多地市场小幅松动，盘中期螺震荡下跌，市场交投情绪出现变化，价格二次甚至三次调整。全国除东北整体持稳外，其余区域均有不同程度的下跌，其中华东跌幅最大，华北跌幅最小。但成交增量，表明当前市场情况并不悲观，短期价格的走势是在提前消化市场对税改政策的预期，《我的钢铁网》认为，当前现货涨跌空间均有限。当日钢坯跌10Yuan, current factory price including tax3450element/Ton. On weekends, the quotation for ordinary carbon billets in Tangshan area has been raised10Yuan.


　　昨天又有机构炒作唐山限产：唐山市决定自2019year3month25day8Until now3month27day8During the strict implementation of staggered production in autumn and winter3On the basis of the air pollution prevention and control measures in the second half of the month, further strengthened control measures were taken, but the control lasted only three days and the market did not hype up. At the same time, the State Council Work Safety Committee has arranged for a comprehensive investigation and rectification of safety hazards in hazardous chemicals. Organize a comprehensive investigation and mapping of all enterprises involved in nitrification reaction process equipment, production, and storage of nitrites, immediately carry out safety special governance, conduct risk assessments of all chemical industrial parks, and promptly eliminate major hidden dangers. The increasingly strict safety inspections and environmental production restrictions will eventually be reflected in the market.


　　期螺主力1905Yesterday fell below40Supported by the daily moving average, based on technical analysis, last night's night market futures were expected to experience an inertia decline, but last night's night market futures opened high at3699Then climb up3700The upper level fluctuated and did not fall back again. Yesterday's daily closing price was below. Last night before the night trading session, the author suggested: "There is a phenomenon worth noting, after today's closing, there are70%Analysts believe that the futures market will continue to decline significantly, and based on past experience, the market is often bearish or bullish70%However, its disk operation is exactly the opposite.


　　另外futures近日连续下跌，跌幅扩大，期、现价差大幅扩张，期货贴水的扩大，对于临近交割的期螺也有修复的要求。所以昨晚夜盘期螺没有继续下跌。


Today1905rb操作建议：估计期螺1905会开在3710Nearby, look up3745短压力，下看3690的短支撑。今日可在回探3690获支撑时择低接短多，上抽3745承压时择高平多反手入短空。入单后设止损15Points.


　　二、焦炭：1905j今日会开在1972附近，会在1960-2000区间运行。周一夜盘期焦震荡整理，收低12Points or0.60%, Closing1971.5。


　　周一焦炭现货市场稳中偏弱，河钢集团焦炭采购价下调100element/吨，焦炭第二轮提降基本落地，多数焦企已处盈亏边界。钢厂焦炭库存处于中高位水平，近期多按需采购为主，部分钢厂仍有意向继续打压焦价，本周河北强化管控收尾，钢厂陆续准备复产，短期需求有回升趋势；贸易商仍多持观望状态，港口库存高位，贸易资源出货压力较大，综合衡量，预计短期焦炭现货持稳运行。


　　期焦昨日日盘受期螺大幅下跌拖累，虽一度翻红，但最终还是小幅收低，相对比较抗跌。山西从2019year3Mid month to9月底，在全省开展焦化行业专项检查整治行动，对期焦仍构成支撑。昨晚夜盘期焦窄幅整理，估计今日日盘期焦会延续震荡盘稳为主。


　　今日期焦1905j操作建议：估计1905期焦会开于1972附近，探低会在1960获得短支撑，抽高2000会有短压力。今日05j可在回探1960附近获得支撑时择低接短多，抽高2000承压时择高平多反手短空。短线设损15Points.


　　三、焦煤：1905jm今日会开在1232附近，会在1225-1250区间运行。周一夜盘期焦煤震荡整理，收在日盘收盘价附近，收高7.5Points or0.61%, Closing1231.5。


　　周一焦煤现货市场弱稳运行。本周受下游市场传导影响，山西地区部分煤种有继续下行预期。焦煤结构性差异依然存在：临汾、长治及运城等地区低硫焦煤已接到下游通知降价，或有继续回调计划，继续让利焦化；晋中地区多数洗煤厂，因煤矿复产较少，开工率较低，原煤供应相对不足，库存持低位，成本较高，虽收到下游焦化压价，利润压缩，但挺价意愿较强，预计短期中硫焦煤价格不会大幅下调；灵石地区部分煤矿高硫肥煤近日有降价打算，价格或将继续回落；而吕梁地区高硫主焦资源依旧紧张，预计短期内没有降价预期。


　　期焦煤昨日表现相对抗跌，山西举行焦化行业专项检查行动仍构成支撑，昨晚夜盘期焦煤仍震荡盘整，估计今日日盘期焦煤会继续震荡盘稳。


　　今日日盘01jmOperation suggestions:1905jm今日日盘会开于1232，探低会在1225附近有支撑，抽高1250会有短压力。今日05jm可在回落1225附近获得支撑时择低接短多，抽高1250承压时择高平多反手入短空。短线设损10Points.


　　四、橡胶：1905ru今日日盘会在11450-11650区间运行。会开在11520附近，探低会在11450获短支撑，上看11650的短压。周一夜盘期胶震荡整理，收低150Points or1.29%, Closing11505。


　　据报道，由于泰国将举行2014年军事政变以来的首次大选，泰国或将推迟执行出口削减计划项目启动时间至5month20日。天然橡胶供需格局依旧偏弱，在终端需求未有改善的情况下，预计沪胶震荡整理为主。


　　今日建议作如下操作：1905ru预估会开在11520附近，向上看11650短压，向下看11450的短支撑。今日日盘可在抽高11650承压时择高入短空，回探11450附近获支撑时择低平空反手接短多。记住入单后设置60点止损。

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