兴业投资：破60Yes!原油上行趋势还会延续吗?

兴业投资：破60Yes!crude oil上行趋势还会延续吗?
2019year3month21day
国际原油周三早盘小幅回落整固近期涨幅，随后受美国原油库存意外大降及美联储鸽派立场导致美元全线下挫的支持，再创四个多月来新高。截止收盘，美国WTIcrude oil5monthfuturesIncome increase1.13USD, or1.92%Report60.08dollar/Bucket, highest reach60.26dollar/Bucket, lowest drop to58.55dollar/bucket;Brent crude oil5Monthly futures up0.64USD, or0.95%Report68.29dollar/Bucket, highest touch in tray68.54dollar/Bucket, lowest drop to67.17dollar/Bucket.
据路透社报道，阿联酋能源部长Suhail Al Mazroui在电话会议中表示，阿联酋致力于实现其OPEC+的减产任务;since2018年第四季度以来，石油供应一直在增加;只要石油供应过剩持续，欧佩克就无法结束减产;预计欧佩克将在6月份与非欧佩克国家敲定长期合作宪章;NOPEC法案将影响石油市场的再平衡和美国页岩气生产商。
全球经济增长担忧，以及对持续供应过剩的担忧，正在给油市带来不利因素。周三公布的一项调查显示，受到美中贸易争端的拖累，亚洲商业信心在第一季度接近三年低位，进一步拖累了已在走下坡路的全球经济。受此影响油价一度受挫，创两日低点。
中美贸易谈判相互之间仍缺乏足够的信任。彭博社昨日报道称，特朗普政府担心中国可能会违背某些贸易让步。而中国谈判代表担心，即使达成协议，美国可能也不会取消制裁。据路透社报道，特朗普总统周三警告称，美国对中国商品征收的关税可能会持续“相当长一段时间”，甚至在达成一项确保北京遵守任何贸易协定的协议之后。
US Energy Information Administration(EIA)The latest data shows that as of3month15During the current week, US crude oil inventories unexpectedly decreased958.910000 barrels to4.395Billion barrels, creating2018year7month13Day and Week(36week)以来最大单周降幅，市场预期增加30.9万桶。精炼油库存减少412.7Ten thousand barrels, creating2018year12month21Day and Week(13week)以来最大单周降幅，市场预期减少109.4Ten thousand barrels. Reduced gasoline inventory458.7Ten thousand barrels, continuous5Weekly decline recorded, market expectations reduced241.4Ten thousand barrels. In addition, domestic crude oil production in the United States increased last week1010000 barrels to121010000 barrels/日，重回纪录高位。
USD Index
美元指数周三早盘小幅反弹至96.535日内高点后回撤，纽约午盘后，美联储在3月份的货币政策会议上巩固了其鸽派观点，而鲍威尔在新闻发布会上的论调也鸽派，美元指数受此拖累扩大跌势至95.702的三周低点，随后略有回升，收于95.828Horizontal.
美联储在今年第二次FOMC会议上，延续了1月令人意外的“鸽派转向”，宣布了一系列密集、关键的货币政策决定，包括今年预期不会加息、明年加息一次，以及9月末正式结束缩表等。美联储还下调了对今明两年的经济增速预期，下调了未来三年的名义通胀指引。
美联储主席鲍威尔在随后的新闻发布会上也是鸽声嘹亮。鲍威尔表示，可能比政策声明表述的更早结束资产负债表，预计到今年年底，资产负债表将占GDPof17%Left and right, approximately3.5万亿美元。而在回答有关可能降息的问题时，鲍威尔说，利率可能会有这样或那样的变化。数据目前没有发出利率政策应该向哪个方向移动的信号。他打开了降息的大门。这比点阵图要更为鸽派，点阵图显示在2020年加息一次。
technical analysis
American crude oil
Daily chart: Poly+channel spreads, oil prices closely follow the upward trend;14Daily moving average and20日均线适度上扬;随机指标企稳于超买区。
4Hour chart: Poly+channel rises, oil prices follow the upward trend;14Mean Square and20Bullish moving average;随机指标在超买区试图下行;预示油价可能震荡走高。
1Hour chart: Poly+channel rises, oil prices develop between the upper and middle tracks;14Hourly moving average and20Hourly moving average bullish;The random indicator has declined from the overbought area.
Overview: It is expected that oil prices will decrease within the next few days58.55-61.25区间内震荡走高，可尝试逢低买进。上方阻力关注去年11month9Daily high point60.75Breakthrough will be explored11month12Daily high point61.25;And the following supports attention3month20Daily low point58.55Falling below will lead to exploration3month18日低点附近的58.00Pass, then3month15Daily low point57.75and3month13Daily low point57.00。
Brent crude oil
日图：保利加通道略微扩散，油价紧随上轨发展;14Daily moving average and20日均线略微看涨;Random indicators enter the overbought zone.
4小时图：保利加通道适度上扬，油价跟随上轨发展;14Mean Square and20Bullish moving average;随机指标在超买区持平;预示油价可能震荡走高。
1Hour chart: Poly Plus channel rising, oil prices approaching the upper track development;14Hourly moving average and20The upward slope of the hourly moving average is becoming steeper;随机指标在超买区持平。
Overview: It is expected that oil prices will decrease within the next few days67.15-69.65间内震荡，可尝试高抛低吸。上方阻力关注去年11month12Daily low point68.85，突破将上探去年11month13Daily low point69.65，然后是去年11month9Daily high point70.95;And the following supports attention3month20Daily low point67.15Falling below will lead to exploration3month18Daily low point66.65And then3month15Daily low point66.10, and3month11Daily low point65.60and3month5Daily low point65.00。
Follow on Thursday:
Number of weekly unemployment benefit applicants in the United States
U.S.A3Monthly Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index