Jinjiwo: Analysis2019New Trends in Idle Money Management

Looking Back2018In the year, stock funds were completely wiped out. Although some stock foundations still performed well in the first half of the year, all profits were taken back due to the subsequent stock market crash. In contrast, the bond market is exceptionally prosperous. Among them, short-term bond funds, relying on the tool attribute of "cash wealth management substitution", have an overall scale of2017At the beginning of the year30About 100 million, exceeding by the end of the year500Billion yuan, with scale growth exceeding15Times.

In fact, after delving deeper into the reasons behind the popularity of short-term bond funds, Jinjiwo believes that it is still because of the decrease in returns on commodity funds that short-term bond funds have become the standard configuration for investors to manage their idle money. The main reason for the explosive growth of short-term bond funds this time is not the rise in bond prices, but rather the re allocation of stable income products by investors during the launch of the new asset management regulations.


After all, if bond prices rise, the real beneficiaries should not be long-term bond funds, not short-term bond funds. After all, the main beneficiaries of bond price increases are not short-term bonds, but long-term bonds. And currently, short-term bond funds are about500The scale of one billion yuan and its proximity30Trillion yuan in financial management8Compared to a trillion dollar monetary fund, it is simply insignificant.


Therefore, the popularity of short-term bond funds in this round is not a result of "investment models" caused by market wide chasing of gains, but rather the result of residents reallocating stable assets. Under this trend, it is expected that the size of short-term bond funds still has a high probability of increasing. Below, Jinjiwo will provide an in-depth analysis of the benefits and risks for everyone.


At present, the main income of short-term bond funds comes from three parts: coupon+lever+Capital gains. According to different credit bond yields, most of them are currently in the3.5%-4.2%Between them, this is the fundamental source of income for short-term bonds. Of course, short-term bond funds can still have a certain level of leverage, and the current leverage limit is140%. Generally speaking, while the fundamental trend remains positive, short-term bond funds tend to have extreme leverage.


In terms of capital gains, based on the current situation2019The probability of the bond market improving in the first half of the year is high, and the downward space may depend on both internal and external factors. Internally, it mainly depends on the success of the "broad credit" orientation, and externally, it mainly depends on the degree of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy shift.


As for risk, the primary pursuit of ordinary investors in financial management is stability, rather than pursuing higher investment returns. From the historical performance of short-term bond funds, the historical return curve of this type of fund is relatively stable, which is in line with the investment needs of ordinary investors on the basis of superimposed liquidity.