Industrial Investment: Short positions occupy the main field Crude oil will still struggle to emerge in the short term

Industrial Investment: Short positions occupy the main field crude oilIn the short term, it will still be difficult to have a bright future
2018year12month21day
On Thursday, international crude oil fell again, and even with a significant depreciation of the US dollar, it failed to stop the decline and rebound, mainly because the entire market was filled with strong short selling sentiment. No matter how Saudi Arabia expresses its intention to expand production cuts, the market seems to take it for granted. Concerns about oversupply continue to spread and increase the downward space for oil prices, making it an opportunity for bears to enter every time oil prices rebound. As of closing, United StatesWTI 2Monthly crude oilfuturesDecline from the previous day2.15%Report collection46.34dollar/Bucket, touching the highest point in the plate47.49dollar/Bucket, lowest drop to45.6646.32dollar/bucket;Brent2Monthly crude oil futures decline3.15%, receiving reports54.69dollar/Bucket, hit a high point at one point during trading56.72dollar/Bucket, lowest drop to54.26dollar/Bucket.
According to a foreign media report, the current oil price has dropped to a dangerous level. expectOPECOnly Kuwait may be able to hold out until next year's policy meeting among member states, as even the giants Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Iran will need higher oil prices to maintain their fiscal budgets. Countries such as Libya, Venezuela, and Nigeria, which have been plagued by supply disruptions, will also face fiscal deficits. stayHYCMIndustrial Investment(britain)Analysts believe that there should be no chance for oil prices to rebound before the end of the year, only whenOPECAfter truly implementing the production reduction agreement. According to Reuters,OPECWe are planning to publish a table detailing each member country and non member statesOPECThe voluntary reduction of production quotas by major oil producing countries is attempting to increase efforts to prevent further decline in oil prices. Expected by the end of this weekOPECThis form will be published.
Speaking of reducing production, Saudi Arabia has actually worked quite hard. In a letter,OPECSecretary General Barkin praised Saudi Arabia, stating that its production reduction has now been higher than at the beginning of this monthOPECThe scale specified in the production reduction agreement reached. However, hereHYCMIndustrial Investment(britain)Analysts still need to remind everyone that due to the production reduction effect taking some time to show, crude oil will continue its current decline in the short term.
USD Index
Just as the Federal Reserve decided to raise the target range of the federal funds rate25Bps to2.25-2.50%Later, Gulf countries such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Bahrain, which implemented a policy of pegging to the US dollar, also announced interest rate hikes25One basis point. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority has also raised the discount window basic interest rate25Bps to2.75%. However, on Thursday, the US dollar did not continue its frenzy with interest rate hikes, but instead staged a sharp decline along with the US stock market, as Federal Reserve Chairman Powell expressed at a press conference that he would continue to maintain his existing balance sheet reduction plan, and the Speaker of the US House of Representatives announced that Trump would not sign a temporary government funding resolution, further raising concerns in the market that the government would soon shut down. The US dollar index has been under pressure since the opening of the Asian market, and as of the close, the US dollar index has declined compared to the previous day0.74%Report collection96.311The highest has soared to97.003Lowest drop to96.130. The Big Three in the United Statesstock market indexContinuing to decline, as of closing, the Dow Jones closed lower464.06Point, drop1.99%Report22859.60Point, create the most recent14Month closing low;S&P500Index closed down39.55Point, drop1.58%Report2467.41spot;Nasdaq closed lower108.42Point, drop1.63%Report6528.41Point, compared to8The historical closing high set in the month has fallen nearly19.5%. Tonight, a large number of important data will be released in the United States, including the third quarterGDPAnd the personal consumption expenditure data that the Federal Reserve highly values. Due to the Federal Reserve's suggestion the day before that it will be more cautious about raising interest rates next year, the future direction will depend on data. Therefore, any unexpected data will deepen investors' concerns about the future US economy, thereby suppressing the US dollar.
technical analysis
American crude oil
Daily chart:MA14andMA20Continuing to lean downwards, the Poly Plus channel is gradually opening up, and the slow random indicator is hovering in the oversold area.
4Hourly chart: The downward slope of the moving average slows down, while the slow random indicator is in the middle of the range, with a slight tendency to rebound.
1Hour chart: Since the opening of the Asian market, oil prices have attempted to rebound, but the upward trend has been suppressed by resistance, and the slow random indicator has reversed from the overbought area.
Summary: It is expected that crude oil will continue to fluctuate downward within the day, and even if it rises, the expected space is relatively limited. We still lean towards short selling at high points, with initial resistance at47.50Nearby, then48.40If you touch these positions in the market and fail, you can short them.
Brent crude oil
Daily chart: The moving average crosses and leans towards bearish, while the slow random indicator continues to oversold. Overall, the technical signal continues to lean towards bearish sentiment.
4Hour chart: The moving average is bearish, but the downward slope has significantly slowed down;The slow random indicator continues to hover in the oversold area, indicating a downward trend in the short term.
1Hour chart: Oil prices attempt to rise since the opening of the Asian market, but are hindered byMA14andMA20;Slow random indicators are bullish, with inconsistent signals indicating that the volatile market will continue.
Summary: It is expected that oil prices will start to decline again after a brief period of volatility within the day. We continue to look for opportunities to short at high points, with initial resistance at56.00And then58.00Nearby. Falling below the previous low54.26Expected54The checkpoint will be breached and fall to53.25Near.
Follow on Friday:
Germany1monthGfKConsumer confidence index
France11monthPPI/Q3GDPFinal value
britain11Monthly net borrowing from public sector/Q3GDPFinal value/Current account
Canada10monthGDP/Retail sales
US Q3 ActualGDPFinal value/Personal consumption expenditure prices
U.S.A11Initial value of monthly durable goods orders/12Final Value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index for the Month
eurozone12Initial value of monthly consumer confidence index