【12/04】汇评：G20传佳音美联储“鸽声”不断美元疲乏，黄金收复1230关口或迎来春天

Yesterday's review


      G20峰会传来中美贸易摩擦缓和的信息，以及美联储官员释放鸽派信号，美元遭受打击，goldBreach1230关口后继续震荡上行，触及逾三周高点1234.94。晚间美联储副主席克拉里达发表讲话，称美联储可以接受通胀高于2%，同时称美联储政策框架运作良好。随后美联储理事夸尔斯也表示，中性利率并不是一个非常精确的概念，目前正在接近中性利率区间的底部。其鸽派的言论令美元短线下跌，黄金闻讯短线涨近3美元。美联储理事布雷纳德则称，通胀水平在美联储2%的目标附近。
      Regarding the Euro:亚盘时段，受G20峰会利好的影响，欧元/美元跳空高开后震荡上行。欧盘时段，欧元区11Monthly manufacturing industryPMIFinal value recorded51.8，差于预期值51.5，已连续第三个月下滑，自2016year8月以来的最低水平，进一步证明欧元区经济增长已过高峰，当前欧元/美元短线下跌。随后美联储克拉里达和夸尔斯两位官员都发表了鸽派言论，美元短线下跌，欧元/The US dollar is rising in the short term. During the US trading session, the United States11monthISMmanufacturingPMIRecorded59.3, better than expected57.5，已走出半年低谷，同时间段，美国10月营建支出月率录得-0.1%，大幅差于预期值0.3%, Continuous3个月下降，当前美元短线下跌，欧元/美元上涨。

Today's analysis

(Europe and AmericaM30chart)

Regarding the Euro:


      亚市早盘开盘，欧元/美元小幅攀升，目前在1.1365附近震荡。技术上，今日可逢低做多，下方支撑位1.1334，若突破下方支撑位时，可待回调至区间内逢高放空。今日经济数据较为清淡，主要关注欧元区欧元区10monthPPI月率，预期值0.4%差于前值0.5%，若公布值较差，则利空欧元提振美元。另外还需重点关注美联储三把手威廉姆斯的讲话，在美联储主席鲍威尔听证会遭取消的背景下，威廉姆斯的讲话将受到格外关注。威廉姆斯将会讨论就业和劳动力问题，这在非农前夕无疑是一个重要的参考指标，如果讲话偏鹰，可能会带动美元短线的反弹。

In terms of gold:


      亚市早盘开盘，现货黄金小幅拉升，目前在1234.80附近震荡。G20会议后的市场情绪显著改善，大宗商品反弹力度较强，美元也在走弱，这些都利好金价；技术面，金价顶破了1230.20附近阻力，短线看涨信号有所增强，有望延续涨势。Technically,今日可逢低做多，目前上方压力位1237, lower support position1230。今日需关注国际贸易紧张局势缓和的影响发酵情况，以及美联储三把手威廉姆斯的讲话。

Today's focus on data:


澳洲联储公布利率决议及政策声明
Bank of England Governor Carney delivers a speech
eurozone10monthPPIMonthly rate
美联储官员威廉姆斯发表讲话

Disclaimers:


This analysis and trading strategy objectively describe the current market trend. Investors need to strictly follow the principles of following the trend, reducing positions, and stopping losses! We cannot solely rely on trading strategies as the basis for placing orders, this is for reference only!
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