White Dust Xiao:11.23The consolidation of high gold prices may pose downside risks Analysis of the Future Trend of Gold

White Dust Xiao：11.23goldHigh level consolidation may pose downside risks Analysis of the Future Trend of Gold



In real life, it is understandable for everyone to compare their education to their income, but in transactions, one must not have a mentality of comparison. You always see the results that some people will achieve in trading, and then feel that their trading performance is too poor to catch up. But once the mentality collapses, it is likely to bring greater losses, and you may not be aware of the losses behind those who have achieved results. For a period of time, individuals also fell into such emotions, which led to serious losses. Therefore, this is why I am no longer paying attention to anyone else's thinking analysis and trading situation. Using a chicken soup sentence to do well is the most crucial thing.

The reason why gold continued to strengthen on the previous trading day was mainly due to the continued decline of the US dollar. The sustained retreat and weakening of the US dollar, on the one hand, is due to the market questioning the Fed's interest rate hike cycle, and even speculating2019The annual interest rate hike cycle is suspended. On the other hand, it was dragged down by the significant rise in the pound.

Thursday（11month22Positive news has emerged from Brexit, with the UK and the EU officially issuing a draft declaration on their future relationship after Brexit, which has boosted the short-term surge of the pound100Point, highest touch1.2925. Subsequently, foreign media reported that the European Union and the United Kingdom have expressed different opinions on the Gibraltar issue, with the pound exceeding the limit in just one minute100Point, instantly broken1.28Gateway. However, the overall strength of the pound continued to rise, which weighed on the US dollar and supported gold.

Next, we need to pay attention to whether there will be internal pressure on Theresa in the UK·Mei expressed opposition to the draft reached, and both the United States and Japan were closed due to holidays on this trading day, greatly reducing market liquidity. However, it is necessary to be vigilant that low liquidity can amplify market volatility several times. In addition, the market focus has shifted to Saturday（11month24Talks between the UK and the European Union and Sunday（11month25The summit of Japan.

Gold trend analysis:

Due to the early closure of the Thanksgiving market in the United States, gold fluctuated less the next day and only remained stable5The range of the US dollar fluctuates, and the market continues to be closed early in the day. It is expected that there will also be no major fluctuations in the gold trend; In terms of trend, gold fluctuated and closed positive the next day, with prices stabilizing1225The top bulls still dominate, but for1230The suppression of resistance on the front line is still the key to whether bulls can truly break through the upper limit, and the daily line has bottomed out since last week1196After rebounding, there was a good rebound trend, but since this week, the bullish impact has not been strong. Although the daily low has been continuously moving up, the short-term upward trend1230The suppression of resistance causes the bullish potential of gold to weaken, and in the short term1230Continue to be under pressure and be cautious of bearish positions falling back.

On the technical side, gold recorded a small positive line the next day, but the price approached the resistance level and was a bit weak. Although the daily line went up this week, it actually showed a triangular oscillation. The key to breaking the triangular oscillation will depend on the breakthrough of horizontal resistance or support. The daily line's Bollinger belt runs flat, and in the short termKBreakthrough above the stabilizing trajectory, short-term moving average up, dailyKStand firmMA120Above the moving average,MA5Upper dressingMA120And the short line1225Provide support, this position is also an important short-term support, and if you fall below this position within the day, you will see a correction; Four hours of high oscillation, with obvious resistance suppression above the short line. It is recommended to overestimate and lower the slag during daily operations, and not blindly pursue more.

Outlook for the Future of Gold:

The uncertainty surrounding Brexit and Trump's threatening remarks have left the market in a safe haven mood, which provides support for gold prices. At the same time, the weakening of the US dollar has also kept gold prices strong. In addition, there are no signs of easing the budget dispute between Italy and the European Union, which also enhances the attractiveness of gold as a safe haven asset. Therefore, the outlook for the future of gold is optimistic.

The key upward target for gold is located in1238.30dollar/Ounces, once they break through this level, are expected to further rise towards1262.51dollar/Ounces. On the downside, the key support for gold lies in1208.40dollar/Ounces, if they fall below, they may return to a bearish trend.

Any sustained upward trend in gold may be due to1233dollar/The ounce level is blocked, and if it breaks through, further upward retesting will be conducted3Half month high1243dollar/Ounce area.

On the downside, gold's initial support lies in1225/24dollar/Ounces, if it falls below, it will accelerate back to1218dollar/Ounce level.

Trading with the trend and placing orders against the trend:

Having a good trading philosophy can ensure our continuous profitability and continuously improve our trading philosophy during trading.

In the investment trading market, the trend trading concept is highly sought after by many people. The so-called trend trading is to follow the trend of the market to trade, that is, to trade with the trend, firmly believe that trend traders only long in the upward trend and only short in the downward trend. Countertrend traders are those who like to find the bottom and touch the top. When the market rises for a period of time, they like to speculate about the arrival of the top and short it; After a period of decline, I like to look for the bottom and go long. Which trading method is better?

Many people would say that it's better to take advantage of the situation and make orders, but it's trueDust XiaoI also agree that trading with the trend should be the main approach, but often many people, although they say they are trend traders, still cannot catch the trend. There are two ways to make trends. One is to hold orders. When the market is judged to be short or long based on the fundamentals, patiently hold the orders after making them. By continuously adjusting the stop loss position to reduce risk and ensure returns, specific holding methods are usedWhite Dust XiaoI have shared with you before that the advantage of this method is that you can enjoy the returns of the big band, but many people often cannot hold their positions firmly and are often scared away by small rebounds in the big trend and small bands. This method is suitable for very patient people, and indeed needs to be when the market comes. The second method is to follow the trend and also follow the band. During this process, you can short every high and close the position at the support level, waiting for a rebound before shorting. The downside of this approach is that often you don't knowWhat is the 'high' in 'short selling on high'? How high is the rebound and when is it appropriate to short?

The so-called counter trend order is when the trend falls, you go long and grab a rebound; Or when you go up, you can go short and make a correction. The disadvantage of this method of placing orders is that it often involves taking on greater risks to obtain fewer returns. Therefore, in order to place orders in this way, stop losses must be set to achieve controllable risks. Another advantage of a counter trend order is that it can find a good entry point for the trend order, which is also known as reaching the top and bottom. If the market quickly reverses after a wave of trends, the order made against the trend is likely to become the next trend's favorable order, and the entry point will also be good. In fact, this idea is also applied in the pyramid position building method, and the sweeping monk will discuss it with everyone later.
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For newcomers to the gold market,White Dust XiaoI would like to remind everyone to follow the trend, prioritize trading with the trend, and not easily make counter trend orders, because beginners do not know how to control risks, and the risks of counter trend are much greater than those of counter trend. For those who are accustomed to thinking against the trend and want to reboundWhite Dust XiaoI would like to remind such investors that they must set a stop loss and also learn to test their positions. When making orders against the trend, they must be light and dare to increase their positions when a rebound is confirmed
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Full guidance time: early8：00In the early morning of the next day2：00
Comprehensive guidance teacher: Bai Chenxiao analysis team
writing/White Dust Xiao