Yu Qi's Discussion on Gold:10.25黄金多头强势反弹收复失地，黄金今日走势操作附黄金解套

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Yu Qi's Discussion on Gold:10.25gold多头强势反弹收复失地，黄金今日走势操作附黄金解套




消息面：现货黄金周三（10month24日）温和下跌，美市盘中最低下探至1225.10dollar/盎司，金价失守1230关口，短线震荡。美元周三强势反弹，升至九周高位。美元指数盘中最高触及96.54，对黄金构成较大压力。日内公布的美国9月新屋销售销售年化55.3Ten thousand households, creating2016year12月以来新低，低于预期62.5万户和前值58.5万户，新屋销售已环比连降四个月。

目前地缘政治问题仍困扰市场，包括中美贸易争端以及沙特记者遇害事件造成的美国与沙特的紧张关系，以及意大利就预算案对欧盟的抵抗，周三欧盟再一次否决了意大利的预算草案。所有这些因素都推动世界股市和油价下挫，同时也推动了避险资产如黄金，美国债券和美元的上涨。




因此，黄金目前仍受地缘政治危机的支撑，但由于近期上涨累积了一定的获利盘，市场获利回吐导致的下修属正常的调整。目前市场等待周四的欧洲央行的货币政策会议。预计欧盟货币政策不会发生变化，但欧洲央行行长德拉基的新闻发布会可以提供未来货币政策的线索。此外，德拉基可能就意大利新政府与欧盟之间的分歧进行评论。




由于地缘政治问题促使市场规避风险并加速向安全资产转移，黄金从冲破1215就牛市就已经开始运转。黄金本周有可能发挥强势作用，因为冒险情绪会让投资者急于寻求任何形式的安全。目前看来美指虽然强势攀升，但是在英镑和欧元走强的基础上，美指依旧承受巨大压力，因此黄金或许会更受到市场避险情绪的热捧。至少在美联储12月再次加息之前，黄金会持续上涨节奏。盘面上看，大周期级别，虽然美指呈现多头走势，但是伴随着K线的多次收阴，多头被一再削弱，这也削减了市场持续看好美元的信心。

黄金走势分析：从黄金日线上来看，周二金价大幅走高，录得大实体阳线形态，目前MACDThe indicator double line is still in the golden cross process, and the moving average cluster is in a bullish arrangement. Multiple parties are expected to start rising again, but short-term domestic demand is concernedMA5Supporting effect. The gold price, which rose sharply in the European session on Tuesday, laid the foundation for a day of gains, but later fell back slightly. However, most of the gains have been well preserved, although at this stageMACDThe indicator double line is still in the golden cross process, butKDJThere are signs of a dead cross in the high three line bond, and currently the gold price has broken through the high without the indicator following. There is a risk of divergence from the top in the future market and caution is needed.




4小时上，黄金趋势偏向多头，MACDGolden fork,KDJ金叉，不过信号都比较弱，K线高位出现吞没看空，需要提防短线见顶风险，关注布林线中轨1225附近支撑，若失守该位置，则金价可能会进一步试探布林线下轨1218.29附近支撑。不过1226.75附近也存在一些支撑，如果金价再次顶破布林线上轨1235.20附近阻力，则削弱K线的吞没看空信号，金价有望重拾涨势；隔夜高点阻力在1239.80附近，若进一步上破，则打开新的上涨空间。




小时线来看，黄金高位震荡；金价初步顶破1219-1225The oscillation area has been identified and completed1225Confirmation of nearby support withdrawal,KDJ也重新结成金叉，MACD绿色柱萎缩，金价也受到布林线下轨的支撑，如再次站稳1230有望重拾涨势，上方关注布林线上轨1238附近阻力，若升破该位置，则有望打开新的上涨通道。综合来看，本周全球股市下跌，提升了黄金的避险需求，金价初步站在100Above the daily moving average, bullish signals have also increased and are expected to break through upwards; Moreover, the market's expectations for durable goods order data in the United States are quite pessimistic,GDP数据也可能会差于前值，这些都有望帮助金价上涨，不过也需要留意美联储官员偏鹰派讲话的利空影响。综合来看，今日操作思路上玉琪论金个人建议以回调做多为主，反弹高空为辅，上方重点关注1240-1242One line of resistance, pay attention below1225-1227Frontline support. Add author Yuqi LunjinweixinNumber（zyq1970622）Daily market analysis, hedging strategies, and medium to long term guidance are all included. Welcome like-minded people to come and discuss!




gold10.25Operation suggestions:1#Lower callback to1225-1227Long on the front line, stop loss4US dollars, look at the target1236-1238First line, break through and continue to hold;




2#Above not broken1240-1242Short on the front line, stop loss4US dollars, look at the target1232-1230frontline;

crude oil走势分析：原油周三盘中一度跳升近2%，尽管美国原油和库欣库存继续攀升，但美国汽油和精炼油库存大幅下降抵消了库存报告的利空影响，不过美元反弹一定程度上限制了油价的上行空间。美国WTIcrude oilfuturesThe highest price hit during the trading session67.72dollar/Barrel, Brent crude oil futures hit their highest intraday price77.56dollar/桶。虽然油价反弹，但部分分析师指出，由于沙特承诺将进一步增产，相信多头信心已经受挫。同时全球风险情绪再遭股市下跌的冲击，这也将拖累原油等风险资产的价格表现。尽管如此，日内公布的美国原油库存报告为油价带来些许支撑。虽然EIA数据显示，上周美国原油库存大增约635万桶，但小于稍早API公布的增幅，同时美国精炼油和汽油库存大幅下降，基本抵消了市场的忧虑情绪。




原油本周再次破位大跌，盘面刷新上周2次测试的低点68.4后深夜一度跌至65.7位置，单日下跌幅度之大再次让市场瞠目结舌，日线报收一根实体大阴线。k线目前运行在布林带中下轨区间震荡下行。日线上来看，美国原油目前已经跌穿了61.8%回撤位的支撑，这意味着自8month16日以来的上升趋势已经终结，油价大跌因美国API原油库存大增。油价在失守61.8%回撤位之后再度跌穿了云层的支撑，这也加剧了油价的看跌情绪。技术指标走势极为疲软，且云图下行云走势疲软，这也进一步巩固了油价的看跌趋势。4小时上，油价短线走势较为疲软，MA均线呈空头排列趋势，且云图下行云走势较为疲软，这或暗示油价短线趋势继续看跌。不过，投资者需注意的是，KD指标目前已经跌至超卖水平，且有温和反弹的趋势，这或暗示油价在进一步下跌之前或温和反弹。综合来看，今日操作思路上玉琪论金个人建议以反弹高空为主，回调做多为辅，上方重点关注67.2-67One line of resistance, pay attention below65.8-65.6Frontline support. For specific solutions and operational strategies, please refer to the author Gong Zhanghao: Yu Qi discusses gold.



Message:What we do belongs to venture capital,If risks are not properly controlled,Always losing money,Just blindly investing funds,That would lose the significance of investing!Investment relies not on luck,But rather accurately judge the market trend,Calm down and face the ups and downs of the market,Emotions never dance with gains or losses. The risk is not scary,What's scary is that,Let risk get out of control!You are still troubled by countless stop losses?Still feeling frustrated about going in the opposite direction when making a single order?Still running away hastily for a small profit?Please entrust professional matters to professionals,Endless profits come from cooperation!




Comprehensive guidance time:early7:00In the early morning of the next day2:00




Comprehensive guidance teacher:Yuqi's Gold Analysis Team




writing/Yu Qi's Discussion on Gold(WeChat:zyq1970622,official account:Yu Qi's Discussion on Gold)