9.18晚评：黄金原油震荡当中如何把握，看准压力防守支撑

　　preface


　　你的命里不是缺少财富，而是缺少贵人为你指点迷津。千里马常有，而伯乐不常有，人生最快意的三件事莫过于：棋逢对手，酒逢知己，将遇良才！投资路上，本人愿为你指点迷津，更愿做你的真心朋友。

　　goldreal-time info


Spot gold Monday（9month17Japan saw a significant rebound, with gold prices hitting intraday lows1192.71dollar/After an ounce, it rebounded, reaching its highest point in the US market1204.74dollar/Ounces, amplitude exceeding10The rise of the US dollar and gold is mainly supported by the decline of the US dollar. As of the close of the market, the futures closed up0.65%Report1206.1dollar/ounce; Futures and bank gains0.96%Report14.215dollar/ounce.


The rise of gold on Monday was mainly due to the decline of the US dollar. On Monday, the risk sentiment of the market decreased, which was more favorable for the safe haven assets. And the United States announced recently9The manufacturing index of the New York Fed for the month is19, lower than the previous value25.6And expectations23, creating5The new low of last month is unfavorable for the US dollar.


The turmoil in emerging markets continues to ferment. Türkiye's central bank raised interest rates sharply last week625The Türkiye lira fell sharply again on Monday after the market was shocked by the basis points and the lira rebounded. At the same time, the political situation in Türkiye has become tense again. Reuters reported that Erdogan asked Türkiye's government to carefully review a large local bankIsbankThe board of directors.


A report released by Commerzbank on Monday stated that India is the world's second largest consumer of gold, with demand for gold increasing8The month has rebounded, but it may weaken again this month. Analysts pointed out that the Indian Ministry of Finance reported that the country8The monthly import of gold has significantly increased. Commerzbank AG stated that,8Local prices fell to8The low point in the past six months has shown an advantage in replenishing inventory. However, due to the rebound in prices, India's demand seems to be faltering again.


In addition, according to Reuters citing local media, India may impose import tariffs on gold. Indian Ministry of Finance officials have stated that import taxes may be imposed on steel, finished steel, furniture, fruits, and electronic products. In addition, consider increasing the import tax on gold. If import taxes increase, it will increase the risk of gold smuggling.


Although some analysts believe that gold will rise, their views on the silver market are not optimistic.CFTCThe report shows that in theComexsilverfuturesIn the middle, speculative long positions have decreased2525Hand to53034Hand contract. Meanwhile, short positions have decreased3373Hand to101109Hand contract. The headroom of silver is basically unchanged from the previous week's48075Hand contract. During the investigation, the silver price fell to2016The lowest point since the beginning of the year. Meanwhile, gold-The silver ratio has reached20The highest level in many years.


Gold Market Analysis


The gold price showed a unilateral upward trend yesterday, and combined with last Friday's decline, it just stepped out of a new trendVType reversal; However, the gold price hit its highest overnight1205Nearby, it will decline and weaken, and the current gold price will continue to decline in the short term1200Gate location; In fact, Shenzhi has been emphasizing that after the sharp rise and fall of gold prices, the continuity is not strong; Therefore, most of the time it is actually a volatile trend. After yesterday's rise in gold, today's short-term trend will first see a downward adjustment, and then continue to see a rebound after reaching the support below. The overall range is focused on the high and low points at the beginning of the week, which is1193-1205Area.


From the daily chart, it can be seen that the gold price is operating near the middle track of the Bollinger Belt, while the Bollinger Belt gradually flattens out after contraction. The space for gold to operate in the near future is still between the upper and lower tracks of the Bollinger Belt, with a range view1288-1210； Before the gold price is quite high, we will continue to observe the volatile trend of the market within this range.


Short line4From the hourly chart, it is obvious that gold has been fluctuating within the range recently, with multiple touches below1193Near the location, forming a short-term effective support position, while above1206-1208The region is the high point of multiple backdraws, and further, there are1212High point suppression on the front line; Therefore, in the short-term trend of gold, we can continue to look at volatility and operate by selling high and buying low near the support and resistance of the recent range.


　　crude oilreal-time info


International oil prices fell slightly on Monday, but after a slight increase during the day, they rebounded. The Iranian issue continues to affect oil prices, but the tense trade situation has put pressure on oil prices, and crude oil production from major oil producing countries continues to increase. As of closing, US oil futures closed lower0.30%Report68.77dollar/Barrel; Oil futures closed lower0.23%Report78dollar/Bucket.


According to Interfax, Russia9Crude oil production increased in the first half of the month113310000 barrels/Day. Russian Energy Minister Novak stated that OPEC+8The target for monthly production reduction execution rate is108%They will discuss fourth quarter demand and supply expectations this week. In addition, according to TASS, Russian Energy Minister Nowak said that he might discuss how to increase production more than10010000 barrels/Options for the day.


The crude oil production in the United States continues to increase. according toEIAMessage, expected10US shale oil production will increase in the month7.910000 barrels/Day. In addition, Secretary of Energy Perry of the United States（Rick Perry）During his visit to Moscow on Friday, he stated that the future of Saudi Arabia, the United States, and Russia18This month can increase crude oil production to compensate for the decrease in supply to Iran and other regions.


Japanese government officials16Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe plans to hold talks with President of Iran's President Rouhani in cooperation with the United Nations General Assembly in New York, the United States, later this month. The two sides will consult on how to deal with the sanctions imposed on Iran by the U.S. Trump administration. The Japanese government plans to consider ensuring crude oil supply and maintaining relations with Iran while also considering the United States.


Analysis of crude oil market


Yesterday's crude oil trend was exactly the same as in my weekly review analysis, with the Asian market flat and the European market soaring to69.7The first line gradually stabilized, but the US market was hindered and retreated, completely taking back the intraday gains. The final closing and opening prices were almost the same, showing a parallel oscillation trend overall. As of Tuesday, there has been little fluctuation in the Asian stock market, but from a technical perspective, at the daily levelKThe line connects the upper and lower tracks, running between the upper and middle tracks in Bolin, with parallel openings in Bolin, indicating that crude oil is still in a high and fluctuating trend.4From an hourly perspective, crude oil has surged since yesterday69.5So far, it has been recorded5根阴柱，表明短线的空头强劲，虽然欧盘行情有所反弹，最高到达69.75But69.75It is also the pressure level where crude oil rose and fell last Thursday, below68.3则是反弹支撑点，截至目前可以看到行情在69.75受到压制逐步回落，因此对于晚间操作上建议暂以此介入。再结合消息面上利空因素综合分析，在目前震荡走势行情当中需防患于空头能量的爆发，因此神指建议操作上以反弹高位做空为主。当然倘若行情意外上破69.75，后续思路上则需要转换看向短线的多头，大方向还是看空。


　Message

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