Industrial Investment:EIAOverall bullish sentiment combined with Iran's sanctions fermentation Strong crude oil gains

Industrial Investment:EIAOverall bullish sentiment combined with Iran's sanctions fermentation crude oilStrong closing high
2018year8month30day
International oil prices have risen significantly, with the United StatesEIAThe overall inventory report is bullish, while Iran's crude oil exports will be significantly affected by sanctions, which exacerbates the risk of crude oil supply shortages and provides effective support for oil prices. United StatesWTI 10Monthly crude oilfuturesrise1.43%to69.51dollar/bucket;Brent10Monthly crude oil futures rise1.57%to77.14dollar/Bucket.
EIAAccording to data released overnight, as of8month24The decrease in US crude oil inventories for the current week256.610000 barrels to4.058Billion barrels, market estimate for decrease68.610000 barrels;Reduced inventory of refined oil83.7Ten thousand barrels, market estimate for increase159.2Ten thousand barrels, with four consecutive weeks of growth followed by another decline and a record breaking record6month15The largest decline since the beginning of the week;Reduced gasoline inventory155.4Ten thousand barrels, market estimate for increase37Ten thousand barrels. In addition, domestic crude oil production in the United States remained unchanged last week110010000 barrels/Day. After the data was released, US crude oil futures rose nearly in the short term0.5The intraday increase in the US dollar has widened to nearly1.5%, reaching a seven week high.
Meanwhile, the latest data shows that Iran is8The export volume of crude oil and condensate for the month is expected to decrease6400Ten thousand barrels, equivalent to20610000 barrels/Day, this is also from2017year4Iran's monthly crude oil exports have fallen below the threshold for the first time since the beginning of the month7000Ten thousand barrels. This means that compared to this year4Of30910000 barrels/Compared to the peak daily export volume, Iran's oil exports have already suffered losses100More than ten thousand barrels. From the United States5After the "embargo" was proposed in the month, EU countries have started to stop or reduce crude oil exports from Iran. The market expects that as the embargo continues to ferment, Iranian crude oil exports will continue to decline, thereby exacerbating the risk of global supply shortages.
In addition, the trade agreement reached between the United States and Mexico has eased concerns about the tense situation between the two countries and also boosted the prices of commodities such as crude oil;At present, the market focus has shifted to Canada. After the opening of the Asian market today, crude oil futures fluctuated at high levels and temporarily held onto the overnight gains. Continue to monitor the latest developments in the international trade situation and the impact of changes in the strength of the US dollar on oil prices within the day.
USD Index
The US dollar index continued to decline on Wednesday, closing negative on nine out of the past ten trading days, despite the actual decline in the US second quarterGDPSetting the best level in nearly four years, but the subsequent announcement of a seven month consecutive decline in new home sales and a turning point in Brexit negotiations jointly suppressed the decline of the US dollar. Yesterday during trading in New York, European Union Chief Brexit Negotiator Banier stated after meeting with German Foreign Minister Mas that the EU is ready to provide unprecedented partnership to the UK;Afterwards, the pound surged by over 100 points to a three week high, while the US dollar reversed its decline and closed again94Near the mid-range. Today, there are still many important data in the United States, so pay attention to them7Monthly personal expensesPCEThe price index and the initial unemployment benefits report from last week have shown a good short-term downward trend in the US dollar.
technical analysis
American crude oil
Daily chart: Oil prices surged yesterday to8month8The highest level since the beginning of the day On the daily chart, a bullish outsourcing line was recorded, with eight days of gains in the past ten trading days. At present, the momentum indicators are still bullish, and the upward trend of oil prices remains good.
4Hour chart: Oil prices continue to fluctuate and rise, piercing through the resistance of the Poly+channel on the track, and there is room for further upward movement in the short term.
Hour chart: After the opening of the Asian market today, oil prices fluctuated at high levels, preliminary support for attentionMA(10)69.40。
Overview: It is recommended to hold onto69.40Going long later, targeting the target69.90and70.40。
Brent crude oil
Daily chart: Oil prices also rose strongly yesterday and refreshed7month12The highest level in recent days, with a bullish outsourcing line recorded on the daily chart. At present, the momentum indicators are still bullish, and the upward trend of oil prices remains good.
4Hour chart: Oil prices continue to fluctuate and rise, and have now broken through the resistance of the Poly+channel on the track. The short-term trend is bullish.
Hour chart: After the opening of the Asian market today, oil prices have fluctuated at high levels, and a short-term decline will provide a long opportunity.
Overview: Suggestions for improvement76.90Long above, targeting77.60and78Gateway.
Follow on Thursday:
Germany8Unemployment rate after quarterly adjustment/Changes in the number of unemployed individuals
britain7Monthly central bank mortgage loan permit
eurozone8Monthly economic prosperity/Industrial prosperity/business climate index
Germany8Monthly Consumer Confidence Index
Canada6monthGDP
Q2 CanadaGDP
U.S.A7Monthly personal income/Consumer expenditure
U.S.A7Monthly personal consumption expenditure price index/Core personal consumption expenditure price index
Changes in initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States after last week's quarterly adjustment