Poetry, tea, and gold:8.27Powell helps gold rise! Analysis of Monday's Gold and Crude Oil Market Trends

Friday(8month24day)According to Chinaforeign exchangeThe trading center released an announcement on Friday evening, stating that the central parity rate of the Chinese yuan against the US dollar has restarted its "countercyclical factor". According to the press release, recent factors such as the strengthening of the US dollar index and trade frictions have led to some pro cyclical behavior in the foreign exchange market;8Since the beginning of the month, the central parity rate of the Chinese yuan against the US dollar has been actively adjusted by the "countercyclical coefficient" to moderately hedge against the pro cyclical sentiment of depreciation; It is expected that the countercyclical factor will play a positive role in maintaining basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable equilibrium level in the future.


On Friday evening, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell delivered a speech at the Jackson Hole annual meeting, stating that there is no sign that inflation will accelerate to a higher level2%Above. US dollar indexDXYShort term decline exceeding30Point, approximation95Gateway; SpotgoldAscending and breaking1200dollar/At the ounce level, the intraday increase expanded to1.5%; Spot silver rose more than daily2%。COMEXMost Active GoldfuturesContract in Beijing Time22:00-22:03The trading volume within four minutes is10598Hand, the total value of the trading contract is close to13USD100mn


Friday(8month24day),Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said he expects interest rates to continue slowly and steadily, and the central bank hopes to find the right way between promoting growth and controlling excessive behavior. Powell stated that there is no sign that inflation will accelerate to rise2%Above, it is this sentence that makes the dollar bulls shudder. Powell's words have just fallen, and the US dollar index is down about in the short term30Point and approximation95At the checkpoint, non US currencies generally rose, while spot gold broke through1200dollar/The ounce mark. Earlier in the day, Federal Reserve official Brad unexpectedly made dovish remarks, which has put pressure on the US dollar.


Friday(8month24day)Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said in a speech that there is no sign that the economy is overheating or inflation will accelerate beyond the Federal Reserve's target. The economic situation is good, but not excessive. The US dollar fell after the news was released. In addition, Powell added that the current path of interest rate hikes is conditional. He said that if income and employment continue to grow strongly, a slow increase in the federal funds rate towards the target range may be appropriate.
　　Gold trend analysis:


The gold price rebounded from its daily low level, breaking through various obstacles of the short-term moving average again this Friday, weakening the short-term downside risk,MACDForming a red energy pillar with a dead cross below the zero axis, gold is expected to further rise,KDJThe golden cross formed at a low position is still intact and not damaged. It diverges upwards, and the gold failed to stand firmly on the middle track of the forest belt on Friday1209A line of resistance is still hovering between the middle and lower tracks of the Bollinger Bands, and the bearish trend has not been completely disrupted. Currently, gold prices have broken through5、10、20Above the moving average40Below the daily moving average, if gold unexpectedly regains the middle track of the Bollinger Bands next week1209On the front line, there is an increase in bullish signals. If you haven't recovered the position, continue to observe the oscillation1195-1210Interval oscillation.


Short term4Looking at the hourly chart, after the gradual upward trend of the white market this Friday, there has been some improvement. The Bollinger Bands have gradually started to contract upwards from the opening, and the short-term moving average5The daily moving average has stopped falling and is gradually turning upwards, with another upward trend10The trend of the daily moving average. On the attached indicators,macdBilinear in0There are signs of another transition towards the golden cross near the axis, and the green energy has already disappeared;stoThe double line is already in use20The axis transforms into a golden cross near it and further diverges upwards. Currently, the express line has broken through50Axis, slow lines also have the opportunity to break up. comprehensive4From an hourly perspective, there are signs that gold has regained its weak position. As soon as it steps onto the Bollinger Bands, this pattern will become more apparent. If not, then the pattern is expected to continue to return to weakness. Overall, in terms of operational strategy for next Monday, personal suggestions for Shiming PinjinMainly focusing on a pullback and taking long positions, supplemented by a high rebound, with a focus on the upper level1210-1212One line of resistance, pay attention below1196-1198Frontline support. The intraday market changes constantly, and the specific operational strategy is mainly based on the guidance of Shiming Pinjin's actual trading

　　crude oilTrend analysis:


Boosted by a significant decrease in inventory, which directly supports the rise of oil prices, the daily outlook shows that it is still fluctuating in a neutral position,KAlthough there are too many moving averages, the moving average system has not taken a one-sided approach, which makes the continuation of long and short positions somewhat insufficient. As mentioned by the author on Friday, the daily chart has emerged5Continuously rebounding, basically recovering from last week's decline and returning above the trend line, it has reached7In the second half of the month, the consolidation period shows a sense of consolidation in the short term. After all, the overall trend is relatively volatile, so the short-term trend is not overly chasing the rise. From the short-term hourly chart, it can be seen that after a narrow range correction in price yesterday, bulls increased their trading volume again on Friday, and the price broke through in the early trading session69The suppression level has started to rise, and the continued bullish trend within the day is also in line with the author's expectation of continued volume increase. Overall, in terms of next week's operational strategy, Shiming Pinjin personally suggests a pullback and a long position,Top Focus69.8-69.5One line of resistance, pay attention below67.5-67.2Frontline support. The market is constantly changing, and actual trading is the main focus.


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