Industrial Investment: US Embargo Threats Fermentation Crude oil steadily rebounds

Industrial Investment: US Embargo Threats Fermentation crude oilSteady rebound
2018year8month22day
International oil prices continued to rise on Tuesday and hit a week-long high, with four consecutive positive readings on the daily chart. Despite the US plan to sell strategic reserves of crude oil to stabilize the oil market, concerns about a potential decline in Iran's supply continue to support the rise in oil prices, and the continued decline of the US index also provides an opportunity for a rebound in oil prices. United StatesWTI 9Monthly crude oilfuturesrise0.64%to65.84dollar/bucket;Brent10Monthly crude oil futures rise0.58%to72.63dollar/Bucket.
The US "embargo" threat has continued to ferment recently, providing effective support for oil prices. It is reported that French oil giant Total has terminated all business activities in Iran and abandoned large-scale natural gas field development projects in the country. The United States is8month4Japan has imposed the first round of sanctions on Iran, and the second round of sanctions is expected to take place11Implemented at the beginning of the month, which led to a decline in the country's supply and triggered a tightening of the global crude oil supply.
In this regard, the US Department of Energy will sell before the US imposes sanctions on Iran1100Ten thousand barrels of strategic reserve crude oil. The announcement from the Ministry of Energy on Monday showed that the delivery date for the sulfur-containing crude oil to be sold is10month1Solstice11month30In order to alleviate the supply shortage caused by sanctions imposed by the United States and Iran. Analysts say that the embargo will lead to a decrease in Iran's crude oil supply10010000 barrels/In the short term, it will boost oil prices. But in the long run, even if other oil producing countries can fill this gap, the prospect of reduced global demand may become a major challenge for the oil market in the future.
In addition, the US dollar index has fallen for the fourth consecutive day and returned95Pass, continue to boost crude oil prices denominated in US dollars. US President Trump once again criticized the Federal Reserve for raising interest rates, and investors began to withdraw from safe haven positions in the US dollar before this week's economic and trade negotiations between China and the United States. After the opening of the Sanya market, crude oil futures fluctuated narrowly and held onto the overnight gains. Investors will focus on the United States during the day last weekEIAChanges in crude oil inventories are expected to cause short-term fluctuations in oil prices;Meanwhile, pay attention to the strength changes of the US dollar.
USD Index
The US dollar index suffered a heavy blow on Tuesday and hit a nine day low95.08On the daily chart, there were four consecutive negative readings, and US President Trump criticized the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes for continuing to put pressure on the US dollar;In addition, former private lawyer for Trump, Cohen, pleaded guilty to tax evasion, bank fraud, and violations of election laws, which also added to the downward pressure on the US dollar. The trade situation between China and the United States is relatively calm, and investors are still closely monitoring the economic and trade negotiations between the two countries in the second half of this week, which is expected to have a short-term impact on the US dollar. Important economic data in the United States remains light today, so please pay a little attention to it7monthNARSales data of completed houses after seasonal adjustment.
technical analysis
American crude oil
Daily chart: Oil prices continued to rise overnight and reached a week-long high, closing higher for the fourth consecutive day. Although the momentum indicator is temporarily bearish, oil prices have already broken throughMA(10)The rebound trend remains good, and it is expected to retest yesterday's high resistance within the day.
4Hour chart: bullish oil pricesMA(10)The support continues to rise, and the short-term upward trend is good. Breaking through yesterday's high resistance will point towardsMA(100)66.80。
Hour chart: After the opening of the Asian market today, oil prices continued to rise moderately, with a slightly bullish short-term trend.
Overview: In65.75Going long nearby, targeting66.30and66.80。
Brent crude oil
Daily chart: Oil prices have risen for the fourth consecutive day, maintaining a good upward trend. At present, the opening of the Poly Plus channel is attempting to level off,RSIMaintain near the midline, short-term oil prices are expected to remain volatile, stay tunedMA(20)73.10Breakthrough situation.
4Hour chart: bullish oil pricesMA(10)The support continues to rise, and the short-term upward trend is good. The initial resistance is yesterday's high73.15。
Hourly chart: After the opening of the Asian market today, oil prices have fluctuated narrowly. If we can maintain thisMA(10)72.90There is an opportunity to continue the upward trend.
Overview: Suggestions for improvement72.90Going long nearby and breaking through73.10Afterwards, it will point to73.75。
Follow on Wednesday:
Vice Chairman of the Reserve Bank of Australia, Debell, delivered a speech in Brisbane
Canada6Monthly retail sales/Core retail sales
U.S.A7monthNARSales of completed houses after seasonal adjustment
Last week in the United StatesEIAChanges in crude oil inventory