On Jin at this moment:8.2Early evaluation of gold and crude oil operation suggestions

Message surface:

周四凌晨两点美联储FOMC公布的利率决议及政策声明，届时不会召开新闻发布会。市场普遍预测美联储将按兵不动。但FOMC声明：维持联邦基金利率目标区间在1.75%-2%不变，经济增速仍保持强劲。美联储维持利率不变，gold短线上扬，美元指数DXY窄幅波动。通胀仍接近2%的水平，较长期通胀预期保持不变；维持超额准备金率在1.95%，贴现率在2.5%unchanged.

美联储重申预计将进一步渐进加息这一政策决定获得一致通过，货币政策的立场任保持宽松，将符合经济持续成长、就业市场以及通胀目标。FOMC声明：整体通胀和核心通胀指标接近2%。经济活动增速强劲，据路透：CME美联储观察显示，联邦基金利率市场暗示，交易员认为美联储在9Monthly interest rate increase25The probability of a basis point is91%。12Monthly interest rate hike to2.25-2.5%的概率为71%。

综合上市消息面来说，经济增速从稳健更新至强劲，就业市场逐步扩张使得通胀逐步通向2%的目标，FOMC声明偏向鹰派，也基本确认了渐进式加息路径不会改变，所以金辰认为，9月加息基本是板上钉钉了，黄金短线或者说8月初到中旬都应该是以震荡偏空为主。

Technical analysis of gold:

从日线上看，上周日线阴阳交替循环，无论是上涨还是下跌，多空都没有延续。其实秋亦老师一直提到过日线上的多空分水岭还需要进一步确认，进一步是再次形成极端继续上涨走势，而退一步则跌入万丈深渊。日线上布林带的还在张口，也暗示后市金价将维持震荡的走势，短线上多空仍存在悬念。那么本周我们依然还是重点关注上方1245一线的强阻力，这是顶底转换位，也是当前下行趋势阻力位，只有破位1245一线，那么整体格局或将会被打破，黄金才可能走反转。

from4小时来看，前面的持续下跌，结合近期的反弹上升，现在的重点是后面行情破位的方向，近期的反弹形成一个短期的上行通道，若后面行情向下突破下轨，4小时图上有望走出下降旗型的延续形态，那么后市趋势继续看跌，我们的操作也能顺势去布局空单；若行情向上轨阻力突破，没有形成旗型，而是走双底，那么短期还有继续反弹的空间，因此在操作不要盲目追单，先关注破位情况。短线操作思路上此刻论金个人建议区间高空低多，重点关注上方1245First line pressure, below1221一线强支撑。短线操作上关注上方1238-1236Line resistance, below1226-1223Frontline support.

crude oilMessage surface:

API库存增加的消息出炉后，原油价格持续下跌至晚间EIA公布时分。嘉怡认为尽管目前经济下行风险可控并且原油需求平稳，但随着库存的增加，上周原油供需再平衡重新被打破，油价多头可能会因此受到重创。

除了美国的消息，目前油市也聚焦于其他产油国的动态。能源咨询机构JBC最新报告行情瞬息万变.及时的指导可关注笔者公众呺嘉怡析金获取显示，欧佩克15country7月份产量增加3010000 barrels/Solstice325010000 barrels/日。而路透调查也称，欧佩克7Increase in monthly crude oil production710000 barrels/Solstice326410000 barrels/日，为年内新高。就算委内瑞拉等产油国面临供应中断危机，但欧佩克的整体增产空间还是很大。另外，美国对伊朗的态度也开始软化，这意味着制裁力度可能会得到缓和，伊朗有望恢复部分供应。

Technical analysis of crude oil:

From a daily perspective, crude oil has been closing positive for two consecutive trading days since the long shadow of the daily closing line at the beginning of last week. But this does not mean that bulls have stabilized, but rather the necessary adjustment in demand after the previous significant decline in oil prices. For recent crude oil, the continuity is not very good. Whether it is an increase or a decrease, the oil price has always been unable to achieve effective continuity. Of course, this is also a characteristic of the volatile trend. As for last Friday's long performance, it was indeed strong, but can only be seen as a rebound adjustment, not a reversal signal. First, consider it as a strong oscillation. From the current situation, although crude oil still belongs to a volatile pattern, it is still in an upward channel, as long as the oil price rises above again in the future70一线区域，那么将会迎来一波新的涨势。今日此刻论金个人建议延续低多思路，上方关注68.5/68.8resistance,Follow Below67.0/66.5Support.

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