Gui Chengmin7.24Gold price breaks through1230At the gateway, the oil market is unwilling to lag behind.

Gui Chengmin7.24Gold price breaks through1230At the gateway, the oil market is unwilling to lag behind.


Preface


　　周五，特冷普再度呛声美联储，gold趁势攻破1230Gateway. Iran has threatened to block oil exports from the strait with harsh language, but the oil market still harbors a greater hidden danger. The European Central Bank ignored Trump's accusations; Can non US currencies take advantage of this opportunity to regain their currency, and the US dollar regain its power?


Why is the gold trend fluctuating?


The main reason why gold has been continuously under pressure and falling due to geopolitical and risk aversion sentiment in recent times is still the market's concern for the Federal Reserve9The expectation of a monthly interest rate hike is constantly rising. Because the most direct impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike is a strengthening of the US economy, which will drive the US dollar up, the safe haven effect of gold and silver will be significantly reduced, leading to a decline in gold prices. therefore9The sentiment of raising interest rates again in the month is becoming increasingly intense, and gold will naturally come under significant pressure.


In addition,7month18Federal Reserve Chairman Powell made a statement expressing optimism about the US economy, stating that this year's US economic growth is "solid" and that the Federal Reserve will continue to raise interest rates to achieve monetary policy normalization. In addition, there will be further interest rate hikes as the economy strengthens. This statement has injected confidence into the US dollar bulls and further boosted investors' confidence in the Federal Reserve raising interest rates twice this year! So the US dollar index soared all the way and broke through on Thursday95.5Gold falls below1220And the minimum reached to1211Near.


Although the US economy has shown good performance and may raise interest rates twice within the year, the subsequent trend of gold has also bottomed out and rebounded. Although Powell deliberately downplayed trade this time. The impact of escalating conflicts on the US economy, but with global trade. The comprehensive outbreak of disputes is bound to have a significant impact on the US economy! Although from the current perspective, the market is concerned about trade. There has been no violent reaction to the dispute, and I personally believe this is due to the current trade situation. The controversial signing issue has not yet had a substantial impact on the market. As time passes, the market will inevitably usher in a new storm, so gold is expected to regain support and rebound from the bottom in the future.


　　crude oil：伊朗放狠话威胁封锁海峡石油出口 Protests in Iraq Became a New Hidden Danger in the Oil Market


The decline in the US dollar and the decline in active US oil drilling have boosted the confidence of crude oil bulls, providing some support for oil prices. Crude oil prices rebounded after reaching a low point


The large-scale protests that began last week in the oil producing areas of southern Iraq show no signs of abating, leading to disruptions in the normal order of oil facilities and government offices. Protesters are likely to target oil facilities, and the country's crude oil exports are facing the threat of interruption at some point this year, with the impact even more severe than the previous Libyan supply cut-off incident.


Although oil prices rose on Friday, they have fallen for the third consecutive week. I am still optimistic about the future rise in oil prices.



Technical Analysis


The trend of gold is expected to continue to be supported and upward; Technically speaking, the daily chart shows that gold prices are on the down track,5Daily moving average and10The daily moving average is moving downwards and slowly upward. As long as the gold price continues to fluctuate in the future, the gold fork is expected to further extend, indicating that gold will continue to rise temporarily1235Resistance level, then the target below sees the mid to low orbit of the daily line1220Near the US dollar; short-term4From the hourly chart, it can be seen that gold prices are operating near the upper and middle tracks of the Bollinger Belt, MACDThe fast and slow lines move upwards and prepare to move downwards. The red kinetic energy column continues to increase in volume and is randomKDJThe third line is already running downwards.


Teacher Gui believes that the trend is dominated by low gold prices, and today the main focus is on1230Break situation, if it breaks, it will continue to fall back to1220Support, if not breached, gold will continue to rise1240—1250Nearby. Approximate interval1220—1240


Operation suggestions


　　1.1225Multiple entry orders nearby. Stop loss1220 .target1240


　　2.1220Multiple entry orders nearby. Stop loss1215.target1240


Technical analysis of crude oil


Crude Oil Daily Line KThe line is located on the middle and lower tracks of the Bollinger Belt,MA5AndMA10Parallel operation downward, crude oil downward, supported by67.21，MACDAs the fast and slow lines move towards the middle, the green kinetic energy column becomes stronger and weaker, becoming randomKDJThe third line has reached the bottom.


Crude oil4Hours later, the Bollinger Belt closed, and crude oil is currently hovering near the mid orbit, with resistance above69.37Pay attention to the support below first67.21Can effective support be formed? If not, it may be necessary to see66.41Lower support, otherwise crude oil will rise68.77—69.37.


Personally, I think crude oil may first fall and then rise today, with a trend of mostly lower and generally within a range67.21—69.37



How many times have you opposed me before, but the fact proves that I am right. Those who understand me don't need to explain, and those who don't understand don't need to explain. I hope all investors understand that the market is always right. If you are wrong, you should summarize your own problems. Don't let the profits you have already obtained fly away, and let the market handle the profits and losses. What we can do is to control risks and invest steadily.


Trading is a long-term process that can be joyful, heartbreaking, and sometimes painful. However, this is investment, not only to make money, but more importantly, to cultivate awareness of making money and the use of funds. Don't expect a single profit to bring you anything. Without risk control, one operation may ruin everything. Calm down on operational successes and mistakes, learn to summarize, not only the experience of success, but also the lessons of failure! Choice is more important than effort! Follow the bet and win once. Follow the right person and win for a lifetime!


Dare to be the first Pursuing Excellence


The courage to lose everything is the only way to win the world

——This article was written by Gui Chengmin, officialV;XJ482116Delays in online publishing, volatile intraday market conditions, and risky investments require caution when entering the market