文夕点金：黄金原油接连下挫，7.18黄金原油操作分析

Wen Xi Dian Jin:goldcrude oil接连下挫，7.18黄金原油操作分析


Message surface:


周二，投资者都在盯着鲍威尔在国会的证词陈述，威尔证词提到，当前最佳途径是保持渐进加息，很难预料贸易政策对经济的影响，但长期关税偏高对经济不利。美国经济当前面临的风险大致均衡，美联储意识到加息太快或太慢的风险。证词发布后，黄金先是短暂走高，但之后金价失守1230关口，美指则收回之前跌幅。黄金多空双方也在1230关口附近展开激烈交锋。就在美联储主席鲍威尔即将在国会作证词之前，黄金市场遭遇了巨量卖单的“突袭”，金价大跌测试1230关口。数据显示，COMEXMost Active GoldfuturesContract in Beijing Time21:18-21:21The trading volume within four minutes is11611The total value of trading contracts exceeds14亿美元。虽然鲍威尔讲话短暂提振了黄金，但最终其还是失守1230关口，金价创近一年新低。截至收盘，期金下跌1.10%Report1227.4dollar/ounce.



Gold trend analysis:


技术面来看，连续下跌的延续性从日线级别来看很强，金价从目前的走势来看是极弱，MACD下跌放量强势，RSI指标也是不断下降，短线还是先空为主，短线黄金下跌暂时没有延续，但是这个并不影响看空的思路，昨日黄金下跌反弹最高1234.4一线后再次下跌，这个也是今天关注点位，弱势的延续就看黄金今天能不能在此承压回落，早盘黄金开盘低位震荡，距离阻力位较远，暂时以1230附近压力去进场，下方关注1220的位置，日内还是以短线为主，毕竟现在价格已经超跌，行情在低位反复的可能性还是很大。


4小时整理后破位收低，短期均线重新死叉向下形成阻力。结合昨晚反弹的最后一个高点在1234.同时也是在破位口1236.说明短线1234-1236形成了一道关口压力。弱势延续的话，今日会围绕在1236下方承压继续下跌。操作保持顺势短线看空，考虑到价格比较低，短线做空以日内短线为宜。


Suggestions for Gold Operations:


1Suggest a fallback1220-1222分批做多，严格止损1318, Objective1228-1230frontline;


2Suggest a rebound1230-1232Short in batches, stop loss1236, Objective1226-1224frontline.



Analysis of crude oil trend


原油本周整体维持极弱走跌的行情，多次高台跳水，价格也不断的下跌走弱也是一个多头获利回吐的表现。周线直接以一根大阴线下跌，其价格也触及5、10周线的位置，并且形成短线支撑小幅度探底回升，表明价格在此有一定的支撑作用；从日线来看，上周三直接出现断崖式的下跌行情，导致后面两天维持一个反弹修正的走势没有太大的波幅，价格也依旧受阻于5Daily moving average and10日均线，布林带的缩口，也暗示后市维持震荡偏空的走势；但是价格大幅度的下跌，后市必定有调整的需求，所以操作是依旧为此反弹做空的思路。


From a technical perspective,4The hourly break continues with two waves of downward adjustment. Of course, the current decline is treated as an adjustment, not a trend, but a correction in the upward trend. The space is relatively larger, after all4Hour level adjustment space. along with69.20The break of this level translates into today's resistance, and today's rebound continues to see a downward trend under pressure around this level. But yesterday, there was still a significant release of the Great Yin space. Today, after the inertia decline, there will continue to be low volatility, and prices will fall too quickly. The indicator cannot keep up with the speed of up and down, and it is easy to pause and fluctuate after the big negative line, so today the short-term rebound is still empty. So, in the short term, the focus is on crude oil68.1One line of resistance, pay attention below67.2Frontline support, break through and continue to focus below67.0关口支撑，今日操作思路上文夕个人建议继续反弹高空为主。操作上文夕老师建议原油以反弹高空为主，回调做多为辅，上方重点关注68.00-68.10One line of resistance, pay attention below67.50-67.20Frontline support.





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