Shan Chenjin:7.16世界杯结束警惕市场波动加剧，外汇黄金晚间走势分析

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Shan Chenjin:7.16世界杯结束警惕市场波动加剧，foreign exchangegold晚间走势分析


对于金融市场而言，世界杯的结束可能也将具有连锁反应。此前，多家外媒和机构曾报道，在世界杯期间由于交易员沉迷于看球，华尔街也为世界杯分了神！赛事期间金融市场交易量骤降50%，导致市场高波动的事件被低估，投资者务必警惕决赛后市场波动扩大的风险。

Monday（7month16日）欧市盘，现货黄金小幅上扬，而美元指数则开盘走低。本周对于贵金属市场而言，无疑将是颇为关键的一周。美联储主席鲍威尔周二将在参议院金融委员会就经济及货币政策发表半年一度的证词陈述，这将给投资者推测未来政策走向提供重要线索。


according toCMEFederal Reserve Observation9Monthly interest rate increase25Bps to2%-2.25%The probability of the interval is84.6%；12月至该区间的概率为40.2%。这意味着，如果鲍威尔的此次证词陈述有任何鸽派言论，恐将引发汇市大地震！就目前的情况，由于贸易原因，导致市场对美联储的货币政策逐渐出现质疑的声音。就盘面而言，多空拉锯非常激烈，同时市场分歧也很大，因为确实到了选择方向的时候，不过具体怎么样，我们不主观猜测，当前继续按照前两个星期制定的战略步骤走。


就盘面来看，价格几乎没有变动，当价格变动不大的时候，耐心比什么都重要。很多时候一个好的心态也是一笔单子成功的关键。而一个坏的心态往往使好的单子变成坏的单子。所以晚间我们更多是从技术之外去讲行情。


黄金方面，日内的变动不是很大，还是围绕1243一线横盘。但是在早间我们就强调过了，它的形态类似于欧元日线。二次探底回升，有望向上去走延续。同时在二次回撤当中我们也强调了中线的一个尝试方法。当然，坚守是一件很重要的事。另外我们可以看几个点：周五凌晨横盘的高点，欧盘和早间两次被拿下，虽然日线没有完全收盘站在上方，但这种日内的刺破也算是慢慢转向的现象。而当前来说，下跌的空间也不是很足，特别是在周五出现日线转阴之后，行情连阴的概率也不是很大。

而技术图上，今天四小时图连续录得两根阳K，本四小时也即将走完，如果继续收阳，后市黄金将还有反弹力度，反弹高点留意1246-1248Secondly1250-1252，下方支撑留意1240Support, second1236低点，截止到目前为止，黄金波幅较小，单子没进场的不要着急，操作机会多的是，不要急于一时，耐心等待操作时机。当前建议日内1241-1242多单可以继续持有，小中线即可，上方阻力位1250frontline.


被套单怎么办？


1、锁损抓盈（稳健）：时间周期长，容易受手中套/单干扰下一步操作。


2、一扛到底（资金大）：资金大才有资格说扛。


3、直接止损（难以接受但立竿见影）：重新开始布局，没有主观干扰。


4、锁仓（锁到解不出）：何时是头，最后的结局还是血本无归。


以上处理方式我相信都有经历过，唯有一种方法我知道你们肯定不愿意，就是直接止损。


我给大家的建议只有两种，1and3。选择1思考了到稳健，投资者也可以接受。考虑3，是我想更快的挽回损失。

There is no wine that cannot be drunk, only people who cannot be drunk. This is like pretending to sleep, you can never wake up, people with dreams and pressure can't sleep. After waking up, you only realized that you had made a mistake yesterday, and only after setting up the order did you realize the seriousness of the mistake. At the beginning of the story, there are few beautiful endings, and most end with sadness. In trading, persuading people to stop losses is not a good profession, but taking too many chances is definitely not a good thing. Many mistakes occur, just a small stroke of luck. The place where the trouble arises is a small fire, and a large fire burns oneself out, making it difficult to extinguish the fire. Every time someone asks about their position, it is basically an incurable stage. They take chances all the way, remain stubborn, watch shows all the way, and only seek solutions when there is no solution. At this time, they are basically resigned to fate, and it is almost impossible for one or two words to activate a good account. Cutting off evil thoughts lies at the source, and cutting off luck also lies at the source. At the beginning of each position, set your own maximum loss line, and there is no need to hold it afterwards.


Author of this article: Shan Chenjin


Author's Message: A broad view and appointment, thick accumulation and thin hair!


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The above content is for reference only. Investment carries risks and caution is required when entering the market.