Ma Huasheng:7.2非农数据周；黄金原油行情分析及操作建议策略附解套！

　　　　
Analysis is not a result,而是一种逻辑，时间是流动的，事物是发展变化的，所以短线的波动在逻辑内运行则坚守，一旦出现逆转，及时调整策略才是重中之重，大部分的投资者能够接受盈利，但是接受不了亏损，心态的出发点就错了，学会投资，需要一个好的心态，走好人生，需要一个好的心境，心态有时决定着你投资的成败。，每一位在读这篇文章的人，马华胜感谢与你相遇！
　　　　
　　goldMarket trend analysis:
　　
　　上周从一开始就有很多人在说开始抄底，结果黄金从周初的高点1272一线开始受阻，高低点不断下移，呈现台阶式下跌，连续四天跌破新低，一度下破1260、1250的关口，周四更是创下的1245的最低点，触及六个月以来的低点，因受益于美国和欧洲的货币政策分歧以及欧洲的政治局势，不过在尾盘周五金价走了一个探底回升，在早盘测试1245不破后反弹，美盘更是上冲1255一线后回落，整体小幅收涨，黄金并顺势站上1250关口上方，从而使下周金价继续有一些反弹迹象，也不能凭一根阳线，下结论定义黄金的反转到来，还需要更多的信号支撑金价的反转
　　
　　技术面上，上周连续四天收跌回落，呈现四连阴，虽然周五盘中有小幅反弹，但是整体走势上表现的依旧是极其弱势的形态，黄金自下跌以来就一直呈现一个单边的慢阴碎跌，虽然中途有所反弹修正，但是力度不大，并且始终没有打破近期下跌以来的下行通道，特别是金价还维持在短期5日均线下方，因此近期的反抽我们不能认为是反转信号的出现，至于底部问题暂时保留抄底的想法。四小时方面在周五之前贴着10日均线震荡慢跌，很明显是呈现阶梯下跌，但周五的反弹让黄金慢慢站上短周期5、10日均线，短线看有些许反弹迹象，不过仍受阻于中轨1255/56的压制，所以只要没能突破中轨就不要考虑多头反转，只看做是反弹修正，站稳之后我们再做大胆跟随
　　
　　总的来看，不要因为周五的反弹就又盲目的去看底和抄底，通过近期的走势相信你也可以体会到提前抄底的痛苦，而黄金目前依旧是处于受打压状态，所以周一建议上方重点关注1255/56一线压力位，下方则短时关注1246一线支撑，操作上马华胜​建议先保持反弹做空的思路，如若直接上冲破位压力在考虑回撤做多上方关注1260一线，更多的交易思路和非农操作计划马老师将会在实盘中给出
　　　　
　　黄金技术操作建议：
　　
　　1Suggestions1255Short selling, stop loss1259, Objective1252-50。
　　
　　2Suggestions1248上做多，激进者1250进，止损1245, Objective1253-55。
　　　　
　　crude oilMarket trend analysis:
　　
　　关于原油此波顶点暂定在74.4美元附近。这个在行情走出后已成了铁打的事实。其中在6month28日晚有明确地解释过。各位缺少的不是勇气，而是抛弃价格及市场因素后的决定。价格的上涨和下跌，以及持仓的方向会影响到你的判断，所以很多人难以抓住顶部及底部。在6月，月线收官后，油价明显触及的两个位置，前期多次提到的月线级别阻力ma90均线压制位及周线回归通道上轨。
　　
　　原油，日线图，明显发现，均线追不上价格上涨，5日均线的乏力，暗示着多头的逐步衰弱；且价格已明显脱离布林带上轨，小时图，周五创造出新高位后，受上轨压制，且收盘收阴；四小时，多空能量分布图，低点空头能量强势的触底，以及高点多头能量强势的触顶；明确来说，五个快慢线交叉节点，预示着此波多头的结束；原油阻力：74.5；短线支撑：73.8；支撑：71.6；
　　
　　
　　原油技术操作建议：
　　
　　一：建议74-74.3Short selling, stop loss74.8Stop surplus72.3;;
　　
　　二：建议74.2-74.3Short selling, stop loss75.5Stop surplus5-7dollar;
　　
　　
　　黄金解套方法如下：
　　
　　1Long term unwinding. Investors who have identified a major trend (such as a bullish market) and placed their orders in a minor trend (a downward trend in the market) can first stop losing and then enter at a lower price to earn a price difference. This can also earn profits from the major trend and reduce the risk of short positions caused by the minor trend.
　　
　　2Short line unwinding. If investors make a complete mistake in their judgment of the market, they should decisively close their positions to avoid further unilateral price fluctuations and greater losses. The longer short-term investors hold in a unilateral market, the greater the losses they will incur.
　　
　　3Light position unwinding (also applicable to investors with large funds). That is, as the decline in the price increases, it increases the buying price and uses idle funds to lower costs, waiting for the price to rebound. Its advantage is that no matter how deep it is nested, as long as it is operated properly, it can be unlocked once there is a rebound.
　　
　　4, band unpacking. This method is suitable for various market stages of hedging, especially for volatile markets, mainly relying on data fluctuations and utilizing price differences to unwind. The concept of this method is to buy low and sell high, sell high and buy low, gradually reducing costs and reducing losses. Its advantage lies in the variety of operating techniques, which are not limited to a single pattern, actively attacking, and if operated properly, the release speed is fast. The disadvantage lies in the high demand for personal time, energy, and ability, frequent operation with certain cost pressure, and improper operation can easily cause greater losses. We need professional knowledge and guidance with time, energy, and skills.

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