Pin Xin:6.15Interpretation of the morning trend of gold crude oil and layout of gold crude oil operation strategies

　　美联储主席鲍威尔在随后的新闻发布会上证实，从明年一月起，每次FOMCAfter the meeting, a press conference will be held, and this decision is only for improving communication and does not convey any other signals. He said that the inflation target is anchored in2%Very important, victory in inflation is achieved2%The goal is to stay at that level. He said that the Federal Reserve does not seek to play a role in trade policy, and that trade policy is currently more of a risk and has not begun to have an impact. Regarding forward guidance, he stated that it would no longer be appropriate to retain the term 'loose' in monetary policy statements when interest rates approach neutral levels; Now is the appropriate time to remove forward-looking guidance, and this change does not reflect any change in policy views.
　　
　　个人认为记者会也传达出了相对鸽派的信号。例如，鲍威尔强调，美联储官员对两年后（2020The inflation expectation for the year is2.1%Still Distance2%The symmetric inflation target is not far away, and the Federal Reserve model does not show that inflation is likely to surge. Moreover, in this meeting, 'most officials did not adjust the dot matrix expectations'. He repeatedly reiterated that the Federal Reserve will be very cautious to ensure that the pace of policy tightening is not too fast.
　　
Federal Reserve raises interest ratesgoldWhy didn't it fall but instead skyrocketed?
　　
　　其实加息后行情不管怎样，都是要涨的，只是怎么涨的问题。并且还有一个很有意思的规律，那就是买预期卖事实，每次加息之前黄金都会遭到抛售，也就是黄金下跌，而加息落地后则黄金上涨，而且这种上涨是当时的，也就是加息落地马上就涨，只有一次例外，做技术分析有一项很重要的理论叫时间循环，在技术分析的三大前提中，这叫历史会重演，实际上技术分析就是一个找规律的过程，所以当前依然保留看涨加息落地后黄金将上升的思路。
　　
Technical analysis of gold:
　　
　　黄金从技术上看，黄金重返1300The upward trend after the Great Barrier has begun to strengthen, but it remains to be seen whether the gold price can maintain above it. The next goal for bulls is to break through200The resistance level of the daily moving average is approximately1308frontline. From the daily chart of gold, the price of gold runs between the upper and middle tracks of the Bollinger Bands.MACDThe red kinetic energy column is increasing in volume and still strong, with the speed line still below the zero axis and some pressure above it.
　　
From4From the hourly chart, the trend of gold rises and falls, and overall it is still hovering in a large range,MACDThe golden cross is above the zero axis, and the red energy column is increasing, breaking through1310Short term mitigation of downside risks,KDJInitial formation of a dead cross, there is still some pressure above, if it effectively falls below1300Heart barrier, further support1298Nearby,4The hourly gold price is running on the middle track of the Bollinger Bands, after several waves of data market baptism. If gold does not break a new high today, it is still a volatile trend. Pay attention to the above today1308Resistance, pay attention below1300Psychological support is crucial, and it is recommended to take long positions at low levels and short positions at high levels for operation.
　　
Suggestions for Gold Operations:
　　
　　1Falling back-1298-1300Long on the front line, stop loss4US dollars, look at the target1308upper;
　　
　　2, unbreakable1310Light short position, stop loss4USD, target1302Nearby;
　　
　　crude oilTechnical analysis:
　　
　　原油虽说昨日数据没有跟随凌晨APINegative, but the impact is not significant because the idea of supporting a rebound is already clear. In the morning session, the market followed the overnight US sessionAPINegative sentiment expands the decline, with a brief dip during the day65.4The first line, which emphasized yesterday's opening on Tuesday, was followed by a volatile upward trend in the European market. In the short term, as we expected, the bulls resisted the pressure of further correction, while the overall white market trend tended to be flat, leaving the suspense in the US market data. Yesterday's analysis emphasized that even under the premise of negative data, crude oil is likely to support a rebound, which is inevitable in form, so there is no doubt about going long. Then, before the US market, the crude oil hourly line closed at a medium negative, followed by two consecutive cross stars. The decline was clearly weak, and the point was located at the rebound position on Tuesday. Then, driven by data, it rose directly, breaking the daily high66.75On the front line, the intraday trend fully conforms to the analysis.
　　
　　尽管昨日行情走势完全符合的预期，但也并未尽善尽美，做得不足的地方在于美盘进场点位的把控上，前面几周eiaThere is a strong commonality between data and market trends, which has been mentioned multiple times and needs to be noted. So, in the early morning of Tuesday's trading sessionAPIUnder the premise of bearish data, we have to consider the worst-case scenario. As for the continued decline in the morning, we have already made it clear that it was a bearish release in the early morning. Therefore, even if the data in the US market is bearish, there is a high probability that it will stop falling and rebound above the low point in the morning. This is my approach. Unfortunately, the US marketeiaThe data did not follow the early morning hoursAPIIf it is bearish but significantly bullish, then the data will naturally rise directly. There is no other way, the impact of fundamentals cannot be analyzed and predicted, so even if there were some discrepancies in yesterday's data, I still believe it is necessary to take these into account. If we have to say the reason, risk awareness should always be above profit.
　　
　　现在，原油重新上涨，四小时趋势线压制也已经企稳，那么整体上后续也将大概率延续这一走势，尤其以日线收线极为明显。昨日盘分析已经指出，既然周二已经首次突破了阻力，那么后续再涨上来就不是难事，事实也的确如此，这符合原油一贯以来的上涨特点。不过现在资讯相信有人又开始纠结了，因为按照日线阴阳循环的规律来看，今天似乎应该做空才对，但是形态上多头走势明显，举棋不定可以理解。但是，有一点需要明确的是，即便是日线遵循阴阳循环的规律，那也是在形态内，可以利用这种规律去跟随，但不能将其作为操作的依据。现在事实是多线依据转多，那么操作依然以回调做多为主，即便行情当真回调，也是在冲高遇阻的前提下，也就是日线可能冲高回落，但绝不会直接转跌。当前上方阻力靠近67On the front line, once it stabilizes, the upward trend will continue. On the contrary, short-term short selling and single shot drawing can be considered.
　　
Suggestions for crude oil operation:
　　
　　1Crude oil66Nearby, stop loss0.5USD, target67/67.3USD;

　　作单不顺的时候，一定要暂时休息，任何人对于市场走势的判断不可能一贯正确，正常情况下出现一两次错误影响不大。但是如果接二连三地出现错误，很可能说明目前你已经失去了对市场的把握能力，暂时休息应该是这时的樶佳选择。


　　市场二八定律，注定樶终留下来的是少数，不要带着亏损离开本可以长存的投资市场。真金白银买教训樶不可取。学到了，你的本金也就所剩无几了。


　　把专业交给我们，把时间留给家人。
   
    writing/Pinxin's（px3599）