Sincerely open:6.4黄金原油操作建议早评

SimpleKLine


But it contains traces of game theory


Following the trace of operation


Find the direction of the trend


And grasp the direction


And seize the future

　　一周前被特朗普取消的“特金会”仍有如期举行的希望。


　　据报道称，一名朝鲜高官料将于美国时间本周五亲手将金正恩的信交给特朗普。一位了解内容的政府官员称，金正恩这封信非常基本，它表达了金正恩有兴趣与特朗普会面，信中没有任何明显的妥协，也没有对美方的威胁。消息公布后，6month1日本周五美股涨势未变，标普涨约0.9%，纳指涨幅扩大到1.2%以上，盘初涨超200点的道指涨幅略为收窄到190点以内。


　　不过本周五出现了一个“彩蛋”！一份积极的就业报告不一定意味着美国股市将走高，因投资者或将其视为美联储或激进加息以避免经济过热。所以，在报告公布前政府对市场透露任意信号都是极其反常的举动。而在本次非农报告公布前69分钟，特朗普发推表示“期待今日8:30发布的非农报告”，违反了数十年以来的规定，即1985年颁布的“至少在就业报告公布后一小时内，联邦政府官员不得发表相关评论”。即便此前特朗普政府数次在一小时内发表了评论，违反了规定，但这是当局首次在报告公布前透露消息。这也是非农前gold下跌一波的原因！

　　黄金行情解析：


　　本周五稍早公布的5The monthly US non-farm employment data is impressive, with more new non-farm workers added than expected3.3Ten thousand people, the unemployment rate hit an 18-year low. Announced in the early trading session5Month USAISMManufacturing Index58.7, higher than expected, walked out4Last year created by the month7The lowest point since the beginning of the month. Gold began to decline before the release of non-agricultural data1299reach1294After a drop of $5 and bearish data on non-agricultural and unemployment rates were released, gold prices fell from1294reach1289, fell by five dollars again, but the shadow position reached3USD, physical arrival below1292Through this set of data, we can find that the impact of non-agricultural sectors on gold volatility has become very weak. Based on previous data, since2017year2From month to present, the fluctuation of gold has exceeded10The only amount in US dollars is2Second, and it's10and11dollar,15There are no fluctuations above US dollars. Non agriculture is no longer the same as before, and this is mainly due to the overall small fluctuations in the gold market in recent years. So even with the repeated background sorting, the data doesn't seem to be able to cause too much waves. So the data we need to pay attention to during the trading process is no longer the most important, and we still need to analyze and grasp it from a technical perspective. So, how should we look at future gold?


　　本周的ADP，GDP的利多，但是并未让行情上破1306-1308的压力，多次冲高无果。而失业金数据，中美贸易战升级，意大利政治问题也都没引发突破。而非农数据也只是虚破探底1289，并未形成有效的防线选择，周五的起跌点在1299—1300，势必将成为后面黄金重回千三之上的重要压力位，从月线上面来分析，一般月线初期会先寻找高点和低点。那么就能得知，先寻找低点的可能性很大，那么下周如果没有很明显的反弹迹象，建议高空思路为主。从周线上面来分析可能会看的更清晰一点，基本没有很强势的反弹，而且低点也是连续破位，反弹也没有突破起跌点1326一线，那么对于目前来说是看好空头的。从日线图上我们也可以看到黄金大的趋势依然是维持大区间震荡，短期内不会有太大的变动，小时图上，1292三次试探未破，周五即使是在非农利空的情况下也只是实体下部刚好触及1292，从技术面上看后期黄金的走势依然是维持区间震荡，震荡区间看1287—1306Between communities1290—1300！短线上坚定高空。


Golden Operation Strategy:

　　1、1291Long nearby, stop loss1287Next, target1296-1298；


　　2、1298Short selling, stop loss1302, Objective1290，下破减仓；


　　crude oilMarket analysis:


　　说完黄金我们来说一下原油，本周原油的行情可以看作是上周原油暴跌的横盘整理，一如此前黄金从1325fall to1290，但是原油的跌幅大得多，所以震荡区间也大得多！下周还有一些投资者不知道为什么上周原油会跌，诚至金开在这里大致说一下，此前原油因供需问题一直上涨，主要供应问题有伊朗原油出口遭制裁和委内瑞拉产油出现问题，但是上周传出OPECMember States and NonOPEC成员国或将放缓减产协议执行力度的消息，所以原油跳崖式下跌了一波，说白了就是有消息称原油产量要增加了，所以原油下跌了。


　　但是本周又有“消息人士”出来发话了，诚至金开不知道这是哪里的消息人士，也不知道他是哪里得到的消息，反正就是有人说OPEC增产会在很久之后，短期是不会增产的。是真是假我们都不知道，但是原油确实是对此做出了反应！此前OPEC称原油增产或在6月份，诚至金开认为这是不太现实的，之前传出的消息是原油增产10010000 barrels/日，这个数字你可能没有什么概念，诚至金开告诉你，世界产油大国美国现在的原油产量创下国内记录，也不过104710000 barrels/日，这几乎是全美国原油产量的1/10了！这种产量是想增加就增加的？现在世界上最限制原油产量的不是原油钻井数，而是运输问题，这也是此前委内瑞拉油管破裂影响这么大的原因，原油增产也是需要成本的！


　　所以对于下周原油的行情诚至金开是看多的，先不说OPEC会不会增产，即使增产也不是现在，所以短期诚至金开坚定看涨原油！美国作为产油大国，而且是一个产油量一直在增加的产油大国，WTI原油价格下跌很大原因就是因为他，美国一直想弥补国内严重的贸易赤字，而增加原油出口就是最直接的方法！原油运输管道的建成需要高品质的钢材，而美国钢材主要依赖进口，但是美国现在要征收钢铝关税！这就是重点，征税当然会导致钢铝进口收到影响，这将成为原油产量最大的阻力，在美国难以继续增大原油产量的情况下，诚至金开是坚定看多后市原油的！行情瞬息万变。
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US crude oil: fixed margin400USD in one hand/1000Bucket, Fluctuation0.02USD return, fluctuating0.01USD profit and loss10USD, no spread, no overnight fee.


Silver: Fixed margin400USD in one hand/5000Ounces, fluctuating0.010USD return, fluctuating0.01USD profit and loss20USD, no spread, no overnight fee.


US Gold: Estimated Margin400USD in one hand/100Ounces, fluctuating0.2USD return, fluctuating0.1USD profit and loss10USD, no spread, no overnight fee.


Natural gas: Fixed margin400USD in one hand/10000mmBtuFluctuation0.·002USD return, fluctuating0.001USD profit and loss10USD, no spread, no overnight fee.