Shan Chenjin:6.1Can non farm sectors break the gold shock? Detailed explanation of non-agricultural trends

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Shan Chenjin:6.1Can non farm farming break throughgoldshock? Detailed explanation of non-agricultural trends
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Summary:Summary: Friday(6month1day)Financial market investors will face a major non farm event. As a traditional monthly drama, Friday's non farm payroll will undoubtedly become the focus of investors' attention. However, the recent impact of non farm payroll on the market is truly disappointing. Will there be a black swan tonight? Let's wait and see!


--International News Analysis--

Friday Beijing Time20:30Investors will face the baptism of non farm payroll reports. Analysts point out that if the non farm payroll report performs strongly, especially if wage growth exceeds expectations, the US dollar is expected to be boosted, while gold prices may be hit. Foreign media investigation shows that the United States5Monthly non farm employment is expected to increase19Ten thousand, the unemployment rate is3.9%The US Department of Labor(DOL)5month4The data released today shows that the United States4Non farm employment increased16.4Ten thousand people,4The monthly unemployment rate has decreased3.9%, refresh2000Low since the end of the year.


Compared to the past two months, this quarterGDPThe rebound should support a moderate acceleration of employment. The market focus will be more on the level of unemployment and, more importantly, any evidence of wage growth. Foreign media investigation shows that the United States5Monthly average hourly salary and monthly rate are expected to increase0.2%The annual growth rate is expected to climb2.6%。 U.S.A4Monthly average hourly salary growth rate0.1%Expected growth0.2%, the previous value is corrected to growth0.2%； U.S.A4Monthly average hourly wage annual growth rate2.6%Expected growth2.7%, the previous value is corrected to growth2.6%If salary data performs well, the gold market will be under pressure, although it will not affect it6Monthly interest rate hike, but it will strengthen9and12The expectation of a monthly interest rate hike, but it is worth noting that there are no obvious signs of wage increases in recent non farm employment reports. Will the salary data still disappoint this time?


--Analysis of spot gold market--


After experiencing two weeks of turbulence, it is estimated that everyone is very tired. In addition to fluctuating sideways within the range every day, there are also fluctuations in the future. But today is different, non farm day. Don't get excited about non-agricultural activities, because in the past two years, there have been fluctuations in non-agricultural activities10Within the US dollar, even if the non farm payroll value is extremely poor, there is not much change. But to understand non-agricultural, we need to pay attention to a few points:


1、ADPSmall Non Farm Farmers, Throughout the Year,70%The above market trends will coincide with non farm operations. So, before non farm farmingADPYou must pay close attention to it. this weekADPGold bullish, data better than expected, but slightly worse than last month. However, the initial request on Thursday did not increase the positive value, and the data was negative for gold, showing a pattern of bottoming out and rebounding. Last month's non farm payroll16.6Wan, expected to increase this month to18.8Wan, better than expected, while employment data remains at3.9%This is an extremely low value for many years. According to the data, this month18.8Ten thousand is not very high, and the possibility of stepping over is also relatively high, which can easily create a negative impact on gold, but it should be maintained3.9%The unemployment rate is still a bit difficult to estimate4.0%Maybe even bigger. In addition, the overall trend of the daily chart is fluctuating. Relying on non-agricultural breakthroughs is basically hopeless.


2The current trend, using extremely strong and weak thinking, is definitely not suitable, it can only be high selling and low buying. For example, in yesterday's market, the intraday sideways trend was1300Above, it was originally believed that the strong market trend would not break1300Breaking through the difficulty and drawing back. As a result, the price has reached the morning increase point1298Later rebound.1306Falling, walking into a perfect range. This is oscillation.


And today's difference lies in4Despite the continuous decline, the price has not dropped much. At the same time, we can see that the indicators are running quickly and the price is resistant to decline, which is not an extremely weak characteristic. So, this is a continuation of the oscillation. In conjunction with non-agricultural activities, there will still be range fluctuations today. The probability of direct negative impact is not high. The probability of bottoming out and rebounding is actually slightly higher. This is the characteristic of the market in the past two years. Once gold is in a critical position, the data will always show a bullish trend.

Before the release of large data, the market generally fluctuates. The market is inherently volatile, like adding wings to a tiger. Today, it looks even more volatile during the day. Be sure to pay attention to the non-agricultural period10The minute trend shows that if there is a decline before the non farm payroll, there is a high probability of an increase, and if there is an increase before the non farm payroll, there is a high probability of a decline. According to the layout of bottoming out and rebounding, support1292-1293Multiple lines, losses1287, Objective1300. Upper resistance1306The top of the region is still the boundary between strength and weakness. If the market rises before the non farm payroll, then enter the bearish trend early. Let's see1296-1294Just one line is enough. Interval consolidation of market trends without chasing gains or selling losses, without guessing breakthroughs, and without consideringKLine with strong yang and strong yin, simple and brainless execution of long and short in the locked interval.


--Suggestions for spot gold operation--


1Above1304-1306Short selling, stop loss1310, Objective1296-1294


2Support1292-1293Multiple lines, losses1287, Objective1300。


Finally, investors need to remember the following words from Dan Chenjin!


1Non retaliatory ordering will only make you lose your sanity and direction.


2If the order is less than, we must not lock it. We are most afraid of losing orders, and if the order is less than, we must not lock it.


3Do not engage in impromptu trading, make orders based on intuition, be optimistic about trends, recognize the situation, and take every transaction seriously.


4There are millions of correct transactions;But why do you only have the wrong trading methods in your mind.


5Wrong trades may not necessarily cause you to lose money, but they will definitely make you lose a lot of money at once.

6.1Children's Day. This holiday, besides blessings, is also a blessing. May all children in the world be happy, and all parents aspire for their children to succeed. Some days need to be simple, and some ideas need to be simple. Just like trading, if you are afraid of short stop losses and overthink, you will miss the opportunity. Shaking to chase after more, the result is also wrong. If the definition is simple, simple trading, not changing due to market fluctuations, is the ultimate trading. Who isn't pursuing this kind of simplicity and perfection? That's why everyone envies children.


Author of this article: Shan Chenjin


Author's Message: A broad view and appointment, thick accumulation and thin hair!


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The above content is for reference only. Investment carries risks and caution is required when entering the market.