Shan Chenjin:6.1What do you think of the non farm pre-market trend? Analysis of intraday trends in gold

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Shan Chenjin:6.1What do you think of the non farm pre-market trend?goldIntraday trend analysis
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Summary:Friday(6month1day)Financial market investors will face a major non farm event. As a traditional monthly drama, Friday's non farm payroll will undoubtedly become the focus of investors' attention. However, the recent impact of non farm payroll on the market is truly disappointing. Will there be a black swan tonight? Let's wait and see!


--International News Analysis--

Friday Beijing Time20:30Investors will face the baptism of non farm payroll reports. Analysts point out that if the non farm payroll report performs strongly, especially if wage growth exceeds expectations, the US dollar is expected to be boosted, while gold prices may be hit. Foreign media investigation shows that the United States5Monthly non farm employment is expected to increase19Ten thousand, the unemployment rate is3.9%The US Department of Labor(DOL)5month4The data released today shows that the United States4Non farm employment increased16.4Ten thousand people,4The monthly unemployment rate has decreased3.9%, refresh2000Low since the end of the year.


Compared to the past two months, this quarterGDPThe rebound should support a moderate acceleration of employment. The market focus will be more on the level of unemployment and, more importantly, any evidence of wage growth. Foreign media investigation shows that the United States5Monthly average hourly salary and monthly rate are expected to increase0.2%The annual growth rate is expected to climb2.6%。 U.S.A4Monthly average hourly salary growth rate0.1%Expected growth0.2%, the previous value is corrected to growth0.2%； U.S.A4Monthly average hourly wage annual growth rate2.6%Expected growth2.7%, the previous value is corrected to growth2.6%If salary data performs well, the gold market will be under pressure, although it will not affect it6Monthly interest rate hike, but it will strengthen9and12The expectation of a monthly interest rate hike, but it is worth noting that there are no obvious signs of wage increases in recent non farm employment reports. Will the salary data still disappoint this time?


--Analysis of spot gold market--


Yesterday's strong performance in the Asia Europe market was hit back to its original form in the late session of the US market, with the daily chart rising and falling back. The bulls were unable to open up the upper space, and the entire market was still in a correction wave of reverse drawing. The price still hasn't broken through1308And this position is still a multi head valve, whether it can be opened or not means the expansion of upward space. It cannot be broken through this position, and the longer the cycle, the more unfavorable it is for upward movement. In addition, prices hit mid week1292Reverse drawing, this forms a continuous price cycle around1292-1308On the one hand, the sorting of intervals, on the other hand, above1308It is a bearish defense line. Breaking through again means that the market will stop falling and rebound in the short term, and fall below it1292Just formed a continuous decline ahead, leading to a second weak trend. So, we still need to closely monitor it today1292，1308frontline. On the other hand, the focus today is still on non farm sectors, but based on the performance of non farm sectors in the past year, the volatility of non farm sectors is not expected to be too large. In the case of short-term instability, non farm sectors will be the key starting point to dominate the trend in June.


From a intraday perspective, the price rose and fell after midnight, and there was no rebound at the close, but the price did not break through the short-term range. The expected volatility for the day is limited, and the focus is on non farm farming in the evening. The previous value was16.4Wan, expected to be18.8Wan, based solely on recent news, the probability of being bearish today is relatively high. You can refer to itADPThe trend before and after the small-scale non-agricultural period, but we still do not advocate for manipulation, as there is uncertainty in the news. Before non farm payroll, prices remained volatile with resistance from above1302-1303Nearby, can be touched empty once in the afternoon, broken1307Stop loss, target view1296Nearby, lower support corrected to1295-1296In the afternoon, there will be a direct drop, and the test will be effective for a draw. At that time, there will be one more draw, breaking through1293Loss, the goal continues to be to see1302Nearby, short-term daily monitoring range1295-1305Before non farm farming, high selling and low buying can be carried out.


How can we achieve stable returns and win while maintaining stability?


Some fundamental factors must be overcome by profit makers, and every step is a watershed; From the moment you enter this market, don't expect to become rich overnight. Good fund management and trading habits are crucial, and maintaining a fixed position is still the key; A small profitable position and a large losing position will ultimately result in a loss! And if fixed cannot make a profit, then it is a matter of probability and success rate!


Trading indicates the beginning of boredom, which is normal. We are not trading for excitement, trading for excitement can only be a way to stay away from this market. Accepting boredom is also a part of successful trading! If you decide on your own trade, then strictly execute it. In the trend, follow the trend and buy high and buy low in the range. Watch more and move less. Also, don't speculate because of the price, think that the price has dropped enough and buy, and don't short sell because the price has risen sharply. Define the trading signal, which is also the only reason for execution! The rest involves emotions, don't let emotions interfere with your operational decisions!

A few days ago, my friend told me that they went hiking in the desert108The experience of kilometers, two of which really impressed me deeply:1Segmented goals are important.2Belief is important. Really, in the moment of despair, it's just measuring the journey step by step with faith, setting segmented goals for oneself time and time again, silently reciting, everyone's feet ache and blisters, just to see who can persevere better. Similarly, in trading, losses are not inevitable. Many people complain that they love this industry very much, but are struggling to do well and need a way out. In fact, many mistakes stem from oneself. Do we view the market with a gambling mentality or a learning attitude? Many loves only happen on the surface, verbally expressing love without making any effort. Is this love? Recognizing oneself is more important than recognizing the market.


Author of this article: Shan Chenjin


Author's Message: A broad view and appointment, thick accumulation and thin hair!


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The above content is for reference only. Investment carries risks and caution is required when entering the market.