Shan Chenjin:5.31月线收官会出大行情吗？黄金走势分析

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Shan Chenjin:5.31月线收官会出大行情吗？goldTrend analysis
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Summary:周三晚间，金融市场迎来首波美国重磅经济数据的考验。日内公布的ADP就业人数和美国一季度GDP修正值均逊于预期，数据公布之后美元反应不大，黄金则重返千三关口。


--International News Analysis--

The United States announced on Wednesday5monthADPIncreased employment data recorded17.8万人，低于预期增加19.0Ten thousand people;GDPRecorded quarterly annualized rate correction value2.2%，不及预期和前值的2.3%。数据公布后，金银小幅走高，黄金重返1300Gateway.


不过，隔夜公布的美联储经济褐皮书表示，美国短期经济增长前景“大体向好”。褐皮书指出，尽管全球贸易存在风险，但美国工厂在4月末和5月初增产，制造业正在加速，而疲软的消费支出使经济保持温和增长。在本次褐皮书报告中，美联储对经济增长的评估略有提升。


本周是重磅非农周，不过在非农数据公布之前黄金市场已经在地缘风险政治的影响下，在1300关口位置展开了激烈的博弈；周二金价暴涨暴跌走出过山车行情，而昨日日盘中继续在1300附近运行，短期的行情波动比较缓慢；晚间公布的小非农ADP数据以及美国GDP数据暂时也未对黄金做出有力的指引，目前金价仍然持于1300关口运行。随着小非农的公布，后面的数据也将陆续登场；大家注意关注。


--Analysis of spot gold market--


月线又是一根小级别的阴K线，高点1326, low point1282，全月波幅44美金。周线表现则是阴阳交替的震荡回落形态，日线上则是两个类似的形态循环。月初的1302探底低位整理，然后冲高1326回落，走了一个1326-1282的主节奏下跌基本是全月的主节奏波幅，然后月初又是一个1282reach1307的震荡反弹，和前面的形态走法结构完全一致。基本上保持了上半年的主节奏，除了春节前后的2个月行情波幅稍大，趋势延续性较强，完成了1236reach1366的一波多头趋势，其余基本都是在整理。日线四个月的高位区间整理，4，5月份的震荡回落整理。


昨日小区间刚好是1303-1295，高低点循环走一圈，这个时候布局只能是直接进场，如果等有效的测试再去进场那么会发现两个问题，其一利润大打折扣，导致盈亏不平衡，其二错过进场的概率较大，等价格出现再去布局，这本身就略逊一筹，因此勿要因小失大。今日来看，日线收盘上升，并且凌晨后无回落，价格连续在1300之上运行，这就表明了短期价格处于震荡偏强的格局，但从趋势而言，日内预计震荡的概率偏大，当然佐证的关键在于欧盘的强弱，震荡的转折在于延续性。

所以对黄金的思路和态度，我认为1306-1308不破依然不能考虑反转走强的问题。所以暂时还是先考虑1305-1296的区间整理思路。今日亚欧盘回撤见到1297-1296可多，止损1291.5, Objective1302-1305，若午后继续压制在1302，那么再去空。凌晨上升后，今日午后的强弱是决定性的信号，短期操作莫急，只需是等待午后的表现，压制继续做空，回落短多一次，如果直接突破1306,并且欧盘高位，届时也可以跟多一次。


亏损之后做单建议：


1、正视市场


摒弃幻想不要感情用事，过分憧憬将来和缅怀过去。一个充满希望的人是一个美好和快乐的人，但单晨金认为他并不适合做投资家，一位成功的投资者是可以分开他的感情和交易的。市场永远是对的，错的总是自己。


2、勿轻率改变主意


预先订下当日入市的价位和计划，勿因眼前价格涨落影响而轻易改变决定，基于当日价位的变化以及市场消息而临时作出决定是十分危险的。铁军必有铁的纪律。


3、作出适当的暂停


Day after day trading will gradually slow down your judgment. A successful investor said: Whenever I feel my mental state and judgment efficiency is low90%I started not making any money, and when my state was too low90%时，便开始蚀本，故此，我会放下一切而去渡假数周。暂短的休息能令你重新认识市场，重新认识自己，更能帮你看清未来投资的方向。当太近森林时，你甚至不能看清眼前的树。

There is no wine that cannot be drunk, only people who cannot be drunk. This is like pretending to sleep, you can never wake up, people with dreams and pressure can't sleep. After waking up, you only realized that you had made a mistake yesterday, and only after setting up the order did you realize the seriousness of the mistake. At the beginning of the story, there are few beautiful endings, and most end with sadness. In trading, persuading people to stop losses is not a good profession, but taking too many chances is definitely not a good thing. Many mistakes occur, just a small stroke of luck. The place where the trouble arises is a small fire, and a large fire burns oneself out, making it difficult to extinguish the fire. Every time someone asks about their position, it is basically an incurable stage. They take chances all the way, remain stubborn, watch shows all the way, and only seek solutions when there is no solution. At this time, they are basically resigned to fate, and it is almost impossible for one or two words to activate a good account. Cutting off evil thoughts lies at the source, and cutting off luck also lies at the source. At the beginning of each position, set your own maximum loss line, and there is no need to hold it afterwards.


Author of this article: Shan Chenjin


Author's Message: A broad view and appointment, thick accumulation and thin hair!


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The above content is for reference only. Investment carries risks and caution is required when entering the market.