Yu Qi's Discussion on Gold:5.30黄金小非农利多短线陷震荡还会跌吗，后市走势操作解套

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消息面：北京时间周三（5month30Day)20:30公布的美国第一季度实际GDPRecorded quarterly annualized rate correction value2.2%，不及预期和前值的2.3%；美国第一季度实际个人消费支出季率修正值为1%, lower than expected1.2%, previous value is1.1%；第一季度核心PCE物价指数年率修正值为2.3%, lower than expected2.5%, previous value is2.5%。数据公布后，美元波动不大，金银小幅走高，goldreturn1300Gateway.

意大利风险爆发的可能性让整个欧盟地缘政治危机达到较高水平，再叠加贸易战的升温，各大股市哀鸿一片。美元指数强势再次上攻95关口，欧元英镑一蹶不振，本来避险天堂的黄金也没能一飞冲天，承压下行。消息面的影响并没有让黄金直线暴涨，意味着上方压力目前较大，空方力量仍旧较强。技术面上黄金关键压力通道线的打压下，黄金能否坚挺熬过千三关口，打破下跌趋势通道线，还得看本周五大非农数据的情况。









伴随着前段时间黄金价格直线跳水跌破1300美元，虽然行情跌势没有在后续持续扩大，但高度的压力也让黄金难以有所反弹，虽然行情一度回到千三点位上方，但可以看出近期黄金价格依然是在1300美元一线徘徊震荡。最近市场上发生的一系列事件让许多风险资产都遭受了巨大的冲击，那么本周的非农数据是否会给黄金带来一丝助力，帮助金价站稳1300美元呢？要知道过去两个月非农都意外“爆冷”，这一次非农是否会有惊喜出现呢？




据美联储观察工具Fedwatch，美联储今年6Monthly interest rate increase25Bps to1.75%-2%The probability of the interval is83.7%。此外，鉴于ADP数据和非农就业数据存在较强的正相关关系，交易员往往利用ADP报告来进一步评估周五（6month1日）非农就业报告的预期。目前市场预测5月非农新增18.8Ten thousand people, the previous value was an increase16.4Ten thousand people;5月失业率预期3.9%，与预期持平。

黄金走势分析：从技术面来看，日线图上布林缩口，金价运行在布林中轨下方，K线昨日收十字星，5Daily moving average and10日均线金叉上行，附图指标MACD快慢线在零轴下方金叉上行，红色动能柱开始放量；黄金周二上演“过山车”行情，多空在千三关口激烈争夺，亚欧盘中守住1296低点反抽触及日内高点1306.10，但好景不长，美盘时段受美元坚挺。黄金受挫快速回落再次刷新了日内低点至1293。高低点集中在欧美盘时段过渡。最终尾盘再反抽1304，但高点仍未突破，收盘在1300附近，日线级别录得一根上下影线等长的中阳线，日线进入夹角区间震荡，MA30AndMA10的夹角剧烈争夺，昨日有虚破但未收盘在MA10下方，使得短线方向依旧不明显。加上周五的非农比较近了，数据面之前交投谨慎，就越缺少突破的量能。四小时图上，布林缩口，金价运行在布林中轨附近，5Daily moving average and10日均线粘合走平，附图指标MACD快慢线死叉下行，绿色动能柱弱势放量。小时图上布林开口平行，金价运行在布林下轨上方，5Daily moving average and10日均线死叉下行，附图指标MACD在零轴下方有交金叉之势，红色动能柱开始冒头。综合来看，黄金整体还是处于震荡格局，故晚间操作上玉琪论金建议回调做多为主，上方关注1306-1307One line of resistance, pay attention below1292一线支撑。添加笔者玉琪论金WeiXinnumber(zyq1970622)Daily market analysis, unpacking strategies, and guidance on medium - and long-term layout are all included. like-minded individuals are welcome to come and have a long conversation!

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Comprehensive guidance teacher:Yuqi's Gold Analysis Team






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