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5.28早评朝韩再次会晤避险降温,黄金静观下周非农和美联储

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  人生是一场博弈,我们随时都在下注,或输或赢,或悲或喜,没有一种微笑可以永恒,没有一种哭泣非要长久。有时候,是眼泪清晰了我们的视线,是困苦拓宽了我们的心胸。
  
  不要在意脚下的那些坎坷,它们都是铺垫你生命高度的基石。一时的输赢并不重要,重要的是我们在重重的博弈中,不要迷失曾经的自己。
  
  国际基本面解读——
  
  上周朝美双方隔空“对骂”后,特朗普决然发出一封取消“特金会”的信函,这令全球惊讶,也同时凉透了gold空头的心,令黄金快速飙升10美元。不过本周末,事件发展又峰回路转,美朝双方又分别释放“希望双方领导会晤能够如期举行”的信号。这似乎暗示着“特金会”又有戏了,也意味着黄金、日元等避险品种又面临下行风险。
  
5.28早评朝韩再次会晤避险降温,黄金静观下周非农和美联储919 / author:Ming Xuding Gold / PostsID:1132904


  明旭分析认为,“特金会”的反复无常,金价在本周先跌后涨,重回千三关口。展望下周,将率先迎来美国的“小非农”ADP就业数据以及一季度GDP修正值,后半周还要公布核心物价指数及非农报告,另外经济褐皮书料对美指能否持续上涨做出前瞻性指引。当然最重要的莫过于一个月一次的非农数据,包含就业人数变动,失业率以及时薪增速。因美国早已实现充分就业,市场将焦点于时薪增速数据,它是影响通胀的主因,而通胀又会左右美联储加息决定,最终反应在美指的强弱。黄金和美元长期的负相关关系不得忽视。
  
  国际黄金技术面走势分析——
  
  虽然近期明旭一直都看好金价受到1280附近支撑并有一波反弹修正,但也仅仅只是反弹修正,笔者明旭还是那句话,什么时候加息金价什么时候开始真正的上涨。突破1300关口所展现的强势在当前来看完全就是地缘事件引发的避险推动,急促而短暂。从周五金价再涨的乏力表现就可以看出风险事件对整个金融市场的影响甚小,单看美元走强就能预示到黄金再度跌破1300关口的概率很大。本周内金价先跌后涨,最终上涨突破1300关口实际给予多头带来极大信心,但周五的回落让市场多头陷入困惑,短期内若不能守稳在千三上方,空头寻求支撑将在1290关口,再破后就能重回1280区间,所以下周初走势的强弱对于后市方向发展的延续具有极其重要的指导意义。
  
  周线方向还是偏空头,只要1310的颈线位置不被有效突破,空头的大方向就没有被改变,1310下方反弹仍然是做空的良机,中线下行支撑位在1280关口。从日线来看,虽然周四收大阳线突破千三关口,但整体仍处于下降趋势线的压制和1307-1309的水平压力下方,日线级别仍然是空头方向,此轮反弹仅仅是第四浪的调整而已,只不过反弹的力度比较大,达到了1326-1282第三浪跌幅度的61.8%,上方的重要压力为1307-1309,在其下方做空为主,下方的重要支撑在1280-1285If it falls below1280,则空头趋势还将延续,下方将有可能测试到1265-1270附近。下周比较关键,我们拭目以待。明旭祝您交易愉快!
  
5.28早评朝韩再次会晤避险降温,黄金静观下周非农和美联储176 / author:Ming Xuding Gold / PostsID:1132904


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