Shan Chenjin:5.15黄金再度破底，后市行情怎么看？

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Shan Chenjin:5.15gold再度破底，后市行情怎么看？


Summary:昨日，美联储票委梅斯特再展“鹰”姿，中美贸易不断传递积极信号，美元指数走强，黄金不断遭受重压，连夜跳“高台”。今夜，市场除了迎来万众瞩目的“恐怖数据”以外，还将看到美联储上演“三巨头”齐聚的戏码。


--International News Analysis--

Tonight?20:30，有“恐怖数据”之称的美国4月零售销售数据将重磅出炉。由于消费支出占美国经济产出的70%，所以美国4月零售销售数据是最受关注的经济指标，常常成为美联储强调利率的“风向标”，势必会给金融市场带来“狂风巨浪”。投资者可以通过这一数据以此来判断美联储加息次数。


从美联储官员近来发表的讲话中来看，市场预计美联储年内将继续加息。从联邦基金利率futures来看，美联储今年还会加息两到三次，高于联储预测的2018年还会加息两次。与此同时，美国近期经济数据也应证了市场的预期，通胀指标13个月来首次触及2%，失业率低于4%，为世纪之交以来最低水平。若“恐怖数据”此次表现高于预期，将提升市场对美联储年内多次加息的预期，利好美元，打击黄金。若“恐怖数据”表现令市场失望，则可能对美元构成压力，提振黄金。


另外今晚22:00，美联储将迎来一件大事。美国参议院金融委员会将在今晚就提名克拉里达担任美联储副主席和理事、以及提名鲍曼担任美联储理事举行听证会。听证会通过之后双方将就当前的美联储货币政策立场进行投票，就现在的情况来看，克拉里达和鲍曼有可能会做与当前美联储大部分官员的立场一致的决定，即渐进性加息，这有可能进一步对美元构成压制。


--Analysis of spot gold market--


1326是前期1356-1302回撤中途的1332，1326，1320几个非常关键的修正点，同时也是前期1365retracement 1302的反弹0.618黄金分割线位置。所以上周五我们看到尽管行情冲破了1318-1320压力，但是周五尾盘还是出现了回落收阴。那么目前来看相对就明朗了。上周五冲高1326回落，前高外加0.618黄金分割位，遇阻回撤。周一昨日横盘之后午夜下跌收阴，今日又是一个延续性震荡回落，依次跌破了1318-1320的顶底转化位，同时跌破了1313的关键支撑。那么短线行情继续回归弱势，震荡获利，或将对1300再度发起攻击。如果跌破还是去测试周线级别的1285-1280unchanged.

这两天白盘行情表现尤其的小，3-4美金横盘整理。昨日是夜间下探，今日是全天震荡回落，但是从目前来看行情还是延续了上周五的一个走势。1326冲高回落，表明1318-1320的关键位置虚破，三角整理之后午下跌，今日早盘横盘无反弹修正继续回落，欧盘1312停顿之后刷新低点。那么晚间继续看空不变，同时这轮还是去考虑测试1300能否破位的问题。黄金晚盘反弹1311-1310Short nearby, stop loss1315.5Looking back at the target1304-1302后市跌破1302-1300继续保持弱势下跌思路，去考虑周线1285-1280Support.


如何才能稳定收益，稳中求胜？


Some fundamental factors must be overcome by profit makers, and every step is a watershed; From the moment you enter this market, don't expect to become rich overnight. Good fund management and trading habits are crucial, and maintaining a fixed position is still the key; A small profitable position and a large losing position will ultimately result in a loss! And if fixed cannot make a profit, then it is a matter of probability and success rate!


Trading indicates the beginning of boredom, which is normal. We are not trading for excitement, trading for excitement can only be a way to stay away from this market. Accepting boredom is also a part of successful trading! If you decide on your own trade, then strictly execute it. In the trend, follow the trend and buy high and buy low in the range. Watch more and move less. Also, don't speculate because of the price, think that the price has dropped enough and buy, and don't short sell because the price has risen sharply. Define the trading signal, which is also the only reason for execution! The rest involves emotions, don't let emotions interfere with your operational decisions!

Opportunities sprout amidst opposition, erupt amidst discussions, and shatter amidst cheers. The market is running, with trends emerging between long and short positions, and direction determined by ups and downs. A trend market is unlikely to end in a short period of time. If it ends quickly, it is not a trend at all. People often suffer from greed and want to seize the highest or lowest point in the market, which leads to missing the opportunity to enter while waiting for the best point. This is a problem that all investors have. Profit is equal to a good idea combined with a good method. No matter how good the idea is, if the operation method is not good, it will be in vain. Pursuing gains and selling losses is a skill that many people are good at, but taking advantage of the situation to increase positions is like walking on thin ice and being afraid. This is a typical operation mode of not being able to hold on to the right and holding on to the wrong. Profit starts with changing one's mindset. Don't do things you don't understand, don't chase after high-risk ones, don't pursue overnight wealth, don't expect to always take profits. The mentality naturally becomes calm, and the right decisions are made when the mentality is good. No one can make good decisions when they are emotionally excited.


Author of this article: Shan Chenjin


Author's message: The purest financial management, the highest level of enjoyment!


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The above content is for reference only. Investment carries risks and caution is required when entering the market.