Shan Chenjin:5.14黄金后市还会跌吗？日内走势分析及策略

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Shan Chenjin:5.14gold后市还会跌吗？日内走势分析及策略
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Summary:面对美元持续三周的涨势，黄金市场表现出了相当的韧性，而现在美元的动能开始减弱，后市黄金将有有机会攀升至其交易区间的高端。在结束连续三周的跌势后，金价在本周小幅收涨，较上周五上涨0.5%。
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--International News Analysis--

黄金后市还会跌吗？


在笔者看来上周影响黄金走势还是看特朗普的伊朗核协议，美元走势，美俄之间的纠纷，首先伊朗核协议，中东地区仍是地缘政治的易爆地带，如果冲突持续升级将对避险资产金银有利，最重要的是，如果美国对伊朗实施制裁，伊朗的黄金需求可能在未来几个月”激增”。 


美俄方面普京第四次连任后表示为了加强俄罗斯的“经济主权”，有必要与美元“决裂”，尤其是在面对美国近来的惩罚措施以及“出于政治动机”而限制贸易的情况下。大家都知道普京一直与美元“势不两立”，他不断谴责美国以“美元垄断地位”成为全球经济“寄生虫”。他声称，全世界都看得到，美元垄断地位是不稳定的，这对许多人来说都是相当危险的，因此普金也是大量抛售美元，大量购买黄金，笔者有依据认为黄金会迎来春天。


--黄金上周做单回顾--


Monday Gold1315空过夜持有，周二欧盘1314继续空，晚间空单1306精准离场出局。周三昨日欧盘1306-1307多，到位1314-1315出局。晚盘1315-1316空，过夜目前又到1311。周四昨日过夜1315Empty to1311-1310，欧盘1315再空又到1311，晚上调整1315空后调仓出局，改变思路1317as many as1323。周五亚欧盘观察，美盘回撤跟多，但是实际行情依然没有展开有效的上攻，尾盘美元小幅反弹，黄金晚盘冲高1326遇阻前期高点，到位1318-1317。我们给出的1322回撤多过夜持仓，暂时设置的1317止损，算是本周唯一的思路失误，目前如果手上仍然有多单的建议靠近1322-1323保本出。


--Analysis of spot gold market--


From major cycles4小时走势来看，周五冲高回落，虽然破1325，但凌晨走出大幅回撤，那么需要谨慎对待，多一点理性，再加上4小时前期阻力位1325明显形成短期压力，依托这一线看下行没有问题，剩下的时间换取空间，虽然大周期4小时均线指标MA5Clearly wornMA10The daily moving average is located at0轴上方运行，配合附图指标MACDJincha continues to increase its volume,4小时看好震荡上行走势。


从短期小时线走势来看，连阳之后，价格刷新高点回撤，但是回撤幅度逾8美金左右，那么周一谨慎布局短线多，理由很简单，目前1323.5明显小双顶回撤，看空的同时，也不是说不能做多，只是现在短线多点位比较被动，再加上短期均线指标MA5Clearly wornMA10The daily moving average is located at0轴下方运行，配合附图指标MACD死叉放量，小时线看好震荡下行走势，综合近期走势来看，本周一上方需要重点关注1323.5-1325Resistance level, pay attention below1315-1312.5底部支撑。


综合来看周五美盘冲高回落，也就是4小时下行趋势线阻力位1325，而走出一波震荡回撤。而短线趋势面临小幅调整，依托1323.5继续看下行，大趋势保持看多思路，只是现在点位做多，点位比较尴尬，等待理想点位布局。另外美元指数高位盘整，不是好事，对黄金仍然构成强压力，近期重点关注美元的动态，操作方面反抽做空为主，回撤做多为辅。


--Suggestions for spot gold operation--


1Backpumping1323.5短线空，止损1327, look at the goal1313


2Below1312.5短线多，止损1308, look at the goal1318


How to correctly stop loss in spot investment?


As is well known, investment involves both returns and risks, so there is a possibility of losses during the trading process. In order to better control risks and reduce losses, investors need to learn to take stop loss measures. So, how to correctly stop losses in spot precious metal investments?


1Treat stop loss with a calm attitude


Stop loss is one of the main measures for precious metal investors to manage risks. From an operational perspective, although investors have no errors in their thinking and principles, the execution results of anything are probabilistic and difficult to guarantee 100% accuracy. Secondly, the establishment of the stop loss principle also needs to be continuously improved, and corresponding measures should be taken according to different situations. Therefore, the existence of stop loss is of great significance in the operation process, and regardless of the outcome, investors should strictly adhere to it.


2Execution of stop loss awareness


In general, investors should set a stop loss point before entering the market and immediately execute it when the actual situation matches the stop loss principle. Do not hold a lucky mentality and delay the stop loss with various excuses, as this will only cause losses to continue to expand. Therefore, investors should adhere to less thinking and more action when executing stop losses to avoid making incorrect judgments due to excessive thinking. You should know that the issuance of stop loss signals is not something that investors think of themselves, but rather a manifestation of objective facts. Therefore, it is right to firmly execute them.


3Stop loss thinking needs to be improved


As a qualified investor, stop loss should be viewed more thoroughly, because in a sense, stop loss can help everyone avoid greater losses, but it itself cannot generate profits. For investors, the success or failure of stop loss is a thing of the past. What is important is the next step. Investors must adjust their mindset in a timely manner and develop a more comprehensive and scientific investment operation plan after the stop loss, in order to improve accuracy and reduce the probability of stop loss recurrence in the next step.

机会都是在反对声中萌芽，议论声中爆发，叫好声中幻灭。行情运行，多空博弈间出趋势，涨跌起伏间定方向，一波趋势行情是不太可能在很短时间结束的，若很快的结束的，那根本就不是所谓的趋势，人往往受贪婪的心理总想抓住盘中的最高点或最低点，以至于在等待最佳点位的时候错过进场机会，这是所有投资者都存在的问题。获利等于好的思路加上好的方法，思路再好，操作方法不好一样会白干一场，追涨杀跌是很多人的拿手绝活，但顺势加仓却如履薄冰、担惊受怕，这就是典型的对了拿不住，错了死扛的操作模式。获利从改变思路开始，看不懂的不做，高风险的不追，不追求一夜暴富，不奢望始终止盈，心态就自然淡定，正确的决定都是在心态良好的时候做出的，没有任何人能在情绪激动的时候做出好的决定。


Author of this article: Shan Chenjin


Author's Message: A broad view and appointment, thick accumulation and thin hair!


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The above content is for reference only. Investment carries risks and caution is required when entering the market.